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TF Metals Report: Even More Charts

tfmetalsreport.com
FEBRUARY 21, 2012


Tuesday, February 21, 2012 at 3:43 pm

No sense dillydallying. Let's get right to it.

Let's start off-topic a bit; I just have to give you an updated ES chart. Again, the ES is the mini S&P 500 futures contract. It is the functional equivalent of stock trading for maniacal futures traders, such as myself. What is so comical (and sickening) about this chart is the consistency of it. Not only does the chart continue rising at a perfect 45-degree angle, there are so very few DOWN days. In fact, there's a stretch of days in early January where the ES rose 14 out if 15 days! This is a nearly impossible occurrence in a non-manipulated market. Then, after 4 consecutive down days in late January, the ES has risen 10 out of 14 trading days this month.

paper_2-21pmes.jpg

But I'll admit...maybe I'm just crazy. Maybe the stock market is completely free and fair and prices are rising because of such fundamental things as actual earnings and projected earnings. If that's the case, we must be in a low-inflation, happy-consumer, increasing-margin Wonderland! Uhhhhhhh, maybe not. See below:

paper_2-21pmcrude4.jpgpaper_2-21pmcrudew.jpg

The obvious question regarding the metals is now: What happens next? Today's open interest numbers (basis Friday) look OK and the 1-month silver lease rate I'm so worried about has backed off to -0.35%. Let's see what happens in the next 24-48 hours. Will gold fail again at 1760-65? Will silver fail again at 34.40?

paper_2-21pmgold4.jpgpaper_2-21pmsilv4.jpg

Since there was an absence of coordinated, Cartel raids today, we have to expect a beatdown overnight, likely beginning at the appointed hour of 3:00 am EST when London opens. Whether or not we get a solid FULBMA on the Comex tomorrow will go a long way toward determining whether or not this present attempt to overtake 1750 and 34 will be successful. And I hope we are successful. Frankly, I'm sick and tired of fighting this preliminary battle. (I suppose that that is exactly how the Cartels want me to feel.) 1750 and 34 are just the warmups. They are the PM equivalents of August, NFL exhibition football. The real battles begin when gold reaches 1800 and silver reaches 35.50. These are The Battles Royale. Beyond those levels lay new alltime highs in gold and $40+ silver, therefore, they will be vigorously defended.

paper_2-21pmgoldw.jpgpaper_2-21pmsilvw.jpg

That's it. That's all I've got. I hope that all of you were richly rewarded by the action in the metals today and that my current obsession with the CoT and lease rates didn't keep you from participating. Personally, I had an order in on Friday to buy an April $1750 gold call at 23. It only fell to 24 and I never got filled. Rats. I haven't had the time nor inclination to check the price today to see how much fiat I didn't make. Oh well, whaddayagonnado? Have a great overnight and let's see where everything goes tomorrow.

TF

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