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Why Is Gold Not Going Up? The Bears Vanished in June
Every futures market has two sides. Gold has been running
August 17, 2026
Silver Rises Over 120% YTD Invest Now 
Every futures market has two sides. Gold has been running
The bond market’s most reliable recession warning has a direct
Silver is up more than 2.5% on Monday while gold
Five distinct market developments on August 17 point to the
The 60-day US-Iran MOU expired this weekend with no replacement
Gold is up 10% in August from near $4,000 —
The University of Michigan’s August Consumer Sentiment Index fell to
Five data prints this week — retail sales, consumer sentiment,
Two soft inflation prints shifted the Fed’s September rate-hike odds
Fed Chair Warsh calls Jackson Hole a chance to frame
The Austrian Gold Philharmonic has been struck in .9999 fine
Gold hit a two-month high on Wednesday, then gave back
Two consecutive soft inflation prints — July PPI flat, CPI
When the US economy loses 23,000 jobs and gold climbs
China’s central bank just recorded its largest single-month gold purchase
The Fed releases two inflation numbers every month — headline
Commodity indices give gold as little as 7.2% of their
Five unrelated forces moved gold and silver higher on August
Gold climbed above $4,427 on Wednesday as markets positioned ahead
Gold hit a two-month high while Barrick stock dropped 6%.
Gold touched a two-month high of $4,435 intraday on August
Chinese gold ETFs just posted 14 straight sessions of inflows
Most people assume central banks, China, or Wall Street own
Silver is up 3.65% today while gold rises 1.04%. The
The Fed printed trillions. Inflation didn’t follow — not immediately.
Trump told Axios the US is only “semi-negotiating” with Iran
Gold hit a seven-week high after July’s jobs shock cut
Gold pulled back Monday after its best weekly gain since
A direct rollover to a gold IRA is completely tax-free
The Fed spent six months focused on one problem: inflation.
Five inputs hit gold and silver in the same session
The South African Krugerrand is the world’s first gold bullion
Four global market stories — US equity concentration, Japan’s yen,
Gold rallied 6% this week after a weak ADP jobs
The London Fix officially prices unallocated gold — a credit
Gold is up 4% and silver is up 4% as
Everyone pictures the same scene: one Monday morning, the dollar
July ADP private payrolls came in at just 44,000, less
The CPI has been revised three times since 1983. Each
Gold is up 0.70% this morning as Treasury Secretary Bessent
Everyone’s watching Friday’s jobs report expecting it to unlock rate
Gold is down 5% from year-end 2025 — not 27%.
Most investors check their portfolio every day. Very few have
The ISM Manufacturing PMI just hit 55.6% — its strongest
Gold opened Monday higher on Iran de-escalation news. By mid-morning
The mechanism that sent gold lower for five months just
The Canadian Gold Maple Leaf is 99.99% pure gold, carries
In Q2 2026, gold ETFs shed 45 tonnes. Central banks
Gold opened above $4,100 this morning and gave it back
The Federal Reserve is the most powerful institution affecting what
June PCE fell to 3.7% — the number gold investors
The Fed held rates for the fifth straight meeting. PCE
Brent crude surged 7.9% on July 29 after Iran fired
The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold rates on July
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at US forces overnight.
In the middle of the 1970s gold bull market, gold
The Fed announces its rate decision today at 2:00 p.m.
Gold is down $48 today. Five separate market signals explain
Consumer confidence fell to 90.8 in July as the Present
Gold is down $46 this morning as Fed rate hike
The petrodollar system gave the US dollar its dominance for
The Fed votes Wednesday. Most coverage will tell you to
A self-directed IRA is the only IRS-sanctioned way to hold
Oil dropped 7% on Monday after the US and Iran
Robert Kiyosaki predicts $35,000 gold after a systemic collapse. Goldman
Silver recovered on Friday, July 24, 2026, after falling roughly
Most investors think a diversified portfolio means they are protected.
Newmont just reported $2.2 billion in quarterly earnings — during
The US government holds more gold than any entity on
US initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 for the week
Everything you feel is wrong with the economy is real.
Gold fell 1.6% today as Houthi militants attacked two Saudi
On one day last month, bullish sentiment on gold stocks
How much gold should your portfolio hold? The generic 5–10%
Gold climbed to a two-week high on July 22, 2026,
Gold is holding above $4,000 and silver is surging nearly
Gold fell nearly 28% from its January 2026 all-time high.
Silver is up nearly 5% this morning as mediators proposed
JPMorgan cut its Q4 2026 gold price forecast by 25%
China’s largest banks are terminating retail leveraged gold trading on
HSBC cut its 2026 average gold forecast by $304 on
Silver rose 1.55% today even as crude oil surged 3%
Hong Kong’s Precious Metals Central Clearing Company ran its first
State Street’s July 2026 Monthly Gold Monitor targets $5,000 per
Gold fell 3.4% in the week ending July 17 —
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index hit 41.4 in July —
Fed Chair Warsh told Congress to stop trading his guidance
The dollar has lost 87% of its purchasing power since
Gold fell to $4,016 and silver dropped 2.6% Thursday after
The gold-silver ratio hit 70:1 today as silver fell 1.4%
June CPI and PPI both came in below consensus. Gold
The Fed chair told Congress today that rate policy gave
Silver trades at $58.55 — down 52% from its January
Gold jumped $90 this morning after June CPI printed its
Excerpt:
The 10-5-3 rule helps investors set return expectations
Gold jumped $90 and silver rose 3% after June CPI
Silver fell 3.8% on July 13 while gold dropped 2.9%.
Trump’s 20% Hormuz toll sent oil higher and gold to
Gold trades 28% below its January record as Fed rate-hike
Gold is down 1.4% today on fresh Iran strikes. The
Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over on July 10. Gold
Gold hit $5,589 in January 2026. It trades near $4,100
HSBC cut its 2026 average gold forecast to $4,560 from
Gold price cycles operate across four distinct time horizons —
NY Fed President John Williams says AI-driven demand is now
Gold is trading at $4,134 today as two market-moving events
Bank of America cut its 2026 average gold price forecast
The June FOMC minutes revealed a Fed split 9-to-8 on
Gold is trading at $4,045 today — right on the
Trump called the Iran ceasefire “over” at the NATO summit
The People’s Bank of China added 14.93 tonnes of gold
When the U.S. jobs report misses expectations, gold and silver
In 1913, Congress passed a law to control the banks.
Gold fell 1.1% on a Hormuz missile strike — not
Bank of America placed current equity speculation at its most
What is financial repression? It is one of four moves
The Federal Reserve releases the FOMC minutes from its June
Five major institutions — State Street, Goldman Sachs, the World
Gold technical analysis explains how moving averages, RSI, MACD, and
June’s jobs report added just 57,000 positions — less than
You’ll never buy gold or silver at the spot price
Gold and silver rose after June’s jobs report missed and
Gold demand hit a record 5,000+ tonnes in 2025 while
Gold rose 2.49% and silver 3.85% as rate-hike bets unwound
Excerpt:
Sell physical gold or silver, and the IRS doesn’t
Gold and silver jumped Wednesday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
Most gold storage isn’t allocated. Here’s how to verify yours
ADP’s June jobs report missed forecasts, but the gold price
Gold hit an all-time high of $5,589 on January 28,
OCBC cut its year-end gold target by $740 this morning
Gold entered Q2 at around $4,700. It is leaving at
Gold costs roughly $4,000 per ounce today. Here are the
Every month, one government report moves gold’s paper price more
With inflation at 4.2% and the national average savings rate
The Fed’s June dot plot had 18 projections, not 19.
Gold is down 5% this week. The World Gold Council’s
Every time a government issues currency, it pockets the difference
The gold-silver ratio just closed the week at 69.3:1 —
Strong GDP data is actually bad news for gold’s paper
The government confirmed inflation hit a three-year high. Gold
Approximately 298 tonnes of gold inside ETFs is currently held
Gold broke below $4,000 today for the first time since
Gold and silver are under pressure from two directions at
Gold is down 1.7% today. Silver is down 5.4%. The
Silver dropped more than 4% after Kevin Warsh’s first Fed
Silver is down 5%. Gold is down 1.75%. Same catalyst,
Oil falling, a PM resigning, a DXY at 13-month highs
The Goldman Sachs gold cut explained: it’s a valid model
Gold hit $5,589 in January. Today it’s at $4,177. Morgan
The Fed doesn’t watch CPI. It watches PCE — and
Goldman Sachs just cut its year-end gold forecast to $4,900.
TIPS and gold both claim to hedge inflation — but
US markets are closed for Juneteenth. The gold price dropping
The Fed’s June 2026 dot plot split the committee down
Barclays held its $4,791 gold target through a 26% correction.
The gold/silver ratio fell from 85:1 to 64:1 in five
Silver climbed 2.8% on the Iran peace deal this morning,
Kevin Warsh scrapped forward guidance and skipped the dot plot
The World Gold Council’s 2026 survey asked 76 central banks
GoldSilver’s new chapter is here. A fully animated Creature from
Gold is down 22% from its January high. But five
The Fed held rates steady. That wasn’t the story. Kevin
The Iran peace deal removed the war premium from gold.
Silver is up while oil burns down. Most headlines are
Silver has fallen 42% from its January 2026 all-time
The Iran peace deal sent oil to a two-month low
The Iran peace deal was supposed to hurt gold. It
Wall Street’s $6,000 gold forecast isn’t built on the price
Gold and silver surged Friday on Iran peace deal hopes,
Over the past 30 days, silver has fallen more than
Every bearish macro catalyst landed today at once — hot
The Iran war should be pushing gold higher. Instead it
War is supposed to lift gold. This war is different.
Gold is at ~$4,165 — 25% below its all-time high.
May CPI came in at 4.2% — the fastest pace
For 90 years, gold has moved in a recurring tide
Gold is down 9% from its April high near $4,800.
Goldman Sachs just pushed every 2026 rate cut to 2027.
When you deposit money at a bank, you are not
Five forces are moving gold and silver right now. Strong
Gold has fallen 22% from its January 2026 all-time high
Silver fell nearly 6% after May’s blowout jobs report sent
Valcambi’s incoming CEO processed 1,000 tonnes of gold last year
Gold slipped to $4,448 this week as rate-hike fears and
Central banks reshape gold markets through the most concentrated sovereign
Gold is holding near $4,481 with rate hike risk rising
Rate hike odds just hit 85%. Gold is up anyway.
Five data points landed Wednesday that should have pressured gold.
In 1933, the US government ordered Americans to surrender their
Friday’s jobs report doesn’t just move gold for 48 hours.
The ECB just confirmed gold has overtaken U.S. Treasuries as
The ISM Manufacturing Prices-Paid Index hit 82.1 in May —
Gold went from $35 in 1971 to around $4,500 today
Fort Knox holds $662 billion in gold not independently audited
Five years ago, “debasement trade” was Austrian economics jargon. Today
Most assets have a simple relationship with stagflation. Silver doesn’t.
Yesterday’s BEA data confirmed what gold investors have been tracking
Most guides tell you gold is safer and silver is
Traders are selling. The institutional buying trend, however, hasn’t moved
Modern investing feels overwhelming because the system — not the
Gold dropped to a two-month low on May 28. But
For forty years, the 60/40 portfolio was the default prescription
Silver is falling more than twice as fast as gold
Gold and silver sold off sharply as markets reopened after
UBS trimmed its year-end gold forecast to $5,500 on rising
A 0.23% drop on May 26 brought gold to $4,500.32
Since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, the dollar
Gold is falling today. The Iran conflict, oil prices, and
Gold is valuable because no other element combines physical scarcity,
Silver climbed nearly three times as much as gold on
Nearly three-quarters of the world’s most sophisticated investors hold no
Iran news moved gold in opposite directions on two
Gold dropped half a percent on Iran peace optimism today.
More than half of all silver mined each year gets
In a single news cycle, the World Gold Council, Russia’s
Silver’s 12% drop versus gold’s 3% isn’t a fluke —
Bank of America has set a $6,000 gold price target
The Fed just released its most hawkish minutes in over
The complete guide to Silver IRA rules — what the
Kevin Warsh arrived at the Fed with a bold agenda
Incrementum hit its $4,800 gold target four years early. Russia
Gold dropped to ~$4,502 this morning on rising yields and
For most of recorded history, trade between nations was governed
Central banks are buying gold at near-record pace. BRICS+ nations
Trump called off a planned strike on Iran Monday afternoon.
The gold-to-oil ratio has tracked monetary and economic conditions for
Trump’s decision to pause a planned Iran strike sent gold
Most gold doesn’t move when it’s “traded” — it changes
Goldman Sachs revealed central bank gold demand was being systematically
One year ago, Moody’s completed a 15-year process — stripping
Silver dropped ~10% after the Trump-Xi summit ended without a
The Trump-Xi Beijing summit priced in a trade breakthrough that
Gold hit an all-time high of $5,589 in January 2026
Five things drove gold and silver lower this week —
The World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projects a
Silver fell 10× harder than gold on May 14, 2026
Silver hit $121.64 in January, corrected hard through April,
Central banks purchased a net 244 metric tons of gold
Gold is holding near all-time highs because five institutional systems
With gold above $4,600 and silver trading at historically unprecedented
Indian rupee banknotes beside a 1000g fine gold bullion bar
Trump’s first Beijing visit since 2017 puts rare earth supply
The “Bond King” has a message for investors still holding
April CPI hit 3.8% — and gold dropped. If that
Gold is trading near $4,694 — roughly 16% below its
April CPI just printed 3.8% — the highest reading since
The gold/silver ratio dropped from 62.05 to 54.94 in under
India’s PM just asked 1.4 billion people to stop buying
Gold is near $4,717/oz and the reasons run deeper than
Gold has pulled back roughly 16% from its January
Silver hit an all-time high of $121.67 in January
April payrolls hit 115,000 — more than double the 55,000
Gold is trading near $4,700/oz while Brent crude surged past
April payrolls smashed forecasts, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire held under pressure,
War usually pushes gold higher. But since Operation Epic Fury
Warren Buffett has avoided gold for decades — but his
The World Gold Council’s April commentary carries a loaded title:
Silver hit $82 today — not because of silver news,
Gold and Bitcoin both claim the “hard asset” crown —
Hyperinflation doesn’t always start at the printing press. When people
On May 7, 2026, gold hit $4,746 and silver crossed
Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Yet
ADP printed 109,000 jobs in April — a beat by
Gold rose 3% on Iran peace news Wednesday. It
Stocks are at historically extreme valuations. The 40-year bond bull
Five US data stories from May 6, 2026 — ADP
Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025 at
Gold and silver spiked Wednesday after Axios reported the US
The IMF spent weeks building its 2026 economic forecast. On
Gold has crossed $5,000. Silver has broken $100. With precious
Fear moves faster than greed — and gold has proven
Gold held through missiles, rate fears, and a central bank
Gold has pulled back 18% from its January 2026 all-time
Economists expect just 49,000 jobs on May 8 —
The gold-silver ratio has expanded to 62.05:1 — silver is
Gold and silver share the same label—but they don’t play
Five verified market briefs for May 4, 2026: stagflation confirmed
Less than one ounce of deliverable silver backs every seven
When governments abandoned gold-backed money in the 1970s, they didn’t
Gold is trading at $4,648/oz — up 41% from a
Most investors glance at the gold price per ounce and
GDP is up. So is inflation. Savings are down. Real
Gold fell around 15% from its all-time high while inflation
Asian investors drove physical gold bar demand to an all-time
For the third consecutive quarter, the BEA stripped investment silver
The Roman suit myth says gold has always bought
Most investors debate gold vs. silver. The smarter question is
PCE inflation hit 3.5% in March — the highest since
The incoming Fed Chair wants to change how inflation is
Every year you delay a gold and silver IRA is
Gold is down, oil is surging, and the Fed is
Silver has pulled back 40% from its 2026 all-time high.
Most dollar headlines are either pure panic or total dismissal.
Turkey sold over 100 tonnes of gold to defend the
Every time the Strait of Hormuz briefly reopens, gold spikes.
When gold or silver prices fall, the real question isn’t
Oil hit $100 for the first time since early April.
Global personal wealth stands at $471 trillion. Privately held gold
Powell chairs his last FOMC. The rate decision is priced
Gold has pulled back 16% from its January 2026 all-time
Iran’s Hormuz proposal bounced silver. The blockade hit 38 ships.
Gold has pulled back 16% from its January 2026 all-time
The COMEX May 2026 silver contract hits First Notice Day
Every fiat currency in history has lost purchasing power over
The DOJ dropped its Powell probe on April 24, clearing
Gold is 16% off its all-time high but up 42%
BofA says silver could hit $309. The CME just made
Central Bank Digital Currencies are already in active pilots across
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is tracking Q1 2026 growth
Gold is trading near $4,707 on April 23 as the
Gold has surged 41% over the past year and hit
Five market stories from April 23, 2026 — and what
Every major dollar devaluation cycle since 1971 has produced a
The US just froze Iraq’s own oil dollars. Iran seized
The urge to sell gold during a rough stretch feels
China’s silver imports hit 173% above the 10-year seasonal average
Switzerland’s 30% gold export surge shows institutional demand is rising
Gold peaked near $5,250 in early 2026 and has held
Gold is up 43% in a year and recently hit
Silver is up 2% while gold gains 1%. The gold-silver
Gold has fallen to $4,681 as the Iran ceasefire expires
Silver currently trades around $80 per ounce after pulling back
Gold and silver market update — April 21, 2026 In this update: Five stories made headlines this week that have nothing obvious to do with gold — tariff refunds, Apple’s leadership change, a weakening dollar, Canada’s political shift, and an AI productivity bust. Together, they are gold structural tailwinds. Here’s what each one means. Who’s Actually Getting the $166 Billion in Tariff Refunds? Not you. The US government opened a refund portal this week for $166 billion in tariff money — duties the Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional in February. Over 56,000 importers have now registered, claiming $127 billion in Phase 1 alone. However, the refunds
Gold hit a record $5,589/oz in January 2026 and is
Gold is down 10% since the Iran War began —
Silver surged 147% in 2025 and hit an all-time high
Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing is the most consequential signal for
The IMF just confirmed what gold has been pricing in
The US Navy seized an Iranian ship Sunday, oil surged
Oil crashed 11% on Friday when Iran reopened the Strait
When the Dow lost 89.2% between 1929 and 1932, gold
America now spends more on debt interest than on defending
Gold is 13% below its January all-time high — and
Five forces converged this week — a Fed independence fight,
North American investors pulled a record $13 billion from gold
Gold has pulled back 13–14% from its January all-time high
Deutsche Bank calls the Iran war a “perfect storm for
Gold hit an all-time high of $5,589 in January 2026
France sold 129 tonnes of gold held at the US
Silver is outpacing gold for the second straight day as
The 1970s gold and silver bull run remains one of
Silver hit a nominal all-time high of $121.64 in January
Gold and silver prices don’t move by chance. Discover the
Silver surged more than 5% Tuesday and is holding near
Gold has gained roughly 15.6% since January 1, 2026, while
The Fed goes silent April 18. For 12 days, no
The 50-day SMA is one of the most reliable tools
Gold is down 10% from its war-peak — but up
A gold-silver ratio of 75 signals silver is historically undervalued
Gold set an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in
The Hormuz blockade sent gold down 2% as oil surged
Does US debt drive gold prices? The CBO confirmed the
Quantitative easing is the Federal Reserve’s most powerful — and
March CPI surged to 3.3% — the highest since May
The US-Iran ceasefire is barely holding. Gold closed at $4,768
Does your gold jewelry count as a gold investment? The
PCE inflation came in at 2.8% year-over-year in February —
Iran’s parliamentary speaker says the U.S. violated the ceasefire within
Not all gold and silver coins are created equal. The
Most people assume money is printed at a mint and
Gold is pushing toward $4,800 and silver jumped nearly 6%
Iran’s 8PM deadline looms, oil is above $100, and
Gold prices are shaped by powerful forces — real interest
Tonight’s Strait of Hormuz deadline puts gold, oil, and markets
Gold and silver whipsawed on conflicting ceasefire signals as Trump
Gold reached record highs even as Western ETF investors sat
When inflation stays high and economic growth stalls, traditional investments
Gold dropped to $4,600 before recovering. Silver bounced from $71
The first quarter of 2026 ended with an unusually clear
The Fed has created trillions in new currency. So why
Why is gold falling when the world is on fire?
Stagflation 2026 risks intensified Wednesday as oil surged past $111,
The gold-silver ratio is one of the most practical tools
A little-known index tracking four key market variables just hit
Central banks are accelerating gold purchases as confidence in fiat
Gold and silver reversed sharply after Trump’s Iran war address
Gold jumped 2% to start Q2 as Trump hinted at
The dollar’s share of global reserves has hit its lowest
Gold ETF inflows are rising, but are investors getting the
Trump says US forces leave Iran in weeks. Gold hits
Gold and silver prices posted their strongest session in weeks
Central banks are dumping dollars and buying gold at record
A chart making the rounds recently makes a bold claim: gold may need to skyrocket—potentially to $26,000 — to match historical levels of U.S. debt coverage. At first glance, the argument is compelling. Today, U.S. gold reserves cover just about 3% of federal debt—near record lows. In 1980, that number was closer to 18%. Go back further to the 1940s, and it exceeded 50%. So yes… if gold were to “rebalance” against debt the way it has in the past, prices would need to rise dramatically. But that doesn’t mean those price targets are realistic. The Flaw in the $26K Gold Argument It’s easy to look at historical ratios and
Gold dropped 14% in March — its worst month since
Most investors watch prices. Smart investors watch value. Learn what
Most investors ask the wrong question about gold. It’s not
Silver surged from $34 to $121 in under a year,
Gold and silver are bouncing back Monday, but the macro
Gold and silver rebounded ~3% Friday, but the gold price
Every fiat currency ever created has eventually failed — no
Since the Nixon Shock in 1971, the U.S. dollar has
A gold IRA rollover lets you move 401(k) funds into
Five gold economic signals — shipping disruptions, $110 oil, $39
Iran says there will be no negotiations — and is
When governments debase their currency, the economic fallout is only
Silver isn’t just a monetary metal anymore. Industrial demand from
Real interest rates — not headlines — drive gold prices.
Gold and silver are having their worst month in years
Gold surged more than 2% today after nine straight days
The history of the gold standard is a 140-year story
Gold and silver have long been trusted tools for protecting
When the U.S. dollar weakens, gold prices typically rise —
Trump claims Iran talks are ongoing. Tehran denies it. Oil
Gold is posting its worst 5-day price correction since 2013,
Most investors track what gold and silver are doing today. Mike and Alan are tracking something bigger — the capital sitting on the sidelines that could soon find its way into precious metals. In this episode of the Gold Silver Show, recorded a few months ago but more relevant than ever, Mike and Alan reveal an updated chart tracking the total liquid capital in the U.S. economy — currency in circulation, money market funds, and unused credit card lines combined. The number is striking: over $20 trillion, sitting on the sidelines and available to move within a single trading day. With trillions flowing into gold
The U.S. government’s own financial statements show $6.06 trillion in
UBS forecasts gold to rise 20% by end-2026, targeting $5,900–$6,200
Gold just recorded its worst week in 46 years, dropping
The Treasury’s own books show the US government is insolvent.
Gold and silver mining stocks can amplify gains when precious
Ray Dalio recommends up to 15% in gold. Warren Buffett
Gold isn’t rallying despite a war in the Middle East.
Gold dropped 4% today. Silver is down 17% in five
A year ago, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard warned that
A bank safety deposit box feels secure — but for
Gold is falling even as oil surges and inflation risks
Gold dropped 3.5% Thursday even as war escalated in the
De-dollarization is no longer theoretical. As oil trade begins shifting
Gold has surged past $5,000 an ounce — but is
Most investors rely on stocks for growth and bonds for
Gold fell 3.75% to $4,820 as February PPI surged to
Every great empire follows the same arc: sound money, public
Silver crashed 30% from its January 2026 all-time high. Alarming
Choosing between a Gold IRA and physical gold ownership? Understanding
The Fed announces its rate decision today as oil approaches
Rising gas prices, shifting gold-silver ratios, and a Federal Reserve
Most precious metals investors know how to buy — but
Gold runs first. Silver waits — sometimes for years. Then
Gold already hit a record $5,600 in 2026. Now two
Gold is holding near $5,000 as the Fed meets, oil
Gold briefly dipped below $5,000 Monday as a stronger dollar
Why is silver leaving COMEX vaults? Many investors assume shrinking
The US still values its gold at $42.22 an ounce
Central banks have been accumulating gold at the fastest pace
As gold prices climb, producing nations like Ghana are raising
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most
Gold has a centuries-long reputation as a safe haven during
Ray Dalio calls gold “the safest money” and recommends a
Gold has outlasted every currency it has ever been compared
Is the world entering a silver supply deficit? Mike Maloney
The Iran War is reshaping global markets in real time.
Silver often moves more dramatically than gold—but the reason isn’t
The February 2026 CPI report landed in line with expectations
Ray Dalio warns the world may be drifting toward a
Wondering how to buy gold in today’s volatile market? Gold
Gold and silver are holding strong in 2026 — but
From ancient Rome to Nixon’s 1971 gold shock, the history
Oil topped $100 a barrel for the first time since
Most people use the terms money and currency interchangeably—but they
After January’s sharp selloff, gold and silver are climbing again.
Silver isn’t just a cheaper alternative to gold — it’s
Gold and silver prices eased Friday despite a week of
Iran’s conflict with the Strait of Hormuz is rattling oil
Gold prices are rising, yet most investors still hold very
Gold dropped 4% as the dollar claimed the safe-haven trade.
Gold and silver portfolio allocation isn’t about predicting which metal
Gold prices surge on Middle East tensions as U.S. and
Gold and silver prices are full of short-term noise—daily swings
Gold and silver prices are climbing as inflation runs hot
The Silver Canadian Maple Leaf is one of the world’s
Gold just logged its 8th consecutive monthly gain. Tariff chaos
J.P. Morgan has raised its gold price target to $6,300
President Trump shrugs off affordability concerns, but the U.S. housing
As government debt reaches record levels, gold and silver are
Gold and silver prices in 2026 continue to outperform stocks.
For most Americans, something feels off. You work harder. You earn more. Yet your money buys less. Groceries. Insurance. Healthcare. Rent. Utilities. It’s not your imagination. The U.S. dollar has been quietly losing purchasing power for over a century — and the system driving that decline is built on ever-expanding debt. Here’s what’s actually happening under the hood — and why it matters to your wealth. The System Most People Never See In earlier eras, paper currency was redeemable for something tangible. Today, the dollar is backed by government credit — and sustained by debt. When the federal government spends more
A court blocks Trump’s tariff push, gold climbs, and two
COMEX gold prices drive the global market, but most investors
Gold is back above $5,000. Silver cleared $80. With a
When markets turn volatile, the difference between paper gold vs
The U.S. just added $1 trillion to the national debt
Selling gold and silver safely? Understanding where and how to
Gold price support levels 2026 are holding after January’s 17%
Gold dipped below $5,000 as revised jobs data raised fresh
Margin hikes can dramatically increase gold and silver volatility —
Discover how to strategically balance gold and silver in your
Gold steadies near $5,000 as inflation complicates the Fed’s next
CME’s margin requirements silver hike played a central role in
Markets brace for U.S. CPI data as gold reacts to
Are gold and silver taxed differently? Many investors assume so
Gold has climbed back above $5,000 an ounce, extending an
Gold remains steady above $5,000 as the dollar weakens and
Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors February 4th, 2026 | Brandon Sauerwein, Editor Gold Over $5,000, Silver Surges After Deep Sell-Off Gold futures reclaimed the $5,000/oz mark Wednesday, rebounding after last week’s historic plunge. Prices rose about 3% to roughly $5,070/oz, while silver surged 8–10% toward the $90/oz level. The bounce followed one of the sharpest precious-metals sell-offs in decades, with gold down more than 13% and silver nearly 30% earlier this week. Traders point to dip-buying and forced liquidations running their course as key drivers of the rebound. After crowded trades unwound, selling pressure eased. Many now view the drop as a technical reset, not a breakdown in underlying demand. Still, volatility remains elevated. Measures like the
Gold climbed 6.2% and silver surged 10% Tuesday as precious
Gold fell nearly $1,000 from record highs while silver crashed
Silver price forecasts revisited reveal how quickly Wall Street projections
Gold tumbled 7% Friday as Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to
Gold rockets past $5,500 per ounce, hitting fresh records as
What can one ounce of gold actually buy? The answer
Gold surged past $5,300 for the first time as the
Gold blasted past $5,100 per ounce, hitting an all-time high
Gold shattered the $5,000 barrier for the first time on
Gold is approaching $5,000 per ounce. Silver is pushing toward
A Danish pension fund just dumped its entire U.S. Treasury
Gold retreated from record highs after Trump softened his Greenland
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Gold and silver didn’t just perform well in 2025 —
Gold blew past $4,800 per ounce Wednesday, hitting another record
As the DOJ investigates Fed Chair Jerome Powell, markets are
Gold jumped 3.11% to clear $4,700 per ounce while silver
Gold blasted past $4,600 while silver hit record highs above
Silver shattered records Tuesday, breaking above $90 for the first
U.S. inflation held steady in December, but markets face growing
Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors January 12th, 2026 A Rare Challenge to Fed Independence Shakes Markets In an unusually direct escalation, the Justice Department under President Trump has served subpoenas on the Federal Reserve and threatened criminal charges tied to Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony — a move widely viewed as a politicized use of prosecutorial power against an independent central bank. Fed leadership pushed back immediately, warning that the action undermines the Fed’s independence. Markets reacted just as fast. Stocks wavered, the dollar softened, and safe-haven assets like gold moved higher as investors priced in rising institutional risk. The concern goes
The gold-to-silver ratio is experiencing significant shifts that present strategic
U.S. job growth is fading, housing starts have slumped to
If earning six figures still feels like falling behind, you’re
Gold pulled back as commodity index rebalancing and a stronger
Precious metals investors are watching market conditions closely as gold
Bank of America says gold deserves a core portfolio role
Gold holds near record highs as Morgan Stanley targets $4,800
Gold and silver moved higher after Venezuela’s political shock, while
The silver market is facing a margin-driven shock that’s rattling
Gold at $10,000 may sound extreme—but according to Mike Maloney,
Gold just hit its 50th record high of 2025, blasting
Gold topped $4,500 for the first time Wednesday, capping a
Silver is setting up for one of the most consequential
Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors December 23rd, 2025 Silver Breaks $70 as Industrial Demand Roars Back Spot silver surged past $70/oz for the first time ever, capping a weeks-long rally fueled by tight supply and red-hot industrial demand. Solar manufacturing, EV components, and electronics are driving the surge — and some refiners say they’re running at full capacity while miners struggle to keep pace after years of underinvestment. Silver is behaving less like a sleepy precious metal and more like a high-beta industrial barometer. When manufacturing demand collides with safe-haven buying — especially during currency volatility — moves like this happen. If silver holds above
For decades, investors were told the Hunt brothers “cornered” the
Gold is on track for its strongest year since 1979,
Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors December 18th, 2025 Inflation Cools More Than Expected in November Consumer prices rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, coming in below the 3.1% economists had forecast and up only slightly from October’s 2.6%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) also surprised to the downside at 2.6% versus expectations of 3.0%. The softer-than-expected reading came after a government shutdown disrupted October data collection, leaving markets without a clean monthly comparison. Housing costs remain the sticky component, accounting for nearly 40% of November’s increase, though the pace of shelter inflation is showing signs of cooling. Markets reacted positively, with futures rallying on
Could silver outperform gold by 7x? Mike Maloney explains why
Gold posts its best year since 1979 with $5,000 targets
What it means to be rich has nothing to do
Silver is charging toward $64 per ounce while gold climbs
Are gold mining stocks really a leveraged bet on gold—or
Silver has doubled to $64.29 in eight months while gold
The Federal Reserve delivered its third rate cut of 2025,
Silver shattered records this week, topping $60 per ounce while
Silver has shattered its psychological barrier, breaking past $60 per
Gold trades steady at $4,200 as the Fed prepares a
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver another
Institutions are turning increasingly bullish on gold, with many forecasting
Markets are holding their breath ahead of today’s delayed PCE
![Is Now the Best Time to Buy Silver? [Silver 2025–2030 Forecasts]](https://goldsilver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/price-of-silver-300x155.jpg)
Silver pulled back from an all-time high of $58.98 while
Silver just hit all-time highs — but according to Mike
Most investors lose money because they never learned how to
Bank of America’s investment team says the dollar’s dominance is
Copper just joined gold and silver in record territory for
Silver touched a record high of $57.86 per ounce Monday,
Silver’s rally didn’t break — the CME did. As trading
For more than a century, the London Gold Fixing—now the
Is gold truly expensive at $4,000—or is the real price
Gold pushed higher overnight as traders priced in faster Fed
Trump’s $21 trillion investment claim shrinks to $3 trillion under
Most cryptocurrencies claim decentralization, but few truly achieve it. Alan
Gold held near $4,080 Monday as December Fed rate cut
Gold investors face whiplash as conflicting signals roil precious metals
The Fed’s December decision just became a coin flip. September
In The Physics of Money, Alan Hibbard reveals how entropy—the
Gold treads water near $4,100 as traders await key Fed
After weeks of data blackout, the picture isn’t pretty. Jobless
Inflation quietly erodes the value of your dollars, making the
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson says labor risks are rising but
In 2026, more investors are choosing to buy precious metals
Wall Street may be celebrating new highs, but recession pressures
The government shutdown just ended, but the Fed’s data problem
Mike Maloney’s latest $200 silver prediction may no longer sound
Silver 2025–2030 forecasts point to sustained strength in the price
The government shutdown is ending after 41 days, but Americans
Gold and silver rallied Tuesday as economic warning signs mounted
In a world where everything — from your paycheck to your crypto wallet — claims to be “money,” Alan Hibbard asks a question few ever stop to consider: What actually makes something a true store of value? In Episode 3 of Hidden Secrets of Value, Alan breaks down the 12 properties that define real money, exposing why most currencies fail—and why gold continues to stand the test of time. A $100 Gift Card and a Painful Lesson In his twenties, Alan received a $100 Pier 1 gift card — a little stash of value he decided to save for later. But when
Gold remains one of the strongest-performing assets, and the gold
At the New Orleans Investment Conference, Mike Maloney answered a
Gold climbed back above $4,000 this morning while silver rebounded
At the 2025 New Orleans Investment Conference, Mike Maloney and
Gold steadied near $4,000/oz Thursday amid dollar weakness and shutdown
Gold spot price signals reveal much more than the current
Gold bounced back nearly 1% on Wednesday after hitting one-week
At the New Orleans Investment Conference, Mike Maloney and Alan
Gold dipped below $4,000 Tuesday as fading Fed rate cut
When money loses integrity, freedom fades. Mike Maloney and Alan
Markets are struggling to find direction as the government shutdown
Gold and silver wrapped up a historic October, with gold
U.S. households now hold a record 80% of their wealth
Gold’s rally to new highs has investors asking if the
Gold’s heading to $5,000, according to the world’s top bullion
Gold rebounds above $4,000 and silver rallies 2.5% as the
Gold Price Prediction 2026: Gold has shattered records above $4,000
Silver may be on the verge of a powerful reversion.
Gold slipped below $4,000 as US-China trade progress triggered the
Inflation cooled to 3.0% in September, paving the way for
If you’ve ever tried buying physical silver, you’ve probably noticed
Inflation cooled to 3.0% in September, clearing the path for
Most people think they’re saving money — but they’re really
The U.S. national debt just crossed $38 trillion while inflation
China’s dominance over rare earth metals in 2025 is reshaping
Profit-taking clipped gold after a historic run, just as markets
New Morningstar data shows gold outpacing many assets over
Goldman Sachs says “everything is weird” as stocks, bonds, and
Gold consolidates near $4,260 after a historic 60% rally, but
When empires overreach, currencies crumble — and history’s warning lights begin to flash. In his latest episode of The GoldSilver Show, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard unpack why the markets may have already peaked, how global power is shifting toward gold, and why holding real assets has never been more essential. “This Could Be the Top” — The October Warning “I believe there’s a high potential that the top of the markets is in now,” Mike begins. The reason? A dangerous game of economic brinkmanship between Presidents Trump and Xi — a “game of chicken,” as Mike calls it — that
Gold just outperformed the Nasdaq over five years — up
Gold set new records near $4,240 while silver hovers just
Discover how record central bank gold buying is reshaping global
Gold just crossed $4,200 — its strongest run in modern
Few times in history has the silver market looked like this. In the latest episode of The GoldSilver Show, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard unpack an extraordinary squeeze that’s pushing the physical and paper markets in completely different directions — and it’s happening fast. Lease Rates Explode: A Market Under Stress Silver lease rates — the cost of borrowing silver for short trades — have rocketed to over 33%, a level almost never seen. Under normal conditions, those rates hover near zero. A 33% spike signals something deeper: a market starved of liquidity. For short sellers, this is a nightmare.
Precious metals have taken center stage in global markets, with gold recently surpassing $4,100 per ounce and silver climbing above $51, marking their highest levels on record. This surge has captured investor attention worldwide, underscoring the renewed demand for tangible assets amid rising economic uncertainty. Understanding what’s fueling this gold and silver price rally is essential for investors seeking to navigate a volatile world. From Federal Reserve policy shifts to the return of inflation and the rise of central bank demand, here are the five core forces propelling gold and silver higher in 2025 — and why they matter for
Tariffs jolted risk assets—and bitcoin slid—while gold held above $4,100,
Gold surged to a new record above $4,000 while silver
Discover the major silver price drivers behind silver’s surge past
Silver surged past $51 an ounce this week before easing
Silver surged past $50 per ounce overnight, reaching its highest
Gold has shattered records in 2025, surpassing the historic $4,000 per ounce milestone — and as of October 8, spot gold is trading as high as $4,041.71. Futures have climbed even higher, pushing toward $4,063.70. That’s up over 52% year-to-date. Even at these elevated levels, first-time investors are moving in, recognizing gold’s enduring role as a hedge against today’s economic uncertainty. Why First-Time Investors Are Embracing Gold at Peak Prices The rush of new gold buyers reflects a perfect storm of economic pressures that have undermined confidence in traditional assets. Persistent inflation, trade tensions, and growing doubts about central bank
Gold broke the $4,000 mark for the first time ever,
If you’ve been waiting to stack more silver, now might be your last chance for a while. The global silver squeeze isn’t coming. It’s here. In his latest video, Mike Maloney delivers a blunt warning: physical silver is vanishing worldwide, premiums are surging, and the disconnect between paper and physical markets is hitting a breaking point. From mints in Canada to shops in Vietnam, supply is drying up fast. A Global Supply Shock in Real Time Australia, Africa, Canada, Vietnam, the U.K., and the U.S. are all showing the same signs: empty shelves, delayed shipments, and backorders stretching out weeks.
Gold surged toward $4,000 while silver approached $50 as investors
Learn how gold’s unique price behavior helps balance portfolios. Low
Gold has surged from $2,624 at the start of 2025 to over $3,800 per ounce today. But even during powerful bull markets, prices rarely move up in a straight line. Periods of retracement or sideways trading — known as gold price consolidation — are a normal part of the cycle. For long-term investors, these pauses aren’t setbacks. They’re often the moments when disciplined buyers quietly build positions before the next leg higher. The question is: could this consolidation be your next strategic entry point? What is Gold Price Consolidation? Gold price consolidation happens when the market trades within a defined
Gold prices notch a seventh straight week of gains, miners
Gold surged 11% in September, one of its strongest monthly
Silver vs. Miners: A Strange Divergence Silver today looks extremely undervalued — both against inflation and compared to gold. Yet mining stocks, which typically amplify moves in metals, have lagged badly since the mid-2000s. The HUI index (a benchmark for mining companies) has been in a long decline relative to gold, though Lundin believes it may now be breaking that downtrend. If miners start to “catch up” to silver’s rally, the leverage could be enormous. History shows that when this gap closes, the moves can be fast and violent — rewarding those positioned early. Two Core Reasons to Own Gold
For decades, sound money advocates have leaned on a simple, tidy idea: gold is valuable because it’s scarce. But what if that argument misses the point entirely? In his latest video, Alan Hibbard takes aim at the “scarcity” narrative and replaces it with a more precise—and more powerful—mental model: arduousness. It’s not just about how rare something is. It’s about how hard it is to inflate its supply. If you’ve ever used scarcity to defend gold… you might want to rethink that. Scarcity vs. Value: Not the Same Thing Let’s start with a quick thought experiment: if gold is valuable
Gold hit a record $3,866/oz in September, surging 12% for
Silver price surges 61% YTD to $46.71. With the all-time
Gold extends its winning streak as global tensions mount. Trump’s
Written by: The MacroButler Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio is basically a four-course financial meal: stocks for the inflationary sugar rush, bonds for the deflationary nap, gold for the inflationary hangover, and cash for when everything else goes sideways. The genius lies in its balance—no matter what the economy cooks up, at least one dish is always edible. Layer in Schumpeter’s business cycle, and you’ve got a cheat sheet for knowing which plate to pile higher. The trick, of course, is figuring out which course the economy is currently serving—easier said than done. If Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio is the financial
U.S. jobless claims dropped sharply, consumer spending remains resilient despite
You’ve probably heard Mike Maloney mention the dollar milkshake theory recently — and for good reason. This vivid metaphor captures one of the most important dynamics in global finance today. Picture the U.S. dollar as a giant straw, sucking up capital and liquidity from around the world like a milkshake. As the world’s reserve currency, the dollar pulls money into the U.S. financial system during times of stress — often leaving other economies gasping for air. What Is the Dollar Milkshake Theory? Popularized by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, the theory explains a dangerous paradox. When global uncertainty rises, investors
Gold steadied just below record highs on September 24, trading
Alan Hibbard recently tackled some of the toughest questions our community has about Bitcoin, gold, and silver. In this thought-provoking video, he explores whether Bitcoin is truly money, why companies abandoned it as a payment method, and how it compares to the time-tested value of gold and silver. Below are some of the key takeaways from his analysis. Bitcoin: Commodity, Currency, or Store of Value? One viewer argued that Bitcoin can’t be a commodity because it isn’t on the periodic table of elements. Alan quickly counters: plenty of commodities aren’t elements — think lumber, corn, or soybeans. By market definition,
Gold nears $3,800 and silver tops $44 as the dollar
If you’re serious about protecting your wealth, learning how to track gold and silver prices isn’t optional—it’s essential. In today’s volatile markets, having real-time access to accurate price data can mean the difference between catching an opportunity and missing it entirely. Whether you’ve been stacking metals for decades or you’re just starting to diversify beyond paper assets, monitoring precious metals prices helps you stay ahead of inflation, currency debasement, and the next Fed policy surprise. Why Real-Time Data Matters More Than Ever Here’s the reality: Gold and silver markets move 24/7. They react to every Fed announcement, every geopolitical tension,
For thousands of years, civilizations have turned to gold as the ultimate store of wealth. But is it because of some mysterious “intrinsic value”? Alan Hibbard argues that the real reason gold has endured isn’t mystical at all — it’s practical. In his latest video, he explains why gold has remained money while countless other forms of currency have faded away. Rethinking “Intrinsic Value” Many people — from Aristotle to modern economists — have claimed that gold’s role as money comes from its “intrinsic value.” After all, it’s a tangible metal with uses in jewelry, art, and technology. But as
Gold steadies near $3,700 while silver surges past $43 —
Gold has surged to record territory, briefly touching $3,700 before pulling back. This milestone, driven by economic fragility, Fed policy shifts, and rising investor anxiety, has many asking: is a correction looming before the next leg up? With interest rates falling for the first time in years, geopolitical flashpoints multiplying, and global central banks aggressively stockpiling gold, the case for long-term bullishness is strong. But in markets, even the strongest trends pause—and investors need to prepare. Current Gold Market Landscape Gold’s recent performance reflects more than just inflation fear — it’s a structural shift in how capital views risk. The
Inflation is the silent thief in your wallet. While most people see prices gradually rise, few understand the root cause. In his latest video, Mike Maloney reveals a deeper truth: what we call “inflation” is really just currency devaluation. Mike opens with a real-world example. In the 1960s, a burger, fries, and a drink from McDonald’s cost just 35 cents. Today, the same meal costs over $10. That’s a 2,757% increase. But it’s not because burgers got fancier. It’s because your dollars buy less. This isn’t accidental. It’s baked into the system. Mike explains that under a debt-based fiat currency
Gold extends its winning streak to five weeks as Fed
Markets are digesting the Fed’s signal of two rate cuts
UBS, the Swiss banking giant, recently made waves in the precious metals markets by raising its gold price forecast to $3,800 per ounce by late 2025. If this prediction materializes, that would be a significant 45% increase in 2025. Pretty incredible performance, but how does that stack up against other major years for precious metals? Understanding UBS’s Bullish Gold Prediction The investment bank’s dramatic upward revision from its previous target reflects a confluence of factors that could drive gold to historic highs. UBS analysts point to several key catalysts, including anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, persistent geopolitical tensions, and a
The Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 may arrive today.
In his latest video, Mike Maloney delivers a powerful and urgent message for investors: silver is not just undervalued — it’s poised for a potential breakout that could rival or even exceed its historic surge in 1980. Based on the math, history, and current global conditions, a $200 per ounce silver price is not only attainable, it may happen much faster than most expect. If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, wondering if you missed the window on precious metals, Mike offers a clear and compelling alternative: Buy silver. The “CP Lie” and the True Price of Silver
The Fed kicks off its pivotal meeting today with rate
Goldman Sachs recently made headlines predicting that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce if Donald Trump undermines the Federal Reserve’s independence. But as Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard explain on the latest GoldSilver Show, that estimate may be far too low. In fact, history, central bank behavior, and global buying patterns all suggest much higher levels are possible. Wall Street Finally Wakes Up For years, major banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan dismissed gold as an investment. When gold traded at $400 or $700 an ounce, they urged investors to look elsewhere. Now, with gold having surged over 40% in
Silver surges past $42 to a 14-year high as the
The latest Gold Silver Show with Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard tackles one of the most staggering realities of our time: America’s runaway national debt. At more than $37 trillion — and climbing by the second — the numbers are almost too big to comprehend. But as Mike and Alan show, the consequences are impossible to ignore. A Debt That Reaches the Moon Put simply, today’s debt is astronomical. A stack of $37 trillion in dollar bills would reach the moon ten times over. Per citizen, the burden now tops $108,000 — closer to $300,000 if you count only taxpayers.
If you’ve been watching silver this year, you already know we’re witnessing something extraordinary. At $42 per ounce, silver has just reached heights not seen in over a decade, and with a stunning 45% gain year-to-date, it’s outpacing nearly every major asset class in 2025. This silver price forecast suggests the rally is far from over. But here’s what makes this rally different from the ones we’ve seen before — and why Mike Maloney believes we’re still in the early stages of a much bigger move. Silver Smashes Resistance: What It Means When silver crossed $42 this week, it wasn’t
Gold nears $3,700 as Fed pivots to jobs over inflation.
Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors September 11th, 2025 Gold Steadies Ahead of Today’s Inflation Report Gold prices dipped slightly this morning as investors await the Consumer Price Index data due out today. The metal had risen earlier after yesterday’s surprise drop in producer prices strengthened the case for Fed rate cuts. Markets now see a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s September meeting as virtually certain, with two more cuts likely by year-end. Gold has surged nearly 40% in 2025, making it one of the year’s best-performing commodities. Rising rate cut expectations
Economic conditions today echo the very patterns that have historically ignited major rallies in precious metals: sticky inflation, currency devaluation risks, and rising geopolitical tension. Gold has already surged approximately 38% this year, reaching $3,643 as of September 2024. Against this impressive backdrop, Goldman Sachs recently projected that the gold price $5,000 could be within reach as early as 2026 if current conditions persist. For investors, it’s a wake-up call to reassess portfolio positioning before the move happens. Key Takeaways Federal Reserve Policy and Dollar Weakness The trajectory toward $5,000 gold will largely hinge on Federal Reserve policy and
Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors September 10th, 2025 Inflation Watch: All Eyes on This Week’s Reports Key inflation data dropping this week could show prices picked up speed in August, with economists expecting 0.3% increases across the board. But here’s the twist: Even if inflation ticks higher, the Fed is likely to shrug it off and cut rates anyway. Why? The job market is weakening fast, and that’s become the Fed’s bigger worry. The central bank appears ready to look past any inflation bump and focus on preventing a deeper economic
Silver just surged to $41.96 — its highest level since 2010 — and according to Mike Maloney, this breakout is only the beginning. In his latest conversation with Alan Hibbard, Mike explores why precious metals are entering a new phase that could reshape everything from corporate strategy to the global monetary system. Here are the key insights from their discussion. The Coming Corporate Silver Rush Silver isn’t just another commodity — it’s the backbone of modern technology. From electric vehicles to solar panels, our green future runs on silver. And Mike warns that smart companies are about to face a
Daily News Nuggets | September 9th, 2025 — Here’s what you need to know about today’s most important economic and precious metals news: Dollar Drops to 7-Week Low, Gold Strikes $3,659 The dollar just hit a seven-week low after disappointing jobs revisions sparked fears about economic weakness and reinforced expectations for aggressive Fed action. Gold responded predictably, jumping to $3,659.10 per ounce —another record that underscores its role as the anti-dollar trade. The jobs data revealed deeper cracks in the labor market than previously thought, with revisions showing fewer positions created over recent months. It’s a classic playbook: when
The spot price of gold changes minute by minute, reflecting a constant tug-of-war between markets, policies, and global risks. For investors, the key is recognizing the major gold price drivers that sit beneath those price swings. Understanding these dynamics doesn’t just explain where gold has been — it helps reveal where it could go next, and how it can strengthen a diversified investment strategy. The gold spot price moves minute by minute during trading hours, shaped by economic data, central bank decisions, and global events. Below, we’ll break down the five most important gold price drivers that consistently move markets.
Daily News Nuggets | September 8th, 2025 — Here’s what you need to know about today’s most important economic and precious metals news: Gold Smashes Through $3,600 as Critical Fed Week Begins Gold soared to an all-time high Monday, smashing through $3,600 as investors bet on lower interest rates ahead. Spot gold peaked at $3,636 per ounce, extending this year’s remarkable 38% rally. What’s driving the surge? A perfect storm of factors: anticipation of Fed rate cuts, aggressive central bank buying, and persistent economic uncertainty. The milestone extends beyond U.S. markets — in Canada, gold topped CAD$5,000 per ounce, a striking achievement considering
While retail investors have been selling gold and silver for 16 years straight, the world’s largest institutions are quietly positioning for what Mike Maloney calls “a global monetary system reset.” His latest video reveals why this disconnect could represent one of history’s greatest wealth transfer opportunities. The Retail vs. Institutional Divide Mike opens with striking data: retail gold and silver sales have declined steadily since 2008, even as prices hit historic highs. Global allocation to gold has dropped to just 0.5%—far below the historical 2% average. Meanwhile, institutions are moving aggressively: “The whole reason I started GoldSilver.com is to try
Daily News Nuggets | September 3rd, 2025 — Here’s what you need to know about today’s most important economic and precious metals news: Gold Hits New All-Time High at $3,559 Gold surged to an all-time high of $3,559 per ounce, extending its record-setting run as rate-cut expectations, dollar weakness, and safe-haven demand fuel investor appetite. The metal is up more than 5% over the last seven trading days, making this one of its strongest weekly moves of the year. Analysts point to heightened volatility in global markets, concerns over central bank independence, and a rush into hard assets as key drivers behind bullion’s
Gold and silver have never moved in straight lines. Their history is written in gold cycles — long stretches of dormancy, interrupted by explosive bull markets where both metals have delivered life-changing gains. For investors looking to add gold or silver to their portfolio, understanding these gold cycles is essential. It shows how gold and silver respond to inflation, crises, and monetary shifts — and why they remain indispensable wealth protectors today. The 1970s: Inflation Ignites Gold’s First Modern Super-Cycle When the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971, gold was set free to trade. The timing could not have
Daily News Nuggets | August 29th, 2025 — Here’s what you need to know about today’s most important economic and precious metals news: Inflation Data Opens Door for September Rate Cut The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge came in exactly as expected this morning. July’s core PCE rose 0.3% for the month and 2.9% year-over-year, while overall PCE climbed 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually. This goldilocks data — not too hot, not too cold — gives the Fed cover to cut rates at their September 16-17 meeting. Fed Governor Christopher Waller went public yesterday, backing a quarter-point cut and warning about deteriorating job conditions.
Why don’t we pay for coffee with gold? It’s a fair question — after all, gold has been considered money for thousands of years. But if it’s so valuable, why don’t we use it for everyday transactions? In a recent video, Alan Hibbard unpacks this common misconception, offering a powerful explanation of why gold still matters — not as a medium of exchange, but as a store of value. Below, we’ve broken down the key concepts from his talk, laying the groundwork for what will be a six-part educational series, Hidden Secrets of Value. What It Means to “Use” Money
Gold Steady as Investors Eye Friday’s Inflation Data Gold prices are treading water ahead of Friday’s key economic release: the PCE index, the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge. Spot gold hovers near $3,400 an ounce, with December futures at $3,447. Here’s what to watch: Markets are practically certain of a September rate cut, with CME’s FedWatch showing 88% odds. But Fed officials aren’t rushing to judgment. New York Fed President John Williams wants to see the data first, and July’s PCE is expected to hold steady at 2.6% year-over-year. The core reading — stripping out volatile food and energy — should
Gold Retreats After Trump-Fed Showdown Gold prices pulled back Tuesday, settling around $3,340/oz after Monday’s spike that saw the metal briefly touch $3,370. The initial rally came as President Trump moved to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, sending traders scrambling for safe havens. Cook, one of the Fed’s three sitting governors, has been a vocal advocate for maintaining the central bank’s independence. But the dust is settling, and investors are now questioning whether this political theater will actually change monetary policy or if it’s just another round of Washington saber-rattling. When politicians pressure the Fed, markets get nervous —
At the Jackson Hole conference, Fed Chair Powell outlined major challenges reshaping the U.S. economy. He highlighted that higher tariffs are already lifting prices in some goods categories, with core goods up 1.1% year-over-year after declining through 2024. Immigration restrictions have caused labor force growth to plummet, with payroll growth averaging just 35,000 monthly over three months. GDP growth slowed to 1.2% annualized in the first half of 2025, half of 2024’s pace. Powell warned these aren’t temporary fluctuations but structural changes that monetary policy can’t easily fix. The Fed unveiled its revised five-year framework, returning to flexible inflation targeting
President Trump attempted to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on Monday night, citing allegations of mortgage fraud. Cook immediately refused to resign, stating Trump lacks legal authority for the dismissal. The unprecedented move represents a major escalation in Trump’s efforts to control the Fed and push for lower interest rates. Legal experts predict an extensive court battle that could reach the Supreme Court, as no president has ever tried to fire a Fed governor before. The confrontation threatens the Fed’s political independence, which is crucial for fighting inflation.
In a time of mounting debt, rising interest payments, and inflationary pressures, some in financial and policy circles are floating a bold solution: revalue the U.S. government’s gold reserves. In a recent episode of the GoldSilver Show, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard break down what gold revaluation really means — and why it might not be the silver bullet some hope for. Here’s a deeper look into the most eye-opening parts of the discussion. What Does “Revaluing Gold” Mean — And Why Now? The U.S. Treasury holds over 261 million troy ounces of gold, but it values them at just
Gold Hits $3,379 as Fed Drama Unfolds Gold climbed to approximately $3,379 per ounce Monday after President Trump announced plans to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The news rattled markets, weakened the dollar, and sent investors rushing to safe-haven assets. With legal battles over Fed independence likely to drag on, expect continued volatility — and potentially more upside for gold — heading into September’s Fed meeting. Keep an eye on Friday’s PCE inflation data for the next major market catalyst. Fed Independence Battle Heats Up In an unprecedented move, President Trump announced he’s terminating Fed Governor Lisa Cook,
The Fed’s Jackson Hole conference exposed deep divisions as Chair Powell signaled potential September rate cuts while facing a “challenging situation” of stubborn inflation and weakening labor markets. Political tensions ran high, with President Trump threatening to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook and security notably increased amid confrontations. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledged “cross-currents” in a “difficult environment”, highlighting the challenge of timing policy changes correctly. Two governors dissented at July’s meeting, suggesting more discord ahead. Powell introduced a simplified policy framework focusing on the Fed’s core mandates, receiving a standing ovation from global attendees who recognize Fed independence’s
In an era of soaring grocery prices, several iconic brands are defying inflation by maintaining decades-old prices on signature items. Costco’s famous hot dog and soda combo remains at $1.50 – unchanged since 1985, while AriZona iced tea has held its 99-cent price tag since the company’s founding in 1992. Olive Garden’s Never Ending Pasta Bowl returns at $13.99, the same price for the fourth consecutive year, despite restaurant menu prices jumping over 30% since 2020. These inflation-proof items represent strategic brand decisions where companies sacrifice profit margins to build customer loyalty and reinforce their value proposition. Food prices increased
Gold Retreats from Two-Week High as Dollar Gains Gold pulled back after Friday’s pop, as a stronger dollar made bullion pricier for overseas buyers. Spot gold dipped 0.2% to $3,364/oz while December futures eased to $3,410. The retreat came after gold touched its highest level since August 11 on Friday, following Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Traders still see an 85–90% chance of a 25bp Fed cut on September 17, supportive for gold in the long run. In the near term, however, gold is tracking the dollar. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted Powell’s comments point to only a modest
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a potential September rate cut at Jackson Hole, stating the economic outlook “may warrant” adjusting policy stance. While acknowledging inflation risks remain “tilted to the upside” due to visible tariff pressures, Powell emphasized concerns about the labor market’s unusual balance and rising employment risks. Markets reacted enthusiastically, with stocks soaring and CME data showing September rate cut odds jumping above 90%. The Fed currently holds rates at 4.25%-4.50%, but recent weak jobs data—averaging just 35,000 monthly gains over three months—has intensified debate among Fed officials about the need for policy easing.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces a high-stakes decision at Friday’s Jackson Hole speech amid intense pressure from President Trump for rate cuts and mixed economic signals. While Trump demands rates be slashed to 1% and investors expect a September cut, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and is expected to rise further due to tariffs. Powell may seek middle ground, opening the door to possible cuts without firm commitments. The speech comes as Trump escalates attacks on Fed independence, demanding Governor Lisa Cook resign and threatening Powell’s position ahead of his term ending in May.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his final Jackson Hole speech Friday amid intense debate over potential rate cuts and political pressure from the Trump administration. While markets assign 75% odds to a September rate cut, Fed officials remain divided. Powell is expected to announce major changes to the Fed’s policy framework, including dropping the “average inflation targeting” strategy adopted in 2020. The speech comes as President Trump calls for Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s resignation and continues pressuring for lower interest rates.
Gold prices dipped slightly to around $3,330 per ounce as traders reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Strong U.S. manufacturing data showed factories expanding at their fastest pace in over three years, raising inflation concerns. Markets now see only a 73% chance of a rate cut next month, down from 90% last week. All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday for clues about future monetary policy.
Written by: The MacroButler Beyond the fading grandeur of the G7 and G20—clubs of nations forged in the aftermath of World War II and now mired in economic stagnation and demographic decay—a new alliance has emerged on the geoeconomic map: BRICS+. This coalition—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—represents a rising league of nations determined to expand their trade influence, secure resource flows, and accumulate the economic surpluses that once enriched Europe’s great empires. First conceived in 2001 by ‘Government Sachs’ economist Jim O’Neill as “BRIC,” the term began as a mere market classification for economies whose growth threatened to
Harvard Management Company made significant portfolio shifts in Q2 2025, most notably adding Bitcoin and gold exposure for the first time. The $51 billion endowment invested $117 million in the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and $101.5 million in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, signaling a move toward alternative assets and inflation hedges. The endowment dramatically reduced its technology sector exposure, cutting Meta holdings by 67%, Broadcom by 40%, and completely exiting Uber and cybersecurity firm Rubrik. However, Harvard showed selective confidence in certain tech giants, increasing Microsoft holdings by 48% and Nvidia by 30%. The fund also returned to Amazon
The Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes reveal deep divisions among policymakers about the economy’s direction. Despite two governors voting to cut rates—the first such split in over 30 years—the Fed kept interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%. Officials expressed competing concerns: most worried more about inflation risks, particularly from Trump’s tariffs, while others focused on growing weakness in the job market. The central bank faces a challenging balancing act as economic growth remains sluggish and uncertainty persists about how tariffs will impact prices. Political pressure is intensifying, with President Trump publicly criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell and demanding Governor Lisa Cook’s
Gold is up big in 2025 — yet the skeptics are louder than ever. From cherry-picked data to false comparisons with 1980, the anti-gold narrative is working overtime. But when Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard fact-checked the latest hit piece, they uncovered something revealing: the critics aren’t just wrong — they’re selling something. Here are the key takeaways from their deep dive. The 1980 Peak Deception The article Mike and Alan reviewed commits the oldest trick in financial analysis: starting from gold’s most extreme bubble peak in January 1980. Yes, gold fell 60% from that historic high. But as Mike
Gold royalty and streaming companies are significantly outperforming traditional gold miners in 2025’s high-cost environment. Companies like Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Triple Flag reported record revenues and cash flows in Q2, with Franco-Nevada’s revenue jumping 42% year-over-year to $369.4 million. These firms avoid direct operating costs by financing miners in exchange for discounted future production rights, providing investors with gold price upside while protecting against downside risks. As inflation remains sticky and tariff costs shift to consumers, these companies offer an attractive “happy medium” between owning physical gold and traditional mining stocks.
Four years after pandemic-era inflation began surging, American workers’ wages still haven’t fully caught up to price increases. According to Bankrate’s Wage To Inflation Index, the gap stands at -1.2 percentage points, with prices rising 22.7% since early 2021 while wages grew only 21.5%. Though the gap has narrowed from its peak of -4.8 percentage points in 2022, a slowing job market is hampering progress. If current trends continue, workers’ paychecks won’t fully recover their purchasing power until the third quarter of 2026.
The US economy faces mounting challenges as job growth slows dramatically and inflation remains stubbornly above target. July’s employment report showed just 73,000 jobs added, well below expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. Despite wage gains, inflation concerns persist with tariff-induced price pressures expected to push inflation toward 3.1% by year-end. The Federal Reserve faces a difficult balancing act between fighting inflation and supporting employment, with economists projecting GDP growth to slow to just 1% in the second half of 2025 as consumer spending weakens and businesses pull back on hiring.
The Trump administration has expanded its 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to include 407 additional product categories, effective Monday. The new tariffs now cover everyday items containing steel or aluminum, including auto parts, fire extinguishers, machinery, construction materials, plastics, and specialty chemicals. Experts estimate these tariffs now affect at least $320 billion of imports, up from $190 billion, potentially adding more inflationary pressure to rising prices.
President Trump’s demands for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by three percentage points have raised investor concerns about “fiscal dominance”—a scenario where keeping government borrowing costs low takes priority over fighting inflation. With a recent budget bill adding trillions to US debt and Trump arguing rate cuts could save $1 trillion annually in interest costs, markets fear a return to an era of politically influenced monetary policy. The dollar has already fallen 10% this year while Treasury yields remain elevated, signaling investor worries about inflation risks. Historical precedents from Germany’s 1920s hyperinflation and Argentina’s economic crises serve as
Gold is making headlines again. Prices have surged to all-time highs, yet if history is any guide, this bull market may be far from over. In fact, comparing today’s gold rally to the explosive run of the 1970s suggests we could still be in the early innings of a powerful move. Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard recently broke this down on The GoldSilver Show, where they distilled the 400-page “In Gold We Trust” report by Incrementum into the must-see charts every investor should know. Their conclusion? Gold could still have much further to run — possibly to levels that seem
UBS boosted its gold price target by $100 to $3,600/oz for March 2026, with further upside to $3,700/oz by June. The bank points to sticky U.S. inflation, Fed policy easing, and ongoing dollar weakness as major supports for gold. UBS also highlights strong investment flows, with ETF demand forecast to hit its highest level since 2010 and central bank purchases remaining robust. Altogether, global gold demand is projected to rise 3% in 2025 to the highest level in over a decade.
As economic uncertainty and inflation concerns continue to impact markets, more investors are exploring gold vs silver investment strategies for stability, diversification, and long-term growth. But if you’re just getting started — or even reevaluating your current holdings — you may be wondering: Should I buy gold, silver, or both? Let’s explore the pros and cons of each metal, how they behave in today’s market, and how to build a strategy that fits your investment goals. Gold vs. Silver in 2025: What Makes Each Metal Unique? Gold has long been viewed as a financial safe haven. It’s trusted globally, holds
Money markets are increasingly betting the Bank of England will keep interest rates at 4% for the remainder of 2025, backing away from expectations of further cuts. On Monday, traders reduced their bets on another quarter-point rate reduction this year, with swaps at one point implying less than a 50% chance of such a move—a significant shift from earlier this month when a cut was fully priced in. The change in sentiment reflects signs of faster inflation and a more resilient UK economy, which reduce the case for additional monetary easing. The BOE had most recently cut rates from 4.25%
The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is set to begin Thursday evening, August 21-23, 2025, at a pivotal moment for global monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to unveil the central bank’s new policy framework in his Friday speech, outlining the strategy for achieving inflation and employment goals. Markets are watching closely for hints about the Fed’s September meeting, as officials remain divided on when to resume rate cuts amid persistent inflation concerns and labor market slowdown signs. The symposium’s theme, “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” reflects current economic challenges facing policymakers
A prominent strategist warns that stocks could slide as much as 15% this fall if Fed Chair Jerome Powell fails to deliver a clear dovish signal at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. Markets have priced in at least two quarter-point rate cuts for 2025, with the first expected in September, pushing stock indexes to multiple records. However, concerns are mounting that Powell may disappoint investors by maintaining a hawkish stance, especially given recent data showing wholesale inflation surged while consumer prices remain sticky. The high stakes are amplified by President Trump’s public pressure for rate cuts and his criticism of
Gold held steady around $3,340 per ounce following a 1.8% weekly decline, as concerns mount that President Trump’s tariff agenda is creating inflationary pressures in the US economy. The precious metal’s drop came after data showed US wholesale inflation accelerated in July by the most in three years, prompting traders to reduce bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Higher borrowing costs negatively impact non-interest-bearing gold, while a stronger dollar and rising bond yields following the inflation data added additional pressure. Market participants are now closely watching upcoming consumer price data to gauge whether companies are passing higher
Stock markets initially rallied to record highs on Tuesday after July’s consumer inflation data came in slightly better than expected at 2.7% annually, matching June’s level. However, the celebration was short-lived as Thursday’s Producer Price Index shocked investors with a 0.9% monthly surge – the biggest jump since June 2022 and far above the 0.2% forecast. The dramatic wholesale inflation spike caused stocks to reverse course, with major indexes falling as traders scaled back expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts. The PPI surge suggests tariff-related costs are finally hitting the production pipeline, potentially foreshadowing higher consumer prices ahead and complicating
US wholesale inflation surged unexpectedly in July, with the Producer Price Index jumping 0.9% – the biggest monthly increase in over three years. The sharp rise pushed annual wholesale inflation to 3.3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. The surge was driven by both services (up 1.1%) and goods (up 0.7%), with fresh vegetables soaring 38.9% and widespread increases across sectors including machinery, hotels, and freight transport. This wholesale price spike raises concerns that consumer inflation will accelerate in coming months as businesses pass along higher costs from Trump’s tariffs, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s plans for a September rate
Financial markets face several key events this week that could shake up the current bull run. The most anticipated is Friday’s summit between Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska, aimed at ending the Ukraine war. Any peace agreement could boost European stocks and the euro while easing global inflation pressures. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming poses risks, as any hints about September rate cuts could trigger market volatility. With 60% of global investors worried about stagflation, these events come at a critical time for markets hovering near record highs.
US wholesale inflation surged in July by the most in three years, dampening hopes for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts in September. The Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed inflation accelerating through the economy, even as consumer prices remained relatively stable. This split between wholesale and consumer inflation has created uncertainty about Fed policy, with traders now seeing only a 90% chance of a September rate cut, down from certainty earlier in the week. The data highlights ongoing tensions between President Trump’s push for lower rates and the Fed’s concerns about inflation risks from tariffs.
Gold prices rose slightly on Friday, supported by a weaker US dollar, but are still heading for a 1.7% weekly decline. The drop came after Thursday’s producer price data showed the biggest increase in three years, reducing expectations for a large Federal Reserve rate cut in September. While consumer price data earlier in the week had briefly raised hopes for a bigger rate cut, the hotter producer prices and lower-than-expected jobless claims have traders scaling back those expectations. Gold typically benefits from lower interest rates since it doesn’t yield any income.
Gold prices are set to decline this week after US wholesale inflation data came in higher than expected in July. The stronger inflation report reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, with traders now seeing only a 90% chance of a cut versus full certainty earlier. Gold typically performs better when interest rates fall, so this shift in expectations pushed prices down. Despite the weekly loss, gold remains up over 25% for the year, supported by geopolitical tensions and central bank buying.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance, stating the central bank is “behind the curve” on inflation and needs to raise interest rates. In a Bloomberg TV interview, Bessent said Japan has an inflation problem with core inflation above 2% for over three years, and predicted the BOJ will be hiking rates soon. His comments contrast sharply with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s position that the bank isn’t moving too slowly. The remarks contributed to the yen strengthening against the dollar, with USD/JPY falling to three-week lows.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid defended the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates at their current 4.25%-4.5% range, calling the modestly restrictive stance “exactly where we want to be.” Speaking amid ongoing inflation concerns, Schmid noted that while monetary policy is restrictive, it’s not overly so, citing record-high stock prices and near-record-low bond spreads as evidence. With July’s consumer price index at 2.7%—above the Fed’s 2% target—and the economy showing solid growth, Schmid argues against rate cuts. He acknowledged the complexity of measuring tariff impacts on inflation, stating it’s unlikely there will be clarity in the near term
Social Security beneficiaries could receive a 2.7% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026, slightly higher than this year’s 2.5% increase, according to a new estimate from the Senior Citizens League. The Social Security Administration will announce the official adjustment in October based on inflation data from July through September, with the increase taking effect in January 2026. Despite the projected boost, some economists worry it may not be sufficient if inflation rises due to tariffs, with predictions that inflation could reach 3.7% by mid-2026.
Despite a cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index report, major Wall Street economists agree that higher inflation is coming due to tariffs. Goldman Sachs, UBS, and JPMorgan Chase predict that tariffs will push up consumer prices, with Goldman estimating consumers will bear about two-thirds of tariff costs by fall. President Trump criticized Goldman Sachs for this prediction, even suggesting CEO David Solomon should “focus on being a DJ” instead. JPMorgan’s chief economist estimates tariffs could add 1-1.5% to inflation, with some impact already visible.
Financial markets are unusually calm, with volatility measures for stocks, bonds, and currencies all hitting yearly lows. The VIX “fear gauge” has dropped to its lowest level since December, while Treasury volatility is at early-2022 lows. This calm seems surprising given ongoing risks: geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, and Trump’s Fed criticism. But experts cite three key reasons for the low volatility: – large cash reserves ready to buy any dips – a stronger-than-expected economy avoiding recession – and investors betting Trump will back down from extreme threats (his typical pattern) With the S&P 500 hitting new records and inflation improving,
Investors are enthusiastically buying risky assets across all markets following encouraging US inflation data, with Wall Street hitting record highs and volatility measures collapsing to yearly lows. Despite concerns about Trump’s tariffs, traders are betting that falling interest rates will boost an already resilient economy. Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, with Treasury Secretary Bessent suggesting rates could drop 150-175 basis points. The optimism is driven by strong tech earnings, which accounted for 90% of S&P 500 profit growth, and a general “what tariffs, who cares?” attitude among investors.
Gold prices are consolidating near $3,355-$3,360 (spot) and $3,410 (futures) as investors position for a potential stagflation scenario—a combination of slowing economic growth and persistent inflation. Following disappointing U.S. jobs data that showed only 73,000 jobs added versus 150,000 expected, markets now price an 81% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. Citigroup has raised its 3-month gold target to $3,500, viewing stagflation as the base case rather than a tail risk. The upcoming CPI report on Tuesday will be crucial, with a softer inflation reading likely to push gold through resistance at $3,450.
Despite record-breaking tariff revenue in July 2025, the U.S. budget deficit still climbed 20% compared to last year, according to Treasury Department data. While customs revenue surged 273% (or $21 billion) due to President Trump’s import taxes, federal spending continues to outpace government revenues. The deficit increase is driven by rising interest payments on the $37 trillion national debt and cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security. Although the Congressional Budget Office estimates tariffs could reduce deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years, economists warn this comes with trade-offs including slower economic growth and higher inflation.
Up 28% and 33% YTD, but the biggest moves may
Gold prices rose on Wednesday, climbing 0.6% to $3,363.61 per ounce, as investors increasingly bet on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. The rally was driven by mild inflation data and a weakening dollar, which made gold more affordable for international buyers. Markets are now pricing in a 96% chance of a rate cut next month, with gold benefiting as a traditional safe-haven asset that performs well in low-interest environments.
Gold extended its gains following the release of US inflation data that aligned with market expectations, reinforcing beliefs that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in their upcoming meeting. While underlying inflation rose to its strongest level since the beginning of the year, subdued goods prices helped ease concerns about tariff-related pressures on the economy. The precious metal, which doesn’t pay interest and typically performs well in lower rate environments, has climbed approximately 28% year-to-date. Market participants remain watchful for clarity on whether gold bar imports will face tariffs, after confusion last week when the US Customs and Border
Gold prices bounced around as traders reacted to new US inflation data and uncertainty about future interest rates. Inflation for goods stayed mild in July, but core inflation rose at the fastest pace this year. Many still expect the Fed to cut rates in September, which could be good news for gold. Markets were also watching for clarity on whether US tariffs would hit gold imports. President Trump suggested there won’t be a levy, but the industry wants a formal decision. Gold is up more than 27% so far this year, supported by safe-haven buying amid global tensions.
Trading.com CEO Peter McGuire expects gold and silver to surge in the second half of 2025, with gold possibly reaching $3,600–$4,000 and silver exceeding $40. He cites a weakening US dollar, an anticipated US rate cut, and strong investor demand as key drivers. While gold briefly corrected after US President Trump confirmed no tariffs on precious metals, McGuire believes Q3 and Q4 will be bullish for bullion, with silver showing greater percentage gains. He also predicts crude oil prices will decline in Q4 due to reduced geopolitical tensions, abundant supply, and falling inflation — factors that could lower energy costs
Silver’s rally — up 35% in the past 12 months — is being fueled by a mix of industrial demand and safe-haven investment. Uses in photovoltaics, EVs, and electronics have driven consumption to 1.16 billion ounces in 2024, while annual mine supply remains near 1.02 billion ounces, causing structural deficits for five straight years. Since about 70–80% of silver is a byproduct of other mining, production is relatively inelastic. While inflation has cooled slightly, expected U.S. interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar could further boost silver prices. Analyst forecasts vary widely—from $28 to $50 over the next year —
Asia’s richest families are taking a hands-on approach to gold, running operations more like 19th-century trading houses than passive investors. Multi-family offices and dealers such as Cavendish Investment Corp., J. Rotbart & Co., and Goldstrom are sourcing gold from African mines, refining it in Hong Kong, and selling it to Asian and Chinese buyers for premiums. High geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and a weaker US dollar are fueling demand, with wealthy investors in Hong Kong and mainland China sharply increasing their gold allocations. Beyond trading, some are leasing gold for steady returns, engaging in cross-market arbitrage, or using it as
Gold rebounded slightly after Monday’s selloff, with markets eyeing U.S. CPI data due later today for signals on the Fed’s interest rate path. Analysts say a weaker-than-expected core CPI could boost the odds of a September rate cut — currently seen at 85% — which would favor gold by reducing holding costs and keeping bond yields in check. Trump’s decision to skip gold import tariffs and extend a pause on higher China tariffs provided some market relief. Silver, platinum, and palladium also advanced.
Every second, millions of dollars worth of gold changes hands across global markets. In 2024, daily gold trading volume grew to an astounding $227 billion — a 39% jump from 2023’s $163 billion average. This explosive growth isn’t just a number; it’s a powerful signal of gold’s evolving role in modern portfolios and a roadmap for savvy investors. What Is Gold Trading Volume and Why Should You Care? Gold trading volume represents the total dollar value of gold traded across all markets within a specific timeframe. This encompasses: Unlike many commodities, gold enjoys exceptional market liquidity — rivaling major currencies and
New research from Goldman Sachs reveals a significant shift in who pays for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. According to economists led by Jan Hatzius, American consumers have so far shouldered only 22% of tariff costs through June, with businesses absorbing the majority. However, this dynamic is changing rapidly as companies increasingly pass these costs to consumers through higher prices. Goldman predicts consumers will bear 67% of tariff costs if current patterns continue. The impact on inflation could be substantial, with core PCE inflation potentially reaching 3.2% year-over-year by December, compared to 2.4% without tariffs. This creates a complex
Markets are closely watching this week’s inflation data as the Federal Reserve faces mounting pressure to cut interest rates. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due Tuesday, is expected to show inflation rising to 2.8% annually, up from 2.7% in June, with tariffs driving the acceleration. The nomination of Stephen Miran to the Fed Board adds another voice potentially favoring rate cuts, as economists predict the Fed may need to act by September to avoid multiple dissenting votes. Meanwhile, retail sales data on Friday will provide crucial insight into consumer spending strength amid these economic crosscurrents.
Gold futures retreated Monday after the Trump administration promised to clarify “misinformation” about new tariffs on gold bars that had sent prices soaring to record highs last week. The confusion stemmed from a US Customs ruling suggesting certain gold bars would face import duties, causing futures to spike over $100 above London spot prices on Friday. While gold has gained about 30% this year amid trade tensions, the market remains on edge awaiting long-term clarity on the precious metal’s tariff exemption status. Traders are also watching Tuesday’s inflation data for clues about Federal Reserve rate policy, which could significantly impact
U.S. Treasury yields are set to diverge, with longer-term rates rising while shorter-term rates fall, according to a Reuters survey of nearly 50 bond strategists. The 10-year Treasury yield, currently at 4.27%, is expected to climb to 4.30% and remain there through next year, driven by concerns over persistent inflation from tariffs—now at their highest levels since the Great Depression—and a surge in government debt issuance. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield is projected to drop from current levels to 3.50% within a year as markets price in Federal Reserve rate cuts following weak employment data. This divergence will steepen the yield
Gold experienced a significant decline of 1.4% on Monday, falling to $3,350.94 per ounce after reaching recent highs above $3,400. The drop came as markets unwound their initial reaction to reports of U.S. tariffs on 1 kg gold bullion imports, with the White House promising to clarify its stance through an executive order. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions due to expectations of a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal have reduced safe-haven demand for gold. Investors are now focused on Tuesday’s consumer price index data, which could strengthen the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts if inflation comes in lower than expected, potentially
Treasury yields rose again as Wall Street rethinks how strong the U.S. economy really is—and what the Fed might do next. With interest rate cuts looking less likely in the near term, uncertainty remains high. For gold investors, higher yields often create headwinds—but persistent inflation and market volatility continue to support long-term demand for precious metals as a hedge.
The Trump campaign is reportedly considering new measures to limit India’s purchases of Russian oil, according to Bloomberg. While the aim is to pressure Moscow financially, experts warn that such a move could strain U.S.-India relations and drive up global oil prices. Rising energy costs could further stoke inflation—potentially increasing investor interest in safe-haven assets like gold.
Economist Mark Zandi is warning that the U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of a recession. Last week’s economic data showed job growth sharply slowing and inflation ticking higher—two trends that complicate the Federal Reserve’s ability to step in. Zandi points to flat consumer spending, a decline in construction and manufacturing, and reduced hours worked as further signs of economic trouble. He also blames rising tariffs and strict immigration policies for weakening both household finances and corporate profits.
President Trump announced a sweeping 100% tariff on imported computer chips, aiming to pressure tech companies to shift manufacturing to the U.S. The tariff won’t apply to chips made domestically, which has helped boost confidence in firms like Apple and Nvidia that have already committed major investments in U.S. production. While the policy could support American manufacturing, it also risks raising prices on electronics, vehicles, and household goods—potentially fueling inflation and creating new supply chain challenges.
Gold prices remain near recent highs despite a slight dip, as investors grow concerned about the U.S. economy slipping into stagflation—a troubling mix of stagnant growth and rising inflation. A disappointing jobs report and weakening service-sector data have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates. With real yields falling and economic uncertainty rising, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven and inflation hedge continues to grow. For now, the outlook for gold remains bullish, especially if the Fed shifts to a more dovish stance.
When it comes to retirement planning, one of the most common questions is: When is the best age to start a precious metals IRA? The short answer? The best time to start is right now. Seriously — the sooner you begin, the more time your investment has to grow and weather the ups and downs of the market. Why Precious Metals IRAs Matter Precious metals IRAs offer a unique way to diversify your retirement portfolio. Unlike traditional IRAs that mostly hold stocks and bonds, these accounts let you own real physical precious metals like gold — all within a tax-advantaged
President Trump is expected to name a replacement for Fed Governor Adriana Kugler this week—an appointment that could also signal his choice for the next Fed Chair. The shortlist reportedly includes economic adviser Kevin Hassett, former Governor Kevin Warsh, and possibly current Governor Christopher Waller. Kugler’s early departure follows Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, sparking global concern over the integrity of U.S. economic data. With inflation rising and job growth slowing, Trump’s upcoming picks could reshape how markets view the Fed’s independence—and its ability to manage the economy.
A fascinating chart overlay shows gold following the exact 1970s
Gold prices slid about 0.5 % on Wednesday as yields on 10‑year U.S. Treasuries rebounded after four days of declines, making the non‑yielding metal less attractive. Spot gold dropped to about $3,362.54 per ounce while U.S. gold futures fell to $3,417.30. Investors are waiting to see who President Donald Trump will nominate to fill a vacant seat on the Federal Reserve’s Board, with a decision expected this week Markets also price in an 87 % probability of a rate cut in September after a weak U.S. jobs report and the firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner. Trade tensions remain elevated
An analysis by the World Gold Council reveals that the relationship between gold prices and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is surprisingly weak. Since 1971, only 16% of the variation in gold prices can be explained by changes in CPI inflation. The report suggests that gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge is more complex and influenced by factors beyond just CPI, including monetary policy and investor behavior.
Gold has always been a beacon during economic uncertainty, but what’s happening now is unprecedented. In his latest video with Alan Hibbard, Mike Maloney reveals a chart that suggests gold could reach $9,000 per ounce — and explains why this isn’t just another bull market. According to Mike, we’re witnessing something far more significant than a typical boom-bust cycle. A global monetary reset is fundamentally changing gold’s role in the world economy. The New Reality: Gold as Monetary Foundation This isn’t your grandfather’s gold rally. Speculation or inflation fears drove past cycles, but today’s movement reflects a seismic shift in
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi warns the US economy is “on the precipice of recession” after last week’s alarming economic data. July payrolls grew by just 73,000, with massive downward revisions slashing May and June figures to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively. Consumer spending has stalled, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and core inflation rose to 2.8%. Zandi blames Trump’s tariffs and immigration policies for the downturn, noting that 1.2 million foreign-born workers have left the workforce in six months. With inflation still above target, the Federal Reserve will struggle to provide relief through rate cuts.
Silver Market Outlook 2025: Expert analysis reveals $40 price targets,
Citi has raised its three-month gold price target to $3,500 per ounce from $3,300, citing deteriorating US economic conditions and inflation concerns. The bank expects gold to trade between $3,300-$3,600 as Trump’s new tariffs on dozens of countries, weak labor data showing only 73,000 jobs added in July, and a weakening dollar create favorable conditions for the precious metal. With markets now pricing an 81% chance of a September Fed rate cut and growing concerns about institutional credibility, gold demand has surged by over one-third since mid-2022, nearly doubling prices.
At its July meeting, the Federal Reserve chose to keep interest rates steady, rejecting President Trump’s calls for a rate cut. The decision came in a 9-2 vote, marking the first time in decades with two dissenting members who favored easing rates, believing inflation was under control. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained that inflation remains above the 2% target, and the economy’s strength justifies holding rates for now. Recent data shows inflation rose slightly in June, influenced partly by new trade tariffs, which are beginning to affect prices on goods like appliances and groceries.
Gold is experiencing a strong rally, reaching record prices driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and heavy central bank buying. Although the recent gold price highs invite comparisons to the 1980 peak during a period of extreme inflation and political turmoil, today’s economic conditions are different—current inflation and unemployment are lower, and markets are generally healthier. Central banks now actively buy gold, unlike in the 1980s when they were mostly sellers. This shift, combined with rising geopolitical risks, supports gold’s role as a key safe-haven asset, potentially sustaining its high value.
Both President Trump and Democratic leaders are making conflicting and sometimes misleading claims about inflation and price changes during Trump’s current term. Trump says prices for groceries, energy, and eggs have fallen, while Democrats say costs keep rising. Experts note many factors affect prices—like tariffs, weather, disease outbreaks, and global markets—so it’s too soon to fully judge the impact of policies. For instance, grocery and beef prices rose due to tariffs and supply issues, while egg prices fell mainly because the bird flu eased. Gasoline prices are steady but not as low as Trump claims, and electricity costs have gone
The U.S. dollar index climbed while MSCI’s global equities gauge fell as investors digested signs of rising U.S. inflation and braced for Trump’s Aug 1 trade‑deal. June inflation rose because tariffs pushed up import costs, and weekly jobless claims were lower than expected. The Federal Reserve kept rates steady and said it needed more data before adjusting policy, adding to market caution. Small‑cap stocks lagged sharply, oil prices slid on trade concerns and gold edged up 0.51 % as investors sought a safe haven.
Gold gained 0.6 % to around $3,294.56/oz as traders sought protection before Trump’s Aug 1 deadline for higher tariffs. Spot silver, platinum and palladium hit multi‑week lows, underscoring the broader market’s caution. The president extended the U.S.–Mexico trade deal by 90 days and announced multiple tariff hikes on other countries. June inflation climbed 0.3 % as import duties raised consumer prices, while the Federal Reserve held rates steady and signaled no immediate cuts.
Gold rose about 0.3 % to $3,299.54/oz on Friday after President Trump surprised markets by slapping steep tariffs on exports from Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan. Despite the uptick, bullion was still down 1.4 % for the week and analysts said a strong jobs report could push prices towards $3,200. Investors are awaiting the U.S. July non‑farm payrolls data after June inflation rose 0.3 % as tariffs boosted import costs. The Federal Reserve kept rates in the 4.25 – 4.5 % range on July 31, dampening hopes of a September cut.
The Federal Reserve announced it will keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. Despite pressure from President Trump to lower rates, many Fed officials prefer to wait and see how recent economic policies, like tariffs, affect inflation before making any changes. Notably, the July meeting was historic as two Fed governors broke with the majority, voting in favor of a rate cut — the first time this has happened in 30 years.
If you feel like homeownership is slipping further out of reach, you’re not alone. But what if the real story behind soaring housing costs isn’t what you’ve been told? In this eye-opening video, Alan Hibbard exposes the monetary forces that have been quietly eroding housing affordability for decades — and reveals a surprising solution that most Americans overlook. What Happens When You Price Homes in Real Money Here’s what Alan uncovered: When you measure home prices in gold instead of dollars, monthly mortgage payments have actually decreased over time. Think about that for a moment. While your dollar-denominated housing costs
The U.S. dollar continued its rally on Wednesday, reaching its strongest level in two months with a 0.88% climb in the dollar index. Investors reacted to upbeat July ADP numbers—104,000 jobs added versus 76,000 forecast—and an upward revision to June’s ADP reading. Additionally, second-quarter GDP growth outpaced estimates. In afternoon remarks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the economic backdrop remains robust and that inflation risks from trade tariffs justify keeping rates at a moderately restrictive stance. Those comments curtailed expectations of imminent rate cuts and pressured gold lower.
President Trump has strongly urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, but economists say this won’t happen in the Fed’s upcoming meeting. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5% as it aims to control inflation while the economy remains stable. Despite Trump’s criticism and political pressure, Powell remains cautious, especially with the risk that new tariffs could push prices higher.
As the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its latest interest rate decision, the U.S. economy shows mixed but mostly steady signals. The job market added 147,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Consumer sentiment and retail sales are trending up slightly, while mortgage rates and home sales remain steady. Inflation rose to 2.7% in June, and the economy grew by 3% in the second quarter, beating expectations despite a weak first quarter. Most analysts do not expect the Fed to cut rates this week, as trade tensions and inflation continue to weigh on the outlook.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, but two Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, may dissent and push for cuts amid concerns about a slowing economy. This rare division reflects uncertainty about growth, hiring, and inflation, as well as political pressures and jockeying for the Fed Chair position in 2026. While most officials see steady rates as appropriate, others worry the job market is weakening and want to lower borrowing costs soon.
In its latest Quarterly Gold Report, Invesco analyzes how gold has performed recently alongside other investments. The report highlights the impact of major economic factors like bond yields, the US Dollar, and inflation expectations, providing insights into what drives gold prices and what investors should watch in the coming months.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady at this week’s meeting, but several interesting developments are unfolding behind the scenes. Two Fed governors are pushing for rate cuts, which could lead to rare dissent in the decision. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces pressure from President Trump to lower rates amid debates about tariffs’ impact on inflation. Although no cut is expected now, many see a possible rate reduction in September depending on upcoming economic data.
Former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso says the U.S. dollar will remain the dominant global currency, but “cracks” are appearing in its supremacy. These cracks are encouraging investors to diversify into other currencies. Nakaso also expects the Bank of Japan to resume interest rate hikes once uncertainties from U.S. tariffs ease. He warns that rising inflation risks in Japan require careful monitoring to avoid falling behind the curve.
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, advises investors to hold
Gold prices recovered slightly after an initial boost from a U.S.-EU trade deal faded. Investors are now focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for clues on future interest rate moves. While the trade truce brings some optimism, tariffs remain in place, raising concerns about economic growth and inflation. Gold’s role as a safe haven remains important amid ongoing global uncertainties, especially with U.S.-China trade talks continuing.
As Federal Reserve policymakers meet this week, they are expected to keep short-term interest rates steady, revealing a growing divide between Fed Chair Jerome Powell and President Trump. Trump pushes for deep rate cuts, citing a strong economy and low inflation, while the Fed and most economists argue that higher rates are needed to control inflation and maintain price stability. Inflation has eased but rose slightly to 2.7% in June, leading the Fed to be cautious about cuts. Though some predict a rate cut in September, the Fed’s forecasts suggest only two cuts this year and one in 2026. Trump’s
Despite firm oil prices near $70, the market is grappling with forecasts of a significant supply surplus in late 2025 and 2026 as OPEC+ unwinds output curbs and non-OPEC production ramps up. Both the IEA and US Energy Information Administration have raised their supply estimates, projecting a surplus exceeding 2 million barrels per day. Current tight supply conditions and strong demand, particularly in jet fuel and U.S. consumption, sustain prices for now. However, analysts warn that the seasonal summer strength will fade, and growing inventory builds could pressure prices downward, impacting inflation and high-cost producers.
Despite President Trump’s vocal campaign for rate cuts, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged at this week’s meeting. While two Republican Fed governors may dissent in favor of cuts, the Fed as a whole remains cautious due to ongoing uncertainties from tariffs and their inflationary and economic effects. Recent inflation data shows tariffs beginning to push prices higher, but mixed economic signals and a slowing job market complicate policy decisions. Markets are anticipating a possible rate cut in September, but Chair Powell is likely to avoid providing explicit forward guidance, opting instead to remain
U.S. Treasury yields were steady Monday with the 10-year note up just one basis point to 4.398%, as investors anticipate this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. The Fed is expected to maintain its current rate range of 4.25%-4.50%, while markets seek guidance on the timing of potential rate cuts. Thursday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is forecast to show inflation rising slightly to 2.4% year-over-year. This data will offer insights into tariff impacts on price pressures. In addition to the Fed and inflation data, key labor market reports will arrive throughout the week. Trade tensions
Gold was little‑changed around $3 336 per ounce after slipping to its weakest level since mid‑July, with gains capped by improved risk appetite stemming from a framework deal under which the U.S. and EU agreed to impose a 15 % tariff on most EU goods, averting a bigger trade war. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the pact dampened demand for safe‑haven assets but also eased inflation uncertainty, potentially giving the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates later, which is usually supportive for gold. Investors are now looking to the Fed’s meeting later this week, where rates are expected to remain at 4.25 %–4.50 %”
As of July 2025, the U.S. economy is on solid footing: inflation has eased closer to—but remains above—the Fed’s 2% goal, and strong job gains mean interest rates stay steady. Trump-era tariffs have slightly reduced consumers’ purchasing power, but most sectors are holding up. If key tariff disputes are settled by summer’s end, growth should continue uninterrupted, with only minor headwinds from tighter labor supply and small Medicaid spending cuts. If tariff uncertainty drags into autumn, however, businesses may delay investment and hiring and consumers may pull back—pushing the economy into a mild recession about half as severe as a
On Friday, Russia’s central bank slashed its benchmark rate from 20% to 18%, matching economists’ expectations and marking its biggest cut in over three years. The move follows signs that consumer prices are cooling—CPI even dipped 0.05% week-on-week—and annual inflation has eased from a 10.3% peak in March to 9.17%. Having hiked aggressively since mid-2023 to curb overheating from surging military spending, the bank now projects 2025 inflation at 6–7% and maintains its 2024–25 GDP growth outlook of 1–2%. While businesses and Deputy PM Marat Khusnullin have pushed for steeper cuts—some calling for a 400 bps move—Governor Elvira Nabiullina and
If you’ve ever watched gold prices in real time, you’ve likely noticed something fascinating — the numbers just don’t sit still. Every 15 seconds or so, the gold spot price refreshes like clockwork, creating a steady rhythm of movement that can feel both hypnotic and confusing. But what’s really behind these constant shifts? If you want to stay ahead in the precious metals market, you need to grasp why the gold spot price shifts so frequently — it’s knowledge that sets successful investors apart. Let’s break down what drives this rapid-fire price action, and more importantly, what it means for
Traders now see almost no chance (under 30%) of an ECB rate cut at its September 11 meeting, up from about 50% before news of a looming 15% EU–U.S. tariff deal. After eight cuts over the past year, the ECB held rates steady this week, and President Christine Lagarde’s upbeat tone—emphasizing that policy is in a “good place” and warning that trade-related bottlenecks could stoke inflation—pushed two-year German yields up over 10 basis points to 1.90%.
Central banks around the world are easing off on rate cuts as many near the end of their monetary-stimulus cycles. Persistently high inflation and rising trade-war tariffs have made policymakers cautious, while political pressures—especially President Trump’s repeated public remarks about possibly firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell—add another layer of uncertainty.
In our latest video, Alan Hibbard walks you through over a century of market history — complete with live Excel dashboards — to show how gold can simultaneously boost returns and tame volatility. Here’s a closer look at the five most eye-opening takeaways. 1. Why Gold Truly Belongs in Every Portfolio Gold isn’t just a hedge against inflation or financial panic—it’s a powerful engine for growth. Drawing on fresh research from Goldman Sachs, Alan shows how even a modest slice of gold can improve your risk-adjusted returns. Over rolling 10-year periods, portfolios with 10–25% gold consistently posted higher Sharpe ratios
June’s consumer‐price report showed a clear “tariff inflation” effect: overall prices rose 0.3% from May and 2.7% from a year ago. Key contributors included a 1% jump in gasoline, 0.3% in groceries, and continued increases for big‐ticket imports—furniture, appliances, toys, and clothing. AllianceBernstein’s Eric Winograd noted durable‐goods prices rose year-over-year for the first time in three years, reflecting duties on Chinese and other foreign goods. Core inflation hit 2.9% annually, driven by these import costs, even as housing inflation eased. The White House downplayed the impact—pointing to cheaper car prices despite auto and steel levies—and Trump again demanded rate cuts
In a recent client note, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist Jan Hatzius argues that President Trump’s escalating tariffs are set to weigh heavily on the U.S. economy. After a 0.5% annualized GDP contraction in Q1—despite a modest 0.5% rise in consumer spending—Goldman sees growth slowing to just 1.1% through 2025. They blame tariff-related price increases for sapping real incomes, pointing out that consumer spending has effectively stalled over the past six months, a pattern typically seen only in recessions. Under their base-case scenario, reciprocal tariffs will push the average effective rate up by 14 percentage points this year and another 3
Bank of America strategists now believe the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates in 2025. Citing slower-than-expected job growth and a gradually rising unemployment rate—forecast to reach 4.4% by year-end—the team argues there’s little “compelling case” for rate reductions. With tariffs possibly lifting consumer prices and core inflation poised to hit 3% this summer, the Fed is likely to keep its policy rate at 4.25–4.50% until at least next year.
$100 silver prices are closer than you think. Mike shares
Over the first half of the year, the U.S. dollar has weakened by nearly 10%, surprising many who expected tariffs to bolster it. While a softer dollar can make American exports more competitive and “soften” the impact of tariffs, it also risks higher import costs and inflationary pressure—potentially complicating President Trump’s goals for low consumer prices and steady interest rates. Trump publicly insists on a strong dollar, creating mixed signals within his administration as they weigh the trade-offs of a sliding currency.
Silver is making headlines once again, breaking through barriers that have held it down for years. Recently, silver hit a remarkable 14-year high, closing at an impressive $39.33 per ounce. Many investors are now asking the critical question: What’s driving this surge, and can it continue? There’s a few major factors: Physical Demand Skyrocketing: On the COMEX, deliveries of physical silver are surging to nearly 2 million ounces per day — matching global daily production. This unprecedented demand underscores a looming supply squeeze as industries, investors, and short-sellers compete fiercely for limited resources. Critically Low Inventories: London Bullion Market Association
U.S. ground beef prices continue to soar due to a shrinking supply of cattle, reaching historic highs above $6 a pound in June. Factors like drought, high grain prices, inflation, and interest rates have pushed farmers to reduce herd sizes, causing long-term supply shortages. Experts say fixing the supply gap will take years because rebuilding cattle herds is a slow process. These rising costs are impacting consumers and businesses alike and are likely to keep beef prices elevated through the next few years.
Economic reports last week painted a varied picture: the U.S. posted solid retail sales and earnings despite higher inflation, Europe’s industrial output improved, and China’s growth picked up. Japan and India saw inflation cool down, but inflationary pressures rose in the UK. Global stocks mostly showed little change, with bond yields easing, the dollar strengthening, and oil prices declining. Gold continues to consolidate but appears near a technical breakout that could push prices higher. The impact of tariffs is emerging in inflation data, with investors adjusting their outlook accordingly.
Gold surged 26% in the first half of 2025, setting 26 all-time highs and becoming one of the year’s top-performing assets, according to the World Gold Council. While momentum may slow in H2, ongoing geopolitical risks, inflation, or economic downturns could push prices even higher. Gold remains a resilient hedge as global uncertainty continues.
Gold prices rose on renewed optimism around U.S. interest-rate cuts and growing uncertainty over global trade policies. Comments from Fed officials show a split on how tariffs may influence inflation, but some—including Governor Waller—support lowering rates, which typically favors gold since it doesn’t offer yield. The metal has already surged 27% this year as investors seek safe-haven assets amid economic and geopolitical tension. Meanwhile, traders are closely watching upcoming tariff decisions, Trump’s pressure on Fed Chair Powell, and how global partners may respond. Silver, platinum, and palladium also climbed alongside gold.
Silver extended its rally Monday, nearing $38.50 per ounce, as the U.S. dollar and bond yields declined. The move reflects growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as soon as July. Fed Governor Christopher Waller pointed to a softening labor market and minimal inflation pressures, signaling room for monetary easing. He also dismissed concerns that tariffs would fuel long-term inflation. Meanwhile, in China, the government’s new industrial action plan—aimed at modernizing sectors like machinery, autos, and electrical equipment—is expected to further lift demand for metals like silver. The initiative spans 10 major industries, supporting broader momentum
Gold eased lower on Tuesday, slipping 0.5% to $3,328/oz, as traders held back ahead of potential new U.S. tariff decisions. While inflation data showed consumer prices rose in line with expectations, the dollar gained strength, applying additional pressure on gold. Experts suggest that while fundamentals remain bullish—especially with potential Fed rate cuts on the horizon—gold needs a new catalyst to break past $3,400. Investors are now eyeing the Producer Price Index report for further direction. Meanwhile, silver retreated slightly after reaching a multi-year high, with analysts calling any dip a likely buying opportunity.
According to the latest Atlas Pulse Gold Report, inflation may be the “new elephant in the room” for markets—and it’s setting the stage for a renewed gold rush. Although gold is still consolidating after its April peak, silver, platinum group metals, and gold miners are showing strong signs of life. Importantly, gold isn’t just rising against a weakening U.S. dollar—it’s climbing in nearly every major currency, underscoring a global shift. With the dollar still considered expensive despite a 10% decline this year, a deeper drop could send precious metals sharply higher.
Inflation ticked up in June to its highest level in four months, reaching 2.7% year-over-year. While the rise was expected, signs are growing that tariffs are playing a bigger role in pushing prices higher for everyday goods. Items like appliances, toys, video equipment, and home linens — many of which depend on imports — saw notable price spikes. Large retailers had been holding the line on prices thanks to excess inventory stockpiled before tariffs took effect. But those inventories are now shrinking, and consumers are beginning to feel the impact. While inflation is still considered manageable, economists say the cumulative
New government data shows that prices for import-heavy goods like clothing, furniture, and coffee surged last month, pointing to the early effects of President Trump’s tariffs. Tariff-related price spikes were most noticeable in categories with slim profit margins, where companies are passing along the added costs to consumers. Still, analysts say the broader rise in inflation — which reached 2.7% in June — is driven more by housing and food, not tariffs. The average U.S. household is now paying an extra $2,800 annually due to the tariff burden, the Yale Budget Lab estimates. More levies, including a proposed 50% tariff
John Williams, President of the New York Fed, believes current interest rates are appropriately “modestly restrictive,” giving the central bank space to monitor economic developments. But he warns that the full economic impact of tariffs hasn’t hit yet — and it’s coming. Williams expects tariffs to increase inflation by 1 percentage point through early next year, pushing inflation to as high as 3.5% in the near term before cooling to 2.5% in 2026, with a return to the 2% target only by 2027. He also sees GDP slowing to just 1% and unemployment ticking up to 4.5% by year-end. While
Written by: The MacroButler Investors who have done more investing homework than just bingeing Wall Street pundits or tuning into finance soap operas hosted by clueless journalists, will know they basically have two flavours to choose from: contracts and properties. Harry Browne, an economist with a knack for common sense, cooked up the Permanent Portfolio—a no-nonsense, all-weather mix of four uncorrelated assets: stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, each at 25%. Simple, balanced, and built to survive just about any economic circus. On one side we have contracts made of Cash and Bonds which can be seen as IOUs with fancy
Silver just hit $38 — its highest price in 14
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Tuesday that interest rates likely need to stay elevated for a while longer to keep inflation in check—especially as Trump’s tariffs put upward pressure on prices. While inflation hasn’t surged yet due to inventory buffers, Logan emphasized the importance of monitoring data over the summer. She noted that although softening labor and inflation data could warrant cuts later, for now, policy should remain “modestly restrictive” to avoid reigniting inflation.
Gold gained modestly Wednesday as a softer U.S. dollar and renewed trade uncertainty gave the metal a lift. The market is watching closely for U.S. producer price inflation data, which could shape the Fed’s interest rate path. So far, gold has repeatedly hit resistance near $3,400 despite rising inflation and new Trump tariffs, including a fresh 19% duty on Indonesian imports. Analysts believe the current pause may be temporary, with ANZ forecasting gold could climb to $3,600 per ounce by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, silver rose 0.6% to $37.93, continuing to outperform amid strong industrial demand and tight supply.
U.S. inflation rose sharply in June, marking the highest increase since February, with consumer prices up 2.7% year-over-year. Economists are now seeing early signs that President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are starting to push prices higher—especially for groceries, clothing, furniture, and appliances. While energy and housing costs also contributed to the rise, core inflation (excluding food and gas) increased to 2.9%. These numbers make it less likely the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. Meanwhile, political debate is heating up as the public feels the pinch and businesses like Walmart and Nike begin passing costs to consumers.
U.S. inflation is expected to rise in June, largely due to the impact of new tariffs on goods like furniture, cars, and toys. Economists warn that businesses are now passing on higher costs to consumers, ending months of muted price increases. The Federal Reserve is under pressure: hold rates steady and risk criticism from the White House, or cut rates if inflation stays low. With Trump pushing aggressive new tariffs and supply chains under strain, analysts believe we’re entering a summer of rising prices—though some say Trump could still reverse course.
The June CPI report showed headline inflation rising to 2.7% year-over-year, while core CPI hit 2.9%, with notable increases in consumer goods likely tied to new U.S. tariffs. Categories like apparel, footwear, and furniture posted gains after months of declines—an early sign that import levies are filtering into prices. With Trump threatening broad tariffs on over 20 countries, and retaliatory measures from the EU on the table, markets are watching closely. The Fed is expected to hold off on rate cuts at its upcoming meeting, as analysts warn that inflationary effects from tariffs may only just be beginning to appear.
President Trump’s call for a 1% Fed policy rate is raising alarms among economists and investors. While aimed at reducing borrowing costs for a rising federal deficit, such a drastic move—despite strong employment and above-target inflation—could be viewed as politically motivated. Analysts say it risks undermining the Fed’s credibility, triggering inflation, and rattling bond markets. Historically, 1% rates have only appeared during crisis conditions—not when the economy is growing 2% annually. With Trump’s new fiscal stimulus bill increasing debt supply, keeping market trust in the Fed’s independence will be critical to avoid higher long-term borrowing costs.
Gold prices rose on Tuesday as escalating global trade tensions increased demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold climbed 0.4% to $3,354.84 an ounce, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed geopolitical risks—including Trump’s latest round of tariffs and reports of growing U.S.-Russia tensions. Investors are also watching for the latest U.S. inflation data (CPI), which could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Meanwhile, silver held above $38, with analysts saying it could top $40 if current price ratios to gold are maintained.
Silver could be on the verge of a breakout. In the latest episode of The Gold & Silver Show, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard explore a rare technical pattern flashing across multiple timeframes. The setup? A multi-year “cup and handle” formation already breaking out on 6-month, quarterly, and annual charts. Mike believes this pattern could push silver beyond $150—possibly to $300, $400, or even $500+ per ounce. That might sound far-fetched, but historical parallels suggest it’s not only possible — it’s happened before. A Look Back: The 1970s Bull Market Mike compares the current silver market to the bull run of
Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast for Q4 2025 to $3,800 per ounce, citing a weakening U.S. dollar, potential inflation pressures, and ongoing global uncertainty. The bank says it favors gold, silver, and copper futures as top picks in the metals sector. The report also notes that stimulus from China and investor demand—particularly via ETFs and central banks—could help drive gold even higher. However, the bank cautions that new U.S. tariffs and global trade tensions may increase industrial costs and add volatility to the outlook. Jewelry demand may improve as consumers adjust to higher prices.
Markets are bracing for a busy week as investors prepare for fresh inflation data, major bank earnings, and results from Netflix and other corporate heavyweights. Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be the most closely watched data, especially with the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision just two weeks away. All major U.S. banks will report earnings, alongside top names like Netflix, PepsiCo, and American Express. Analysts expect modest growth, with Q2 profit forecasts at just 5%—the slowest pace since late 2023. While Trump’s tariff announcements rattled markets earlier in the quarter, recent news has had little impact, suggesting investors
U.S. Treasury yields climbed Friday after former President Donald Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, escalating trade tensions. Yields on the 10-year, 30-year, and 2-year notes all rose as investors reacted to the news. Trump said Canada’s failure to cooperate on stopping fentanyl imports played a role in the decision, and he warned that blanket tariffs of 15–20% on other nations may follow. The sharp moves come on the heels of earlier 50% tariffs on Brazil and copper imports. Markets are now bracing for new inflation data and the Fed’s monthly budget statement, expected later today.
Silver broke through $37 per ounce, marking its highest level since 2011 as geopolitical tensions and tariff shocks renewed safe-haven buying. The move came after Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports and hinted at broad new trade levies on major global partners. Heavy 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil earlier in the week added fuel to the fire. While bullish momentum remains strong, a firmer U.S. dollar and cautious Fed commentary may temper near-term upside. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stressed that interest rate decisions will remain focused on inflation and jobs—not political pressure.
Brazil’s inflation climbed to 5.35% in June, marking the sixth straight month above the central bank’s 3% target and signaling continued pressure on the country’s monetary policy. While the Selic rate was raised to a 15% high in June — the highest in nearly two decades — the central bank may now pause further hikes as it assesses the impact. A tight labor market and elevated public spending are complicating efforts to control prices, especially with eight out of nine consumer categories seeing gains in June. Electricity and housing costs were the biggest drivers, while food prices declined slightly. Investors
Metal markets are booming—led by copper joining gold, silver, and platinum in a broad rally. Since the start of the year, gold and silver are each up about 26%, platinum has soared 49%, and copper has jumped nearly 12% following a new 50% import tariff announced by President Trump. But what’s driving this surge, and what does it mean? Three key thoughts emerge: – Metals are rallying even without high inflation, suggesting markets are anticipating something not reflected in official CPI figures. – The new copper tariffs aim to boost domestic production, but could ironically raise costs for U.S. manufacturing
Gold prices climbed Thursday, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of future interest rate cuts. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,327.42 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.5%. The dollar’s pullback made gold more attractive to international buyers, and analysts suggest that Trump’s recent trade moves—like a 50% tariff on copper and new tariff notices to seven countries—are contributing to “dollar-negative” sentiment. Markets reacted calmly to the new tariffs, with global stocks rising, indicating investor fatigue over trade headlines. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes showed most officials are cautious about cutting rates soon due to inflation concerns, though
President Trump is getting louder about replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell—and the list of candidates is growing fast. Names like Kevin Hassett, Scott Bessent, and Kevin Warsh are being floated, with each offering sharp critiques of the current Fed’s direction. Trump has been especially vocal about wanting lower interest rates and blames Powell for not moving fast enough. One scenario being considered: appointing Hassett to the Fed board first, then making him Chair when Powell’s term ends next May. Trump has even joked about liking Bessent more than Powell and hasn’t ruled out giving him both the Treasury and Fed
Gold, silver, and platinum are taking a breather after a big run-up—but don’t count them out just yet. Gold and silver are both up 26% so far this year, and platinum is leading the pack with a 54% surge. Prices have leveled off recently, especially for gold, but experts say this is likely just a pause before another leg higher. The forces driving metals higher—like central bank buying, inflation risks, and a weaker dollar—are still in play. Plus, with interest rate cuts on the table, gold and silver could get a boost as holding metals becomes more attractive than short-term
Banks split on gold: Citi says $2,500, JPM says $4,000.
The U.S. dollar held near its highest level in over two weeks against the Japanese yen as President Trump ramped up trade tensions, announcing a fresh round of tariffs set to begin August 1. The dollar also edged higher against major currencies following threats of levies on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. Despite recent strength, the dollar index remains down over 6% since Trump introduced “Liberation Day” tariffs in April. Markets are interpreting these aggressive moves as negotiation tactics, but Japan remains far from a deal, causing its yen to weaken sharply. Investors are also watching upcoming Japanese elections and U.S.
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Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates as early as September—three months earlier than its previous forecast. The shift comes as disinflationary pressures have proven stronger than anticipated, and the economic effects of tariffs appear smaller than expected. While the labor market remains healthy, signs of softening—like fewer job openings and slowing wage growth—support the case for easing. Goldman now sees five rate cuts by mid-2026 and a lower long-term terminal rate of 3.0–3.25%, down from 3.5–3.75%.
America’s budget deficit is ballooning—and it’s raising red flags across the financial world. Independent forecasts, including from Yale and the CBO, say President Trump’s budget plan could add trillions to the national debt in the next decade. The deficit is now over 6% of GDP, its highest level outside of wartime or crisis. CNBC’s special report, America’s Deficit Reckoning, explores how this rising debt could impact markets, the economy, and U.S. global power. Experts warn that rising interest payments, inflation risks, and reduced fiscal flexibility could create lasting damage—especially for future generations.
Australia’s central bank is keeping a close eye on inflation risks, even as recent data shows price growth remains within target. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock warned that high labor costs and weak productivity could still push inflation higher. While the board is aligned on direction, members were divided on timing, with some favoring an immediate rate cut. Bullock emphasized the need for more data before making further moves and highlighted global uncertainty—especially from ongoing trade tensions—as a key concern.
Hungary’s inflation rate rose to 4.6% in June, driven by higher food, energy, and service costs. While this matched economists’ expectations, it marked the highest inflation level since March. Despite government efforts to cap prices on essentials like food, energy, and telecom services, consumer prices continue to rise. Food alone saw a 6.2% increase, with staples like eggs and flour jumping over 20%. The central bank has held interest rates steady for nine consecutive months, signaling ongoing caution amid persistent inflation and weak economic growth.
Australia’s central bank surprised markets by keeping interest rates steady at 3.85% instead of cutting them as expected. Most investors had predicted a rate cut due to slowing inflation and weak consumer spending, but the Reserve Bank of Australia said it needs more data before easing. The decision sent the Australian dollar higher and bond markets lower. While the bank still sees a rate cut in the near future, likely in August, it’s treading cautiously amid global uncertainty and recent trade tensions.
In uncertain markets, gold and silver stand the test of
Amid inflation, market shocks, and dollar risks, smart investors are
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Gold and silver have long been more than just coveted metals—they’ve been cornerstones of global commerce and monetary trust. Throughout history, civilizations relied on these metals not only for their beauty but for their unmatched ability to promote economic stability. For those exploring how gold silver economic stability continues to shape modern financial strategies, history offers profound lessons with enduring relevance. Understanding the historical role of gold and silver coinage helps today’s investors and policymakers make sense of a global economy full of volatility. The enduring connection between precious metals and economic stability shows why these assets remain essential tools
Remember Ross Perot? The businessman who showed up with charts, warning America about our dangerous debt trajectory? Now Elon Musk is channeling that same energy — but with 10x the influence and a very real threat that could reshape American politics. In the latest episode of The GoldSilver Show, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard break down Musk’s explosive tweets about forming “The America Party” and what the just-passed “Big Beautiful Bill” means for your financial future. The $4 Trillion Question On July 1st, the Senate passed what might be the most fiscally irresponsible bill in American history. The numbers are
New Senate bill adds $3.3T in debt — just as
The euro zone achieved its inflation target in June, with consumer prices rising 2% year-over-year according to Eurostat’s flash data. This marks a slight increase from May’s 1.9% reading and aligns perfectly with the European Central Bank’s goal. Core inflation remained steady at 2.3%, but services inflation edged up to 3.3%, signaling potential underlying price pressures. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated that the major inflation-fighting cycle is complete, though the bank will remain vigilant. Markets responded positively, with the euro gaining against the dollar. Despite external risks like oil price volatility and potential U.S. tariffs, economists expect the ECB
A major warning from the Bank for International Settlements suggests Trump’s trade policies threaten to undo recent progress on inflation control. BIS General Manager Agustin Carstens reports that tariffs are creating economic uncertainty comparable to crisis conditions, potentially forcing central banks into a corner. The Fed faces the worst-case scenario: rising prices from import tariffs combined with slowing economic growth. This “stagflation” risk means traditional monetary tools become less effective – raising rates hurts growth while cutting rates fuels inflation. For precious metals investors, this environment historically favors gold and silver as hedges against currency debasement and economic uncertainty. The
Federal Reserve officials are sending mixed signals about when interest rates might be cut in 2025. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says the timing will depend on how President Trump’s tariffs affect inflation and jobs. While the Fed kept rates steady at 4.25-4.50% in June, some officials suggest cuts could come as early as late July if tariff impacts prove mild. The Fed is balancing its goals of controlling inflation while keeping unemployment low as they monitor economic data over the next three months.
US consumer sentiment jumped to a 4-month high of 60.7 in June, marking the largest monthly increase since early 2024. The improvement was driven by better inflation expectations, with consumers now expecting prices to rise 5% over the next year (down from 6.6% in May). Long-term inflation expectations also fell to 4%. Despite the gains, sentiment remains below year-start levels, and 57% of consumers still expect unemployment to rise. The survey suggests consumers feel their worst economic fears may not materialize, though concerns about tariffs and their potential impact on prices and employment persist.
The world’s top central bankers from the US, Europe, Britain, Japan, and South Korea will meet in Sintra, Portugal next week to discuss global economic issues. While inflation appears controlled in most countries, the bigger concern is whether President Trump’s protectionist policies could threaten the US dollar’s 80-year dominance in global finance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces particular scrutiny as he resists Trump’s pressure to cut interest rates, with fears that any threat to the Fed’s independence could weaken the dollar’s status as the world’s preferred currency.
U.S. Treasury yields edged higher following stronger-than-expected inflation data. The 10-year yield held steady at 4.253%, while the 2-year yield rose 2 basis points to 3.732%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 2.7% in May—higher than the 2.6% economists predicted and up from April’s 2.5%. The inflation surprise comes as President Trump escalates tensions with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, criticizing the Fed’s cautious stance on interest rates amid tariff uncertainty. Trump claims to have a shortlist of replacements and may announce Powell’s successor as early as September, well before Powell’s term expires in 2026.
Gold prices dropped over 1% on Friday to their lowest level in nearly a month, falling to $3,282.68 per ounce. The decline was driven by easing global tensions, including the Iran-Israel ceasefire and progress on U.S.-China trade discussions. Gold has lost more than 2% this week and fallen over $200 from its April record high. Investors are now watching for U.S. inflation data that could influence future interest rate decisions. Other precious metals also declined, with platinum falling nearly 6% after recently hitting its highest level since 2014.
President Trump announced he has narrowed down his list to “three or four” candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in May 2026. Speaking at a NATO summit press conference, Trump called Powell “terrible” and expressed eagerness for his departure. Despite previous speculation about firing Powell early, Trump has stated he has “no intention” of doing so, though he continues to hint at the possibility. The two remain at odds over interest rate policy, with Powell recently suggesting rates will stay steady to combat potential inflation from Trump’s tariffs.
Bullion vs numismatic coins: Learn the key differences in choosing
Gold prices advanced on Thursday, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar as markets grappled with uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy direction. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,339.38 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $3,352.30. The dollar’s decline made gold more attractive to international buyers, while President Trump’s public criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell raised questions about the central bank’s independence. Powell has indicated that Trump’s tariff plans could create persistent inflation, warranting caution on future rate cuts. Market analysts expect gold to remain range-bound between $3,000-$3,500 until there’s more clarity on Fed policy. Traders are closely
Since the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971, gold has delivered impressive 8.4% annual returns, nearly matching the 9.2% from global equities. Even more striking, gold has outperformed stocks since 2000, returning 10.1% annually versus 5.9% for equities. Gold’s true value lies in its diversification power – it moves independently from stocks and tends to perform best when equities struggle. During seven major stock market crashes since 1970, gold posted positive returns in six cases, averaging 17% gains. A balanced portfolio of 50% stocks and 50% gold would have outperformed either asset alone with less risk. As governments print
While the national debt soars $4.7 billion daily, this inflation
The Federal Reserve is holding steady on monetary policy as it assesses the economic impact of tariffs, according to Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. Speaking at an event in Wisconsin, Kashkari acknowledged that recent inflation data has been “quite positive,” with the Fed’s preferred inflation measure dropping to 2.1% in April. However, he emphasized that the central bank needs more time to understand the full effects of tariffs on prices before adjusting interest rates. This cautious stance aligns with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent testimony to Congress, where he indicated no rush to lower rates. Fed officials are currently split
In congressional testimony on Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stood firm against President Trump’s calls for immediate interest rate cuts, stating the Federal Reserve is “well positioned to wait” before making policy changes. Powell explained that the Fed expects tariffs to increase inflation in coming months, starting as early as June, and wants to observe these effects before adjusting rates. Despite Trump’s harsh criticism calling Powell “dumb” and “hardheaded,” the Fed Chair received bipartisan support from committee members who praised his focus on the Fed’s core mission. Powell indicated that rate cuts could come sooner if inflation proves weaker than
Gold prices held steady Wednesday following Tuesday’s decline, which came after improved market sentiment from the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement. Spot gold traded unchanged at $3,325.56 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $3,339.30. The de-escalation in Middle East tensions reduced immediate safe-haven demand, though lingering concerns about Iran’s nuclear program maintain some support for gold holdings. Additionally, global central banks are reportedly shifting reserves away from the U.S. dollar toward gold, euros, and Chinese yuan amid geopolitical uncertainties. Markets are now awaiting key U.S. economic data: Thursday’s Q1 GDP report and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data, which
Central banks have been slowing their gold purchases recently, with buying dropping 33% quarter-on-quarter in early 2024, partly due to reduced purchases from major buyers like China. However, experts don’t expect this trend to signal a permanent decline. The weakening faith in the U.S. dollar as the primary reserve currency is driving continued interest in gold, with sanctions prompting countries to seek alternatives to dollar assets. Gold has already surpassed the euro to become the second-largest global reserve asset in 2024 and is up over 25% for the year. Despite the recent slowdown, analysts believe ongoing economic uncertainty, inflation concerns,
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is maintaining a cautious stance on interest rate cuts ahead of his congressional testimony, despite mounting pressure from President Trump and signs of division within the Fed itself. In his prepared remarks, Powell indicated the Fed will wait to better understand how trade wars affect the economy before adjusting rates, warning that tariffs are likely to push inflation higher and slow economic activity. The Fed has kept rates unchanged for four consecutive meetings, with the last cut occurring in December. This reluctance has frustrated President Trump, who took to Truth Social to urge Republican lawmakers
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman signaled Monday that she’s ready to support lowering interest rates as early as the July 29-30 meeting, provided inflation stays contained. Speaking in Prague, Bowman suggested bringing rates closer to “neutral” levels to maintain a healthy job market. Her position echoes Governor Christopher Waller’s Friday comments supporting potential July action. Both Fed officials believe Trump’s tariffs will have limited inflation impact, noting many businesses already stockpiled inventory in anticipation. While President Trump advocates for aggressive 2-percentage-point cuts to reduce government borrowing costs, Fed officials haven’t specified cut sizes. The central bank held rates steady at
Jerome Powell defended the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to Congress, explaining why they’re holding interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5% despite pressure from President Trump. The Fed Chair emphasized that officials need more clarity on how Trump’s evolving tariff policies will impact inflation and economic growth before adjusting rates. Trump criticized Powell on social media, calling him “dumb” and “hardheaded” for not lowering rates, which keep government borrowing costs high. Powell acknowledged that tariffs are likely to increase prices and potentially slow economic activity, but stressed that the actual effects remain uncertain as the administration continues to shift its trade policies.
Gold’s inability to sustain levels above $3,400/oz on three recent occasions might appear concerning, but UBS investment strategists argue this shouldn’t deter investors from maintaining gold positions. After struggling to break $2,100/oz until February 2024, gold has surged over 60% in 15 months, driven by both traditional factors (interest rates, inflation) and emerging concerns (trade conflicts, policy uncertainty). Central bank surveys reveal these factors remain highly influential in reserve allocation decisions. UBS recommends a 5% gold allocation for balanced portfolios, with a price target of $3,800/oz. For indirect exposure, gold miner bonds offer attractive 6% yields, benefiting from improved operational
Gen Z, shaped by the 2008 financial crisis and pandemic challenges, is actively preparing for a potential recession through practical strategies. They’re embracing budgeting trends like “no-buy” challenges, using financial apps, and shifting away from “YOLO” spending. Many are developing multiple income streams through side hustles and skill-building, while others are moving back home to reduce expenses and save money. Though these habits provide a stronger financial foundation, external factors like rising rent, student loans, and inflation mean even the best preparation can’t guarantee complete protection from economic downturns.
Gold fell to $3,355 per ounce despite escalating Middle East tensions after the US and Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend. After initially rising 0.8%, gold reversed course as the dollar strengthened. Why gold isn’t rallying: While geopolitical conflicts typically boost gold as a safe-haven asset, investors have two main concerns. First, they doubt the conflict will escalate significantly since Iran hasn’t retaliated and lacks support from Russia and China. Second, if tensions spike oil prices and fuel inflation, the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high – bad news for gold, which pays no yield. The
Japan’s inflation continues to accelerate, with May’s core CPI hitting 3.7% year-over-year, surpassing both market expectations and the BOJ’s 2% target for over three years. The inflation surge is broad-based, with goods prices rising 5.3% and services inflation at 1.4%. Food costs are particularly problematic – rice prices have doubled, rice balls cost 20% more, and chocolate bars are up 27% from a year ago. The Bank of Japan faces a challenging balancing act: persistent inflation suggests the need for higher interest rates, but uncertainty around President Trump’s trade policies creates economic risks. Governor Ueda has indicated the BOJ’s commitment
Silver just did something it rarely does — outperform gold while staying completely under the radar. If you’ve been following the precious metals market, you know this is unusual. Gold typically leads, silver follows. Gold gets the headlines, silver gets ignored. But right now, something different is happening. And according to Mike Maloney’s latest analysis, this quiet outperformance could be the early warning signal of something much bigger. “This is exactly how the biggest moves begin,” Mike explains in his latest video with Alan Hibbard. “The best opportunities come when nobody’s paying attention.” Why This Time Feels Different The financial
May’s inflation data showed surprisingly low price increases, with CPI rising just 0.1% monthly and staying under 2.5% annually. Key categories like cars and clothing actually saw price drops despite new tariffs. This “missing inflation” may be due to businesses stockpiling imports before tariffs hit and weak consumer demand. However, this calm is likely temporary. Business costs are rising rapidly, and these will eventually be passed to consumers. Despite market hopes for Fed rate cuts, the central bank will probably keep rates steady through 2025, having learned from past mistakes about “transitory” inflation.
Written by: The MacroButler The markets have dubbed 2025 not a Jubilee, but a fog—thick with the unknown. Investors fumble through it, sensing chaos, yet naming it uncertainty without grasping its nature. So let’ dissect the case of the Jubilee Year of Uncertainty. Frank Knight, the economist-sleuth of the early 20th century, cracked the code in 1921. In Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, he drew a decisive line: risk is measurable; uncertainty is not. Risk has odds. Uncertainty has shadows. “Uncertainty,” Knight wrote, “must be taken in a sense radically distinct from risk.” The former can’t be tamed by statistics. It defies
Brandon Sauerwein, Editor Yesterday, silver did something it hasn’t done in 14 years: closed above $37.12. This isn’t just another price milestone. It’s the breach of a resistance level that’s held firm since 2011 — through multiple bull runs, global crises, and monetary upheavals. The momentum is undeniable: Mike Maloney has been tracking this setup for months. In his latest analysis, he reveals why this breakout could be the precursor to a move that catches most investors completely off-guard… Silver Breaks $37 — What Happens Next? Remember when Mike predicted silver’s “slingshot move” back at $33? It just happened. Silver smashed
At Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, officials are anticipated to maintain current interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, but all eyes are on the quarterly “dot plot” chart that reveals each Fed member’s rate predictions. The previous dot plot showed consensus for two rate cuts in 2025, and analysts expect this guidance to remain unchanged despite significant pressure from President Trump, who wants a full percentage point reduction. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and colleagues are weighing multiple factors including Trump’s tariff policies, trade uncertainties, and recent milder inflation data. While Trump has publicly called for cuts and hinted at forcing action, Powell appears
Federal Reserve policymakers are widely anticipated to hold interest rates steady at their Wednesday meeting, continuing their cautious approach amid economic uncertainty. The central bank has kept rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range since earlier this year, as officials seek more clarity on how government policy changes—especially trade tariffs—will affect the economy. Despite initial concerns that President Trump’s tariffs could boost inflation and unemployment, the Fed has been able to maintain its current stance thanks to steady job growth and cooling inflation. With many tariffs now being negotiated rather than immediately implemented, economists have scaled back their most pessimistic forecasts. The
With market volatility and inflation fears on the rise, more investors are turning to precious metals to protect and diversify their portfolios. But that raises an important question: how much should you actually allocate to gold and silver? The answer depends on your goals, risk tolerance, and financial outlook. In this article, we’ll break down what makes precious metals such a powerful addition to your portfolio, and how to find the right precious metal allocation for your investing style. Why Precious Metals Still Matter Gold and silver endure because they’re tangible assets with intrinsic value—no corporate earnings reports or central-bank
JPMorgan’s strategy team, led by Fabio Bassi, expects a challenging second half of 2025 as markets navigate between conflicting forces. On one hand, the U.S. economy faces headwinds from trade policies and a shift away from earlier “exceptionalism” themes toward recession concerns. On the other, underlying economic fundamentals remain solid with limited credit imbalances and controlled inflation impacts from tariffs. The strategists highlight a puzzling disconnect: volatility measures like the VIX have collapsed while economic policy uncertainty remains elevated, suggesting markets are resilient rather than complacent. They maintain a mixed outlook – bullish on risk assets short-term (supported by AI
Gold has overtaken the euro to become the world’s second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar, according to a new ECB report. This shift reflects gold’s 60% price surge over the past two years and massive central bank buying, with over 1,000 tonnes purchased in 2024 alone—double the previous decade’s average. The transformation goes beyond traditional inflation hedging. Gold now serves as a geopolitical insurance policy, particularly for emerging economies seeking protection from sanctions and financial weaponization. China, Turkey, and India have led this buying spree, adding over 600 tonnes since 2021. At current valuations, gold represents 20% of global
Gold prices have surged 30% in 2025, reaching $3,500/oz in April amid trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. J.P. Morgan analysts predict gold will average $3,675/oz by late 2025 and approach $4,000/oz by mid-2026. The precious metal broke through $2,900/oz for the first time in February 2025, driven by U.S. tariff concerns and global instability. Gold’s appeal stems from its role as both a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge. Analysts view gold as an optimal hedge against multiple risks including stagflation, recession, currency debasement, and policy uncertainty facing markets through 2026.
The European Central Bank’s Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed confidence about the eurozone’s economic outlook despite challenges from U.S. tariffs and a strengthening euro. He downplayed concerns about inflation falling too low, noting that tight labor markets and steady wage growth around 3% will help maintain inflation near the ECB’s 2% target. While the euro has gained 11% against the dollar in three months, de Guindos sees this as manageable and not a major obstacle. He also dismissed speculation that the euro could soon challenge the dollar’s dominance as the world’s reserve currency, citing the eurozone’s lack of necessary
U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly on Monday as markets reacted to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.43%, while the 2-year yield reached 3.969%. The conflict, which included Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and an attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, pushed oil prices higher, with WTI crude up 0.7% to $73.50 per barrel. Rising oil prices have renewed inflation concerns ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged.
Goldman Sachs has reduced its 12-month U.S. recession probability forecast to 30%, down from 35%, citing decreased uncertainty around President Trump’s tariff policies. The adjustment follows a new trade framework between the U.S. and China that helped calm investor concerns after April’s “Liberation Day” tariffs had disrupted global markets. Key aspects of the deal include the removal of Chinese export restrictions on rare earth minerals and restored access for Chinese students to American universities. While inflation data shows limited impact from tariffs so far, prices are expected to rise in coming months. The improved outlook has led Goldman Sachs to
Following Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear program, the U.S. Treasury bond market experienced an unexpected selloff on Friday, pushing yields modestly higher. While investors initially sought the safety of government bonds late Thursday, this “safe-haven” demand quickly reversed. According to BMO Capital Markets strategists, the shift occurred as traders became more concerned about inflation risks, particularly from rising oil prices. The market found itself caught between two opposing forces: the typical flight to safety during geopolitical tensions versus worries about renewed inflation.
President Trump’s tariffs have had surprisingly little impact on inflation, with prices rising just 0.1% in May. While some imported goods saw increases—canned fruits and vegetables (1.9%), major appliances (4.3%), and coffee (1.2%)—overall inflation remains minimal. Three factors explain this: – Companies stockpiled imports before tariffs took effect – Price increases take time to work through the economy – Weak consumer spending limits businesses’ ability to raise prices Economists are split on what’s next. Some expect tariff impacts to emerge soon, while others believe weak consumer demand could actually lead to deflation—similar to the 1930s Smoot-Hawley tariffs. The Federal Reserve
Consumer confidence in the US economy showed significant improvement in June, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index. The gauge jumped 8.3 points to 60.5, exceeding all economist forecasts and marking the first increase this year. The key driver was a sharp decline in inflation expectations—consumers now anticipate a 5.1% price increase over the next year, compared to 6.6% in May. Long-term inflation expectations (5-10 years) remained relatively stable at 4.1%. The survey revealed broad-based optimism, with the expectations index soaring 10.5 points to 58.4 and current conditions rising to 63.7. Sentiment improved across all political affiliations, with
Gold surged 1.7% to $3,439.79 per ounce on Friday, nearing its April record of $3,500.05, as Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and missile factories sparked fears of wider Middle East conflict. The precious metal posted a 4% weekly gain. Two factors drove the rally: escalating geopolitical tensions and softer U.S. inflation data that boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold typically thrives during uncertainty and when interest rates fall. Major banks remain bullish on gold’s outlook. Goldman Sachs forecasts $3,700 by end-2025, while Bank of America sees $4,000 within 12 months, both citing strong central bank buying. Despite
Gold experienced a significant rally following Israel’s military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, with prices jumping as much as 1.7% before moderating. Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to continue operations until the “threat” is eliminated, while Iran responded with drone attacks and promises of severe retaliation, including potential action against U.S. targets despite America’s non-involvement. The precious metal, trading around $80 below its April record of $3,500.10 per ounce, has gained 30% year-to-date. This impressive performance reflects multiple factors: hedge-seeking against President Trump’s trade policies, ongoing Ukraine tensions, and robust central bank demand. Recent weak U.S. economic data showing muted inflation
Recent economic data strengthens the case for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts beginning in September. Thursday’s reports revealed two key developments: inflation appears to be moderating toward the Fed’s 2% target, and the labor market shows signs of softening. Producer prices increased 2.6% year-over-year in May, and economists estimate that core inflation likely rose just 0.12% month-over-month. On the employment front, while initial jobless claims remained steady at 248,000, continuing claims jumped to 1.951 million—the highest since November 2021. This suggests unemployed workers are having more difficulty finding new jobs. The Fed is expected to maintain current rates at its
Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine’s CEO and CIO, observes that financial markets are behaving “strangely” compared to historical patterns. During the recent April stock pullback, both the dollar and Treasury yields fell—the opposite of what typically occurred during S&P 500 corrections over the past 15 years. This unusual behavior reflects growing awareness that America’s $2 trillion budget deficit and persistent interest rates make the country’s interest expenses unsustainable. Gundlach argues that 30-year Treasury bonds have lost their status as flight-to-quality assets, as they’re no longer responding predictably to interest rate changes or inflation data. He’s avoiding long bonds until yields potentially reach
May’s Consumer Price Index report is expected to show the first real impact of import tariffs on American shoppers. While overall inflation stayed modest at 0.2% monthly growth, core inflation (excluding food and energy) is projected to jump 0.3% – the biggest increase in four months. The timing tells the story: retailers had been selling pre-tariff inventory through April, but May marks when those cheaper goods ran out. Major retailers like Walmart have already announced price hikes, with economists warning this is just the beginning of tariff-driven inflation that could last through year-end. The data comes as the Bureau of
The U.S. economy faces mixed signals about a potential 2025 recession. Warning signs include a 0.2% GDP contraction in Q1 2025, slowing consumer spending, and President Trump’s tariff policies driving inflation. The unemployment rate is projected to rise above natural levels through 2027, while 83% of CEOs expect a recession within 18 months. The yield curve has been inverted since July 2022, traditionally a recession predictor. However, positive indicators persist. Unemployment remains relatively low at 4.2%, retail sales jumped 1.4% in March, and the Federal Reserve maintains steady interest rates. Some economists suggest we’re experiencing a “vibecession” – where negative
Silver just flashed a rare breakout signal — Mike explains
US core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose just 0.1% in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of lower-than-expected increases. This suggests businesses aren’t passing on higher tariff costs to consumers. Key points: – Annual core inflation stands at 2.8% – Goods prices remained flat, with declines in cars and clothing – Service prices rose modestly (0.2%), with drops in airfares and hotels – Markets reacted positively: Treasury bonds rallied, the dollar fell, and stocks rose – Traders now see a 75% chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September The weaker inflation data strengthens the case for
Gold strengthened on Wednesday, gaining 0.4% to reach $3,336.20 per ounce, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid continuing uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations. While officials from both countries announced progress on a framework to revive their trade truce and eliminate China’s rare earth export restrictions, the lack of concrete resolution to longstanding trade disputes kept markets cautious. The ongoing trade tensions, which began with tit-for-tat tariffs in April, continue to support gold prices. Investors are also closely watching the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report for insights into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy, with most economists expecting rates to
Financial markets have significantly reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, with investors now pricing in an 83% chance of no changes through July—up from just 40% a month ago. The shift follows May’s surprisingly robust job growth report, which suggests the economy doesn’t urgently need monetary stimulus. The Fed has maintained “restrictive” interest rates since January, keeping borrowing costs high to combat inflation concerns linked to President Trump’s tariff policies. However, economists remain divided on the Fed’s future path. Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts three rate cuts by year-end, citing concerns about downward revisions to jobs data and
Currency markets showed measured movements Tuesday, with the dollar holding steady near six-week lows as traders awaited outcomes from US-China trade negotiations in London. The talks, following a phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, are addressing challenging issues including semiconductor export restrictions, rare earth minerals access, and student visa policies. The dollar index remained virtually unchanged at 98.989, reflecting its significant 8.7% decline this year as investors seek alternatives amid trade uncertainty. Sterling dropped 0.4% to $1.3499 after UK wage growth came in below expectations at 5.2%, potentially influencing the Bank of England’s rate-cutting timeline. Markets now price
Is silver on the cusp of an explosive move? In a recent presentation, Mike Maloney revisited a long-standing chart pattern — one that has been over 45 years in the making — and delivered a bold forecast: silver’s breakout above $36 signals the beginning of what he calls a “slingshot move,” a rapid, potentially exponential rally that could usher in triple-digit silver prices in the near future. But while technical patterns tell part of the story, it’s the economic backdrop that makes this moment so compelling. Let’s unpack why this time may be different — and why silver could be
Gold and the S&P 500 are both nearing all-time highs simultaneously—a rare market event that reflects conflicting investor sentiments. While stocks typically signal optimism and risk-taking, gold represents safety and uncertainty hedging. This unusual tandem rise suggests investors are betting on both economic growth (driven by AI and potential Fed rate cuts) and protecting against risks like inflation, deficits, and dollar weakness. The gold-to-S&P ratio currently favors gold at 1.76, indicating some preference for safety. Experts compare this delicate balance to “spinning two plates”—possible but requiring specific conditions to sustain.
Gold showed modest gains Tuesday, climbing 0.3% to $3,336.33 per ounce, as markets closely monitored ongoing US-China trade discussions in London and anticipated key inflation data. The talks, now in their second day, aim to ease tensions between the world’s two largest economies following reciprocal tariffs imposed in April. While both nations agreed to a temporary tariff pause last month, investors remain cautious. Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report will be crucial for gauging the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates, with most expecting rates to remain unchanged at the June 17-18 meeting. Analysts note that while gold found support
Stock markets finished strong last week, with the S&P 500 rising 1.6%, the Nasdaq gaining 2.3%, and the Dow up over 1%, putting the S&P 500 within 2% of all-time highs. The rally followed May’s employment report showing 139,000 jobs added and unemployment holding at 4.2%. This week brings critical inflation data for both consumer and wholesale prices, plus consumer sentiment readings. US-China trade negotiations continue in London as markets seek clarity on tariffs. Corporate highlights include earnings from GameStop, Oracle, and Adobe, plus Apple’s developer conference. While the jobs data eased recession fears and suggests the Fed will maintain
Gold prices continue their remarkable ascent, climbing 2% this week to $3,357 per ounce, with State Street Global Advisors forecasting a potential surge to $4,000 within the next six to nine months. The asset management firm’s Gold 2025 Midyear Outlook suggests even more dramatic gains ahead, with prices possibly testing $5,000 per ounce over the next 12-24 months. According to Aakash Doshi, State Street’s head of gold strategy, four key factors are propelling gold’s appreciation: market volatility stemming from Trump’s trade policies, concerns over U.S. debt levels, dollar weakness, and sustained central bank gold purchases. The precious metal has gained
The service side of the U.S. economy shrank in May for the first time in almost 12 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Their index fell to 49.9% from April’s 51.6%, dropping below the critical 50% threshold that separates growth from contraction. The ongoing trade wars have disrupted businesses across the service sector, despite most companies having less direct exposure to imports and exports than manufacturers. Key indicators painted a concerning picture: new orders plummeted to their lowest level in over three years (46.4%), while inflation pressures intensified with prices jumping to a 2.5-year high (68.7%). Production barely
Following a rally driven by better-than-expected US employment data, the dollar retreated on Monday as markets turned attention to high-stakes trade negotiations between the US and China in London. The talks seek to address unresolved issues from last month’s Geneva agreement. Economic pressures are mounting on both sides: China faces deepening deflation with factory-gate prices at two-year lows and slowing export growth, while US businesses and consumers grapple with trade uncertainty. The dollar fell 0.46% against the yen to 144.16, while the euro rose 0.2% to $1.1418 and sterling climbed 0.3% to $1.3558. Investors are now watching for May’s US
US Treasury yields climbed on Friday after new jobs data showed stronger hiring than expected. The 10-year yield rose over 9 basis points to 4.486%, while the 2-year increased 11 basis points to 4.034%. The 30-year yield moved up more than 5 basis points to 4.941%. Higher yields typically suggest investors anticipate tighter monetary policy, potentially due to inflation risks or stronger economic activity. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 139,000 jobs in May, surpassing the consensus forecast of 125,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones, according to data released Friday morning. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%. This stronger-than-expected jobs
Gold is forecast to hit a record average price of $3,210 in 2025 – a 35% surge that would surpass its inflation-adjusted 1980 peak – according to Metals Focus’ annual Gold Focus report. The bullish outlook is driven by economic uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies, U.S. debt concerns, geopolitical tensions, and record central bank buying. Central banks purchased a record 1,086 tonnes of gold in 2024 as they diversify away from the U.S. dollar amid geopolitical risks and mounting concerns about America’s fiscal trajectory. Trump’s reintroduction of tariffs and trade war fears are undermining global economic confidence while raising U.S.
Gold IRA vs Physical Gold Investment is a crucial consideration for anyone seeking stability in today’s economically uncertain world. As precious metals maintain their reputation as safe-haven assets, investors increasingly turn to gold to diversify beyond traditional stocks and bonds. However, how you choose to invest in gold can make all the difference. Whether through a Gold IRA or direct physical gold ownership, each strategy comes with unique benefits and key factors to weigh before making a move. Understanding the Fundamental Differences When comparing Gold IRA vs Physical Gold Investment, the key difference lies in ownership and storage. A Gold
Silver prices are approaching a critical breakout level at $34 per ounce, with analysts predicting a potential surge to $40 if this resistance is broken. Market strategist Michele Schneider sees silver as increasingly attractive compared to gold, noting that the gold-silver ratio is declining from recent highs. This pattern mirrors 2020’s dramatic silver rally. Key drivers include anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, growing industrial demand, and silver’s role as an inflation hedge. While gold remains valuable due to central bank buying and dollar weakness, silver may offer better near-term opportunities for investors watching the $34 threshold.
Gold experienced a pullback in trading today, declining 0.7% to $3,358.76 per ounce, as the US dollar recovered strength ahead of crucial employment data scheduled for Friday. This follows Monday’s significant rally, which marked gold’s biggest single-day gain in four weeks. The precious metal remains a strong performer this year with gains exceeding 25%, driven by investors seeking safe haven assets amid escalating trade disputes between the US, China, and Europe. Goldman Sachs has endorsed gold as an inflation hedge for long-term portfolios, citing concerns about US institutional credibility and comparing it favorably to oil for portfolio protection. Other precious
Gold prices are up 40% this year while industrial metals like copper are down 10%. This unusual gap suggests economic problems ahead, as gold typically rises when investors are worried. Central banks and regular investors are buying gold for safety from inflation and political uncertainty. Some think gold is in a bubble since everyone’s buying it. But with stocks at record highs and potential economic challenges ahead, gold could go even higher if the market crashes. The big question: Is gold warning us about economic trouble, or is it just overpriced because everyone wants it?
In a Monday address in Seoul, South Korea, Fed Governor Christopher Waller maintained an optimistic stance on potential interest rate reductions later this year, even as Trump administration tariffs threaten to increase prices. Waller’s key message: the Fed should “look through” temporary tariff-driven inflation when setting policy rates. The governor acknowledged that tariffs will likely create economic headwinds—reducing spending, production, and employment while pushing prices higher. However, he expects these effects to be one-time increases concentrated in the second half of 2025. With the federal funds rate currently between 4.25% and 4.5%, Waller sees room for “good news” rate cuts
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure showed minimal price increases in April, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rising just 0.1% for the month. This brought annual inflation down to 2.1%, the lowest reading of 2025 and very close to the Fed’s 2% target. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also increased only 0.1% monthly, though it remains slightly higher at 2.5% annually. Despite the positive inflation news, consumer behavior showed signs of caution. Spending growth slowed dramatically to just 0.2% in April (down from 0.7% in March), while Americans boosted their savings rate to 4.9%
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE index, is expected to show minimal growth of just 0.1% in April, potentially bringing the annual inflation rate down to 2.2% – close to pre-pandemic levels. While this appears to be good news as the Fed aims to return inflation to 2% or less, concerns remain about the impact of new tariffs and whether inflation expectations have become “unanchored.” A recent court ruling against Trump’s tariff authority offers some hope, but economists warn that rising import prices could reignite inflation, similar to the persistent inflation cycles of the 1970s.
Tokyo’s core inflation reached 3.6% in May, marking its highest level in over two years and exceeding the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for three consecutive years. The surge was driven primarily by rising food costs, with rice prices jumping an extraordinary 93.2%. While this inflation pressure supports the case for potential interest rate increases, Japan’s factory output declined in April, creating a challenging balancing act for the central bank as it weighs inflation control against economic growth concerns amid potential U.S. tariff impacts.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan indicated Thursday that interest rates will likely remain at current levels for an extended period. The Fed is waiting to assess how President Trump’s policies on trade, taxes, and regulations will impact inflation and employment. Logan emphasized that monetary policy is “in a good place” with a strong labor market and inflation gradually returning to target levels. The central bank remains prepared to respond if economic conditions shift.
Gold experienced a pullback on Friday, falling 0.5% to $3,300.59 per ounce, with the decline driven primarily by a stronger U.S. dollar that rose 0.2%. This week has seen gold lose 1.7% of its value as markets enter a consolidation phase. The focus is now on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – expected to show minimal monthly change at 0.1% and annual inflation at 2.2%. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated the possibility of two interest rate cuts this year, though the Fed remains cautious about ensuring inflation sustainably reaches its
Gold prices dropped below $3,300 per ounce this week, heading for a nearly 2% weekly decline as traders wait for important U.S. economic data. The upcoming release of inflation, consumer spending, and wage growth numbers will help investors understand how President Trump’s trade policies are affecting the economy. Technical trading factors also contributed to the decline, with gold failing twice to break above the $3,328 resistance level. Despite the recent drop, gold maintains its appeal as a safe investment amid ongoing trade uncertainties with China and new tariff concerns.
Federal Reserve officials are caught between two major concerns: persistent inflation driven by trade policies and the growing risk of recession. At their May 6-7 meeting, Fed officials decided to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% for the third consecutive meeting, choosing a cautious “wait-and-see” approach. While officials worry that inflation could become entrenched in consumer expectations, Fed staff warned that recession is nearly as likely as continued growth. The unemployment rate is expected to rise significantly by year-end and remain elevated through 2027. Markets anticipate two rate cuts this year, with the first potentially coming in September.
Florida has become the first major US state to allow gold and silver as legal tender for everyday transactions. Governor Ron DeSantis signed HB 999 into law, enabling money service businesses like PayPal to accept precious metals as payment. The law requires coins to meet specific purity standards and exempts them from sales tax. DeSantis positioned this move as a way to protect Floridians from inflation and federal monetary policy, giving residents an alternative to the US dollar. The legislation represents Florida’s push for greater financial freedom and reduced dependence on centralized currency control.
US unemployment claims rose to 240,000 last week—14,000 more than the previous week and above the expected 226,000. However, the job market remains strong overall, with minimal layoffs and abundant job opportunities. The increase coincides with uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff plans. While a federal court blocked his emergency tariff powers (easing market concerns), the administration is appealing to the Supreme Court, keeping the outcome uncertain. The economic picture is mixed: The Fed is holding interest rates at 4.3% as both inflation and unemployment risks rise. The economy shrank 0.2% in Q1 2025, partly from companies stockpiling imports before potential
There are many compelling reasons to invest in gold, especially in today’s unpredictable markets and economic landscape. As a time-tested asset, gold offers stability, helps preserve purchasing power, and acts as a powerful hedge against inflation and risk. Its ability to diversify your portfolio and withstand volatility makes gold an essential part of any resilient investment strategy. Here are ten compelling reasons to invest in gold and why it deserves a place in your portfolio in 2025. 1️⃣ Gold Protects Your Wealth from Inflation Gold’s scarcity and intrinsic value make it a reliable hedge against inflation. Unlike fiat currencies, which
In a recent GoldSilver episode, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard
Gold prices bounced back Thursday after hitting a one-week low, rising to over $3,3000 per ounce. The recovery followed a court ruling that blocked President Trump’s broad tariffs, though the White House plans to appeal. Traders are now watching for Friday’s key U.S. inflation data (PCE figures) to gauge Federal Reserve policy direction. The dollar’s weakness and ongoing economic uncertainty continue to support gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Although the U.S. economy has avoided a technical recession so far, signs of potential trouble persist. GDP has slowed, consumer spending is under scrutiny, and employment growth is uneven. Inflation and interest rates are closely monitored, as persistent high inflation may curb consumer spending and force the Fed to act. The yield curve remains a crucial signal, with inversions hinting at possible recessions. Stock market performance is also a barometer of confidence. While these indicators can’t predict the exact timing or severity of a downturn, they offer valuable clues about the economy’s direction.
Brandon Sauerwein, Editor New Customers Unlock Up to $1,500 in Free Bonus Silver Time’s running out for new GoldSilver customers to claim up to $1,500 in free silver when you make your first purchase. Here’s how it works: ✅ Open your account by Friday, May 30th ✅ Invest $1,000+ in gold or silver ✅ Get up to $1,500 in free silver deposited directly into your account This offer for new customers is almost over. With U.S. creditworthiness in question, rising inflation, and geopolitical tensions, gold and silver remain trusted safe havens. Plus, now you can earn bonus silver just for taking action.
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams emphasized that central banks must act decisively when inflation moves off target. Speaking with BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, he underscored the importance of anchoring inflation expectations to avoid long-term inflation persistence. Williams pointed out that while short-term shocks might not have lasting inflation effects, the uncertain impacts of supply disruptions and trade policies—especially U.S. tariffs—require careful monitoring. He advised that central banks should prioritize avoiding costly mistakes rather than trying to perfect their responses.
China’s labor market is feeling the heat from renewed trade tensions with the US, as the country battles a housing slump, high youth unemployment, and slower economic growth. With a potential loss of up to nine million manufacturing jobs if tariffs are maintained, the stakes are higher than during Trump’s first term. If US tariffs persist or intensify, analysts warn that up to nine million factory jobs could be lost, far more than in the last trade war. Meanwhile, China’s counter-tariffs are already affecting domestic employment, while the US faces risks of inflation and product shortages.
Gold prices continued to fall for the second day, dropping over 1%, as the US dollar rebounded and President Trump’s softened trade stance with the EU reduced demand for gold. The dollar’s 0.3% gain made gold more costly for non-US buyers. Traders are now focusing on upcoming US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s next moves, with rate cuts expected later this year. Despite the decline, analysts believe gold’s long-term support remains intact amid market uncertainties.
Gold fell as much as 1.4% amid a stronger US dollar and easing demand for safe-haven assets. The dollar gained strength on news that Japan might adjust debt levels, which also pushed global bond yields higher. Investors are watching for signals of progress in US-EU trade talks and upcoming US inflation data. Despite the recent decline, gold has seen a significant year-to-date gain of over 25%, with short-term price forecasts suggesting a rebound towards $3,500 per ounce.
Silver price prediction 5 years ago would have shown modest expectations, but the reality has exceeded most forecasts. If you had invested in silver five years ago, you’d likely be pleasantly surprised by your returns today. This impressive performance demonstrates silver’s potential as both an industrial commodity and a store of value for patient investors. Understanding how your silver investment would have performed through silver price prediction analysis provides valuable insights for future investment decisions and helps illustrate why silver continues to attract both conservative and aggressive investors seeking portfolio diversification. On May 22, 2020, silver traded at $17.21 per
U.S. bond investors are now demanding the highest yields in over a decade to purchase long-term Treasury debt, reflecting growing concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation. This surge in yield expectations indicates a significant shift in investor sentiment, as they seek greater compensation for the perceived risks associated with extended government borrowing. The heightened demand for higher yields underscores the challenges facing the U.S. government in managing its long-term debt obligations.
In today’s volatile economy, protecting your retirement savings is more urgent than ever. Rolling over your 401(k) into a Gold IRA provides a proven way to diversify your portfolio with a real, physical asset: gold. This guide walks you through the six key steps—and shows how GoldSilver makes most of the process easy. Why Consider a Gold IRA? Traditional 401(k) accounts are typically heavily invested in paper assets — stocks, bonds, and mutual funds — that are vulnerable during economic downturns. Physical gold, on the other hand, has a centuries-long track record of holding value and even gaining during financial
Gold prices have edged higher, buoyed by persistent concerns over the United States’ expanding budget deficits. Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset amid fears that escalating U.S. debt levels could undermine the dollar’s value and destabilize financial markets. This trend underscores gold’s enduring appeal as a hedge against fiscal uncertainty and inflationary pressures.
A significant shift in consumer behavior has emerged, with 25% of Americans now utilizing “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) services to purchase groceries—a notable increase from 14% in 2024. This trend underscores the mounting financial pressures faced by households amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty. While BNPL options offer short-term relief, they may lead to long-term financial challenges, as evidenced by a rise in missed payments and accumulating debt among users.
After a wild ride on Wall Street this year, Morgan Stanley is bracing for a midyear recession. Despite a strong rally in stocks following a brief tariff pause, economic data tells a more troubling story: inflation is sticky, job growth is slowing, and consumer confidence is falling fast. Morgan Stanley now expects no more Fed rate cuts until 2026, a sharp reversal from earlier hopes. With tariffs fueling inflation and weighing on growth, the Fed finds itself in a bind—cut rates and risk inflation or hold and risk a recession.
Retailers are feeling the pinch as inflation, tariffs, and recession fears weigh on both businesses and shoppers. Target and Walmart are raising prices or seeing sales drop, while Home Depot and Lowe’s are working around tariffs through sourcing strategies. Meanwhile, discount chain TJX is thriving as cost-conscious consumers hunt for deals. With sentiment down nearly 30% since January, this fractured retail landscape signals rising macro stress—potentially bullish for safe-haven assets like gold.
The European Central Bank just published an article asking: “What does the record price of gold tell us about risk perceptions in financial markets?” Since 2023, gold has hit multiple record prices, reaffirming its role as a safe haven asset. Unlike bonds or stocks, gold offers no income but provides two key advantages: zero default risk and inflation protection through its limited supply. The ECB found that gold consistently shields portfolios during three specific stress scenarios: geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and extreme market volatility. Central banks, especially from emerging economies, have substantially increased gold purchases over the last three years
Moody’s just downgraded U.S. debt. Here’s why investors are turning
Hedge fund manager David Einhorn argues that gold’s rise has more to do with trust erosion in government policy than inflation. He cites persistent deficits, deglobalization, and lack of political discipline as reasons investors are seeking the safety of gold. According to Einhorn, gold has become a hedge against fiscal mismanagement—not just currency debasement.
U.S. single-family housing starts and building permits fell in April, signaling weakness in the residential construction sector. At the same time, consumer sentiment dropped to a six-month low as Americans braced for a resurgence in inflation. The data underscores growing unease about the economy’s trajectory and the Fed’s ability to maintain price stability. These concerns could drive further investor interest in gold as a hedge against inflation and economic volatility.
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill has expressed concerns that the central bank began cutting interest rates too early and too quickly. He criticized the Monetary Policy Committee’s strategy, suggesting that interest rates peaked too low in 2023 and that the Bank moved prematurely to reduce rates starting in August 2024. Pill advocates for a more cautious approach amid elevated wage growth and stubborn inflation.
New York Fed President John Williams said there has been no significant move away from U.S. assets, despite heightened market scrutiny following the recent credit downgrade and fiscal concerns. He acknowledged that investors are reevaluating risk and allocation strategies but stressed that capital flows remain broadly stable. Williams reiterated that current monetary policy is well-suited to prevailing economic conditions, citing solid job growth and resilient consumer spending. Williams also noted the Fed is prepared to adjust as needed should inflation or financial conditions shift unexpectedly.
Most leading cryptocurrencies posted losses Monday, with XRP falling 3.5% and Dogecoin dropping 4.6%, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment in financial markets. Bitcoin and Ethereum also declined slightly, amid renewed concerns over U.S. monetary policy, inflation, and global financial stability. Analysts suggest crypto assets are under pressure as investors shift toward safer instruments like gold and Treasuries. The pullback comes amid heightened market volatility and fading momentum from recent rallies.
U.S. stocks retreated Monday as investors digested the fallout from the U.S. credit downgrade and looked ahead to upcoming Fed commentary. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both edged lower, led by declines in financials and tech, while Treasury yields ticked higher amid fiscal policy concerns. Traders are reassessing rate expectations and risk sentiment in light of lingering inflation pressures and uncertain monetary signals. The market’s cautious tone reflects growing anxiety over U.S. debt sustainability and geopolitical headwinds.
Global gold demand rose 3% year-over-year in Q1 2025, driven by strong over-the-counter (OTC) activity. Central banks added 290 tonnes to their reserves, underscoring continued demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency risk. Investment demand was mixed: ETF outflows contrasted with solid bar and coin buying, especially in China and India. The World Gold Council notes a widening gap between institutional and retail investor behavior.
Gold prices climbed +1% Monday morning as investors flocked to safe-haven assets after the U.S. suffered a surprise credit downgrade. The downgrade, combined with rising inflation and geopolitical unease, has driven renewed interest in gold as a hedge. Analysts note that central bank purchases and Asian demand remain strong tailwinds. Expectations of a prolonged risk-off environment could sustain upward pressure on prices.
U.S. stock futures fell sharply following Moody’s downgrade of the nation’s credit rating, reigniting concerns about rising deficits and long-term fiscal discipline. Investors are increasingly wary of inflationary pressures and interest rate volatility. In this uncertain climate, gold and other safe-haven assets gained traction as protective plays. The downgrade could shift portfolio allocations toward more defensive positions.
Gold prices rose on Monday, driven by a weakening dollar and escalating global trade tensions sparked by former President Trump’s latest tariff threats. As markets grow increasingly cautious, the demand for safe-haven assets like gold has surged. Analysts also cited strong central bank buying as a continuing tailwind for the metal. With inflation pressures and geopolitical risks mounting, gold remains a preferred hedge for institutional and private investors alike.
April’s Producer Price Index showed wholesale prices fell 0.5% – the largest monthly drop since early COVID. While annual inflation slowed to 2.4%, the decrease primarily came from a 1.7% decline in trade margins, indicating businesses are temporarily absorbing tariff costs rather than passing them to consumers. Economists warn this won’t last. “We are beginning to see trade policy filtering into hard data, affecting revenues and profit margins,” says RSM’s Joe Brusuelas. In fact, core goods prices (excluding food and energy) rose 0.4% in April – the fastest monthly increase in over two years. This suggests underlying inflation pressure despite
In today’s volatile economy, protecting your retirement savings goes beyond traditional assets. That’s why many investors are turning to Gold IRAs — offering the dual benefit of wealth preservation and Gold IRA tax benefits that can strengthen long-term financial planning. Whether you choose a Traditional or Roth Gold IRA, understanding the tax rules can help you build a more resilient and efficient retirement strategy. Understanding Gold IRAs and Their Tax Classifications A Gold IRA is a self-directed retirement account that holds IRS-approved physical precious metals—such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium—instead of stocks or mutual funds. As highlighted in Why Gold
US Treasury bonds rallied as new economic data showed slowing economic activity and inflation, strengthening expectations for two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025. Two-year and 10-year yields dropped by about 10 basis points. Market traders are now pricing in rate cuts as early as September, despite major Wall Street firms recently pushing back their forecasts for Fed action. Meanwhile, concerns about the US fiscal outlook remain, with Republican tax cut plans and high government debt potentially risking higher inflation and long-term interest rates.
Gold prices experienced significant volatility on Thursday, initially dropping to $3,120 per ounce before rebounding by more than $100 during the day. This movement was caused by two opposing factors: reduced demand for safe havens as US trade tensions eased, and weak US inflation data that strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts. Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen believes that trade conflict developments will ultimately have a stronger influence on gold prices than economic data, and predicts that if more trade deals are announced, gold prices will likely continue declining.
Gold prices fell over 2% on Friday, marking its worst weekly performance since November 2024 with total losses exceeding 4%. The decline stems from the dollar’s fourth straight weekly gain and reduced safe-haven demand following a temporary U.S.-China trade agreement. This drop comes after gold reached an all-time high of $3,500.05 per ounce last month, driven by central bank buying and trade war concerns. Recent signs of slowing U.S. inflation and weaker economic data point to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, which typically favor gold. Other precious metals also declined, with silver down nearly 2% and platinum and palladium showing
US inflation hit its lowest point since February 2021, dropping to 2.3% in April. However, economists warn this is likely the “low point in 2025” due to recently implemented tariffs whose effects weren’t fully captured in April’s data. Even with some tariff reductions, trade restrictions remain at their highest levels since World War II. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the situation, as rising inflation could complicate their plans for potential interest rate cuts. While most economists don’t expect stagflation, they anticipate inflation rising above 2.5% in the coming months.
Written by: The MacroButler The Truman Show’s roots trace back to screenwriter Andrew Niccol’s dark idea, The Malcolm Show—a dystopian thriller about a guy unknowingly trapped in a corporate-sponsored fishbowl. Enter director Peter Weir, who swapped the doom-and-gloom for satire and cast Jim Carrey in a rare “no rubber face” role. By the time it hit theatres in 1998, The Truman Show was serving up Orwell-lite with a side of media critique, long before reality TV and Instagram influencers made self-surveillance trendy. The film warned us: if someone controls the camera, they probably control the truth. Fast-forward to today’s financial markets
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that future supply chain and commodity shocks could make inflation more volatile than in the 2010s. At a research conference, he noted that long-term interest rates are now much higher than after the 2007-09 financial crisis, with the current Fed benchmark at 4.25%-4.5%. As part of its five-year policy review, the Fed is reconsidering its 2019 framework, which allowed inflation to exceed 2% to compensate for previous undershooting—timing that economist Sal Guatieri suggests may have contributed to record inflation. Unlike the previous review that worried about rates hitting zero, this update will incorporate lessons from
The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a “wait and see” approach to interest rates after April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed sticky inflation despite some cooling signs. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) remained at 2.8% year-over-year for the second consecutive month, substantially above the Fed’s 2% target. Monthly core inflation rose 0.2%, higher than March’s 0.1% but below expectations. Experts from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America believe President Trump’s tariffs haven’t yet fully materialized in inflation data, with impacts expected to appear in May or June figures. Investors continue to predict the Fed will hold rates steady
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson acknowledged recent progress on inflation but cautioned that new tariffs could reverse that trend. While April’s CPI data came in softer than expected, Jefferson noted that sustained import taxes may temporarily push inflation higher — and possibly slow the economy. He emphasized the need for a steady hand on interest rates, calling current levels “well positioned” to respond to emerging risks. Business and consumer sentiment have dipped, and the Fed is now closely monitoring for signs of economic slowdown.
Even small moves can spark big outcomes. If just a
Gold prices edged lower for the second time in three days, initially falling by 0.9% before recovering somewhat due to a weakening dollar following reports about US-South Korea currency policy discussions. The decline comes as investors react to two key factors: the unexpected trade truce between the US and China following weekend talks in Switzerland, and lower-than-expected US inflation figures for April. The trade breakthrough has reinvigorated risk appetite, helping the S&P 500 recover all its 2025 losses as investors shift away from defensive assets like gold. Despite this recent pullback, gold has performed strongly this year, rising about 20%
April saw a dramatic 12.7% decrease in egg prices – the biggest monthly drop in 40 years. While this brings some relief, eggs still cost 49.3% more than a year ago. This decline helped overall food inflation fall 0.1%, its largest monthly drop in nearly five years. Most grocery categories showed price decreases while restaurant food prices continued to rise. Experts note that increased egg imports and consumers avoiding eggs due to high prices contributed to the decline. Despite the overall positive trend, beef prices remained steady and are expected to stay high due to supply constraints.
Oil futures rose about 3% on Tuesday, driven by temporary U.S.-China tariff reductions and positive inflation data. Brent crude reached $66.81 per barrel and WTI crude hit $63.87, building on yesterday’s 4% gain following the announcement of 90-day tariff cuts between the two countries. April’s inflation rate of 2.3% – a four-year low – has led major banks to lower recession forecasts. This suggests the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates, potentially boosting consumer spending. Though OPEC+ plans to increase oil exports in coming months (May output expected to rise by 411,000 barrels daily), Saudi Arabia will keep its
Treasury yields rose slightly after April’s inflation report showed a 2.3% year-over-year increase, just below expectations. While inflation is slowing, the data may not fully reflect the impact of President Trump’s tariffs. The U.S. and China recently agreed to temporarily reduce most tariffs from 125% to 10% for 90 days, though analysts remain concerned about policy volatility and potential economic impacts of Trump’s trade policies.
Gold rebounded to $3,255.59 per ounce as markets shift focus to upcoming US inflation data. The precious metal had previously dropped when the US and China announced a 90-day tariff reduction agreement, with US duties on Chinese goods falling from 145% to 30% and China reducing most levies to 10%. While the easing trade tensions initially strengthened the dollar and raised Treasury yields (both negative for gold), some investors remain cautious about the trade deal’s limited details. Traders now expect only two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, which could limit gold’s appeal since it doesn’t pay interest.
April’s US consumer price data came in better than expected, with both headline and core inflation rising just 0.2% for the month, below the forecasted 0.3%. The annual inflation rate dropped to 2.3%, its lowest level since early 2021. While some categories showed potential early impacts from recent tariff increases, economists believe it’s too soon to see the full effects. Grocery prices declined 0.4%, with egg prices seeing their largest drop since 1984. Markets responded positively to the inflation news, with S&P futures advancing and Treasury yields falling slightly.
Inflation has a way of sneaking up on you. It chips away at your buying power, distorts long-term plans, and quietly erodes the value of your money. But you’re not powerless. For centuries, investors have turned to precious metals as a defense mechanism. Creating a gold and silver inflation hedge has become a time-tested strategy for those looking to shield their financial future when paper currencies begin to lose their footing. In times of inflation—or worse, hyperinflation—these tangible assets don’t just survive. They shine. Whether you’re looking to safeguard retirement savings, hedge against economic uncertainty, or simply diversify your portfolio,
Major central banks are taking divergent policy paths as U.S. tariffs create different challenges across the global economy. While the U.S. Federal Reserve holds rates steady due to inflation concerns, the Swiss National Bank is considering negative rates to combat currency strength, and the Bank of Japan maintains a potential hiking bias despite growing caution. The article outlines the current positions of ten developed-market central banks, with many European and Pacific nations cutting rates or signaling future cuts while dealing with the disinflationary effects of stronger currencies against the dollar and the broader impact of trade tensions.
Behind the headlines: record debt, surging defaults, and a housing
In today’s uncertain economy, inflation isn’t just an economic buzzword — it’s a steady force that quietly chips away at your purchasing power. For retirement savers, that poses a serious challenge: how do you protect what you’ve worked so hard to build? Enter the Gold IRA — a self-directed retirement account that allows you to hold physical gold and other precious metals. It combines the tax advantages of traditional IRAs with the timeless value of tangible assets. For many investors, it’s not just an alternative — it’s a strategic safeguard. How Inflation Threatens Your Retirement Inflation may feel slow, but
Gold prices are soaring. Headlines are buzzing. And many investors are asking the same thing: “Did I miss my chance to get in?” In his latest video, Mike Maloney unpacks that question — and reveals what’s really behind gold’s recent run. If you’re wondering what happens next, you’re not alone. In this video, Mike covers: If you’re sitting on the sidelines, watch Mike’s new video to get clarity before your next move. So… who’s driving the price up? Institutional Whales Are Quietly Loading Up The Public Hasn’t Even Entered the Game The majority of financial advisors still recommend
India’s gold reserves have doubled as a percentage of foreign exchange holdings over the past four years, reaching 11.70% by March 2025, up from 5.87% in March 2021, according to a recent Reserve Bank of India report. The RBI now holds 879.59 metric tonnes of gold (an increase from 854.73 tonnes in September 2024), with about 58% stored domestically and the remainder held internationally. This shift follows the global trend of central banks increasing gold holdings to hedge against inflation and currency volatility.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady this week despite President Trump’s calls for cuts. This decision is bolstered by April’s strong job growth of 177,000, which demonstrates labor market health. Though inflation is slowly easing, proposed import tariffs could potentially reverse this trend. In a recent NBC interview, Trump stated he won’t fire Chair Powell despite criticizing the Fed’s rate policies. Economic uncertainty persists due to potential White House trade deals that could reshape conditions. With limited economic data expected this week, analysts will focus on jobless claims for any signs of labor market weakness.
ANZ Bank sees gold’s recent retreat from its $3,500/oz peak as a temporary correction creating a buying opportunity. Despite improved US-China relations, several factors support higher gold prices: Q1 US GDP contracted for the first time since 2022, inflation expectations rose to 6.7% due to tariff pressures, and markets anticipate up to 100bp in Fed rate cuts. Gold demand in Q1 reached its highest level since 2016, with investment demand up 170% year-over-year and ETF flows turning positive. Central bank buying remained strong, though jewelry demand declined due to high prices. ANZ maintains its $3,600/oz year-end target and identifies $3,000-3,200/oz
The April jobs report showed stronger-than-expected growth with 177,000 new jobs and steady 4.2% unemployment, supporting Fed Chair Powell’s cautious approach to interest rates. President Trump, however, is pushing for rate cuts, citing low inflation and decreasing costs in gas, groceries, and mortgages. While inflation has slowed to 2.6% in March, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Market traders now see June rate cuts as less likely, especially as economists warn that Trump’s tariffs could significantly impact the economy in coming months.
Gold prices have reached historic highs, now trading above inflation-adjusted records from 1980 and significantly exceeding its long-term trend. However, history suggests gold purchased at such elevated prices often delivers poor returns. Currently, gold appears overvalued compared to other commodities, trading at record ratios against oil, silver, and especially platinum. Meanwhile, platinum is trading 25% below its 50-year average and at its cheapest-ever level relative to gold. While gold benefits from economic uncertainty and concerns about the dollar, industrial metals like platinum face challenges from potential economic downturns and the electric vehicle transition, though recent EV slowdowns and supply constraints
Gold prices have reached historic highs, now trading above inflation-adjusted records from 1980 and significantly exceeding its long-term trend. However, history suggests gold purchased at such elevated prices often delivers poor returns. Currently, gold appears overvalued compared to other commodities, trading at record ratios against oil, silver, and especially platinum. Meanwhile, platinum is trading 25% below its 50-year average and at its cheapest-ever level relative to gold. While gold benefits from economic uncertainty and concerns about the dollar, industrial metals like platinum face challenges from potential economic downturns and the electric vehicle transition, though recent EV slowdowns and supply constraints
McDonald’s missed Wall Street expectations in its first quarter earnings report, with revenue falling 3% compared to last year. The company saw a 3.6% drop in US same-store sales, as fewer customers visited its restaurants. According to CEO Chris Kempczinski, visits from low-income consumers fell “nearly double digits” and middle-income customer traffic declined almost as much, while high-income customer visits remained stable. The CEO pointed to the “cumulative impact of inflation” and economic anxiety affecting lower and middle-income consumers. An analyst noted these results weren’t surprising given the ongoing weakness among McDonald’s core lower-income customer base.
The Japanese yen fell after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and lowered economic growth forecasts due to US tariffs. The BOJ pushed back its inflation target timeline by about a year, with Governor Ueda stating there’s no rush to raise rates. Meanwhile, the US dollar stabilized against most currencies after earlier losses related to Trump’s tariff threats. Markets are now awaiting US jobs data on Friday while watching for potential cooling in trade tensions, as Trump has suggested possible deals with several countries including China.
Treasury yields held stable on Thursday despite two concerning economic reports. First, the U.S. economy contracted at a 0.3% rate in Q1 2024—its first decline in three years. Second, weekly jobless claims rose to 241,000, exceeding economists’ expectations of 225,000. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly to 4.148%, while the 2-year yield fell to 3.582%. The GDP decline was largely driven by surging imports (ahead of President Trump’s April tariff order) and reduced federal spending, while consumer spending grew at just 1.8%. Inflation data was mixed, with the Fed’s preferred measure (PCE index) showing a quarterly increase but remaining
As economic uncertainty grows in the U.S., most major financial institutions including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have updated their forecasts to predict a recession in 2025. Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic, with many Americans planning to reduce spending. Against this backdrop of trade war tensions that have caused global markets to lose $10 trillion temporarily, “Shark Tank” investor Kevin O’Leary offers a contrarian view. O’Leary O’Leary suggests that recession fears may be exaggerated, though he acknowledges that the U.S.-China trade relationship will play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary
Consumer confidence has fallen for the fifth consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since the early COVID-19 pandemic. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 86 in April, below both March’s 92.9 reading and economists’ expectations of 88. Particularly concerning is the Expectations Index, which fell to 54.4 – its lowest since 2011 and well below the 80 threshold that typically signals an upcoming recession. Inflation expectations have risen to 7%, and job outlook has deteriorated significantly, with 32.1% of consumers expecting fewer job opportunities. These concerns appear linked to President Trump’s recent tariff announcements, with consumers worried about
Gold is still up 44% YoY — but after hitting
The Federal Reserve faces a difficult challenge balancing two opposing economic threats: rising prices due to new tariffs and increasing unemployment. This combination risks “stagflation” – a dangerous economic condition where inflation increases while job growth weakens. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has chosen a wait-and-see approach for now, but history shows stagflation is extremely difficult to resolve. Similar to the 1970s crisis, today’s economy faces external price shocks (tariffs instead of oil prices) while consumers are already struggling. For investors, stagflation creates a challenging environment where both stocks and bonds typically perform poorly.
Learn how capital rotation precious metals indicators help investors identify
Wall Street is experiencing significant volatility as President Trump escalates his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump wants immediate interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, even threatening to fire Powell on social media before walking back those comments in an Oval Office meeting. Economic experts, including Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, predict no rate changes at the upcoming May Fed meeting, noting that monetary policy will likely remain unchanged until there’s more clarity on trade wars and economic policy. Investors are concerned about potential threats to Fed independence, which has historically led to inflation problems.
Consumer financial distress is at its worst level in 12 years according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, with over 11% of Americans making only minimum payments on credit cards and delinquencies hitting record highs. This crisis stems from years of above-target inflation that has outpaced wage growth, forcing many to rely on credit cards for essential expenses. A recent survey found one-third of Americans use credit cards to make ends meet, with many maxing out their cards. With interest rates averaging 21.37%, minimum payments barely cover interest charges.
In a recent Opinion piece on MarketWatch, columnist Stephen Roach argues that Trump’s “America First” protectionism is leading the US toward prolonged stagflation – a combination of slow economic growth and high inflation. Unlike the temporary supply chain disruptions during COVID-19, Trump’s trade policies represent a permanent decoupling from global trade networks, especially with China and potentially even with North American partners. This reversal of supply chain efficiencies could eliminate the 0.5 percentage point reduction in inflation that the US has enjoyed annually over the past decade. Reshoring manufacturing to the US won’t be quick or easy, as production platforms
In an economic world shaped by rising debt, global uncertainty,
Brandon Sauerwein, Editor Since 2000: Gold +1,088% Returns | SPY +478% Returns What we’re witnessing isn’t just a bull run — it’s a reawakening in precious metals. In just the past month, gold shattered the $3,000 milestone and briefly touched $3,500 an ounce early Tuesday morning — a historic surge that has stunned even veteran investors. But this move isn’t happening in isolation. A perfect storm is unfolding: escalating tariff tensions, ballooning global debt, surging central bank demand (especially from the East), and a growing global shift away from the U.S. dollar are rewriting the rules of gold. Traditional forces
President Trump moderated his stance on tariffs and the Federal Reserve after facing pressure from major retailers and witnessing market declines. CEOs from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot warned him that continued tariff policies could lead to empty shelves and price increases within two weeks. Following these warnings and a market slump, Trump softened his rhetoric, signaling potential trade talks with China that could reduce tariffs from 145%, and backing away from threats to fire Fed Chair Powell. While White House officials describe this as strategic negotiation rather than weakness, Trump faces declining economic approval ratings amid concerns about inflation,
Gold passes $3,400 per ounce, shattering another historic milestone — a move that has left even seasoned market watchers astonished at the speed and intensity of the current bull market. In just the past few days, gold has leapt from breaking the $3,300 barrier to topping $3,400, a feat that underscores how rapidly momentum is building in the precious metals space. The Velocity of Gold’s Rally: Unprecedented Acceleration The pace of gold’s ascent in 2025 is nothing short of extraordinary. Year-to-date, gold has gained over 30%, and we’re not even halfway through the year. Gold is vastly outpacing its historical
Is it too late to jump on the gold train?
Recent Federal Reserve surveys reveal US manufacturers’ growing concerns about Trump’s tariff plans. The Philadelphia Fed’s April manufacturing index plunged to -26, its lowest since April 2023, while the prices paid index hit a 21-month high. Similarly, the New York Fed’s survey showed deteriorating business expectations, with its future business climate index reaching its lowest point since 2009. These worrying indicators emerge as Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs push effective US tariff rates to their highest level in a century, with economists warning of increased inflation and slower economic growth.
Written by: The MacroButler As the “Forward Confusion” campaign hits full stride under the mandate of the ‘Disruptor In Chief’, one thing’s already crystal clear: Bitcoin is doing a stellar job, at not being a store of value. Despite the breathless hype from some in the new administration touting it as the new gold, or even a future U.S. reserve asset, it promptly peaked the day after inauguration and has been gracefully tumbling ever since. And let’s not forget Ether, lovingly marketed as “digital silver” for the YOLO crowd, it’s down nearly 50% since the start of the Jubilee Year.
Federal Reserve officials continue resisting pressure to lower interest rates, despite President Trump’s demands and his call for Fed Chair Powell’s “termination.” New York Fed President John Williams stated clearly that he sees no need to adjust rates soon. Trump, who appointed Powell in 2017 but quickly began criticizing him, has economic advisers who say Powell will complete his term ending May 2026. However, Trump’s unpredictable approach has Wall Street concerned, especially with a Supreme Court case that could potentially allow presidents to fire independent agency commissioners. Fed officials remain focused on inflation concerns. Williams acknowledged a likely inflation burst
The U.S. Treasury bond market is exhibiting alarming behavior that suggests economic trouble ahead, even as stock investors remain seemingly oblivious. On April 7, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned that most CEOs believe we’re already in a recession. Oddly, this statement didn’t drive investors to the usual safe haven of Treasury bonds. Instead, the 10-year Treasury yield experienced a dramatic intraday swing—a rare event previously seen only during major financial disruptions like the 2008 crisis. Bond investors are increasingly distrustful of U.S. economic policy, fearing rising tariffs and returning inflation. This has fueled a flight to gold, which surged
President Trump escalated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, calling for his termination via Truth Social. Trump demanded immediate interest rate cuts, claiming Powell is “always TOO LATE AND WRONG” and should have followed the European Central Bank’s example of monetary easing. This comes after Powell warned that Trump’s new tariffs (the steepest in over 100 years) would likely cause “higher inflation and slower growth,” creating tension between the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Powell noted these tariffs, some paused for 90 days, have already disrupted markets and created economic uncertainty. Powell,
Federal Reserve Chair Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs could force the Fed to choose between its dual mandates of controlling inflation and supporting growth. Speaking in Chicago, he stated tariffs would likely push the economy “further away from our goals” throughout this year by potentially raising inflation while slowing economic growth. Powell explained that tariff-driven inflation might be temporary or persistent, depending on their magnitude, how quickly price increases spread, and whether inflation expectations remain stable. He offered no specific guidance on interest rates, saying the Fed is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity” before making policy changes. Markets
U.S. retail sales jumped 1.4% in March, the largest increase in over two years, as consumers rushed to purchase big-ticket items, especially vehicles, before potential tariff-induced price increases. While this surge exceeded expectations, economists warn it could lead to weaker future sales and doesn’t eliminate concerns about how ongoing trade wars might fuel inflation and slow economic growth in coming months. Restaurant sales showed strong growth, suggesting consumers remain confident despite trade tensions.
As markets grapple with tariff chaos, gold soars to a
When the economy starts to falter, smart investors often reach for gold. Acting as a proven gold recession hedge throughout market cycles, this precious metal offers a financial sanctuary during uncertain times. But why exactly do gold and silver become so valuable when times get tough? Throughout history, gold has been the go-to safe haven when other investments start to crumble. While stocks dive and real estate cools during recessions, gold often follows its own path — one that can help keep your overall wealth intact. What Makes Gold Special During Tough Economic Times? When recession hits, traditional investments typically
Fed Governor Chris Waller stated that if President Trump’s large tariffs remain in place, the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates sooner than planned. Despite potential inflation spikes up to 5%, Waller believes any tariff-induced inflation would be temporary, and the threat of economic slowdown would outweigh inflation concerns. He outlined two scenarios: a “large tariff” scenario (25% average rate) that might require immediate action, and a “smaller tariff” scenario (10% average rate) that would allow for more gradual policy adjustments.
Gold prices have soared to unprecedented heights in 2025, breaking more than a dozen records and currently trading above $3,200. As investors seek safety amid economic uncertainty, CNBC consulted with financial experts on whether it’s still a good time to buy. Expert opinions remain divided. Sameer Samana of Wells Fargo Investment Institute cautions that gold is “overbought” and investors are “coming late to the party,” suggesting prices may have peaked. However, Jordan Roy-Byrne of The Daily Gold offers a contrasting view, predicting that prices “could accelerate” further in the coming years. For those looking to invest, financial advisors typically recommend
Gold prices reached an unprecedented high exceeding $3,200 an ounce, climbing as much as 1.9% to $3,237.89 on Friday and continuing a weekly increase of about 6%. This surge highlights gold’s status as a financial safe haven during economic uncertainty. The primary driver has been President Trump’s inconsistent tariff policies, which have triggered significant selloffs across US stocks, bonds, and the dollar markets as recession fears spread. Despite announcing a 90-day pause on tariff increases for most trading partners, duties on all Chinese imports remain at least 145%. China responded by raising tariffs on US goods to 125% while dismissing
The recent pullback in Trump’s trade war isn’t as significant as markets initially believed. Despite a 90-day pause and reduction to 10% for most reciprocal tariffs, U.S. consumers still face the highest effective tariff rates since 1909. PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding warns this represents an economic shock unseen since the 1920s-30s, estimating each percentage point increase in tariffs reduces U.S. growth by 0.1% while adding similar amounts to inflation. She predicts a likely U.S. recession with core inflation potentially reaching 4.5%. The situation with China has worsened particularly, with tariffs on Chinese goods now at 145% according to the White
Gold prices experienced a significant rally on Friday, jumping 1.7% to $3,227.39 per ounce and briefly touching a record high of $3,237.56. This surge pushed bullion past the key psychological barrier of $3,200, bringing its weekly gains to over 6% and yearly gains to nearly 21%. The precious metal’s rise comes amid multiple economic concerns, including an intensifying trade war between the US and China. Beijing’s decision to increase tariffs on US imports to 125% in retaliation for President Trump’s 145% duties on Chinese goods has heightened fears of global supply chain disruptions and possible recession. A weakening US dollar,
Gold prices continued their upward momentum on Thursday, climbing 1.3% to $3,122.02 per ounce amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. This follows gold’s largest daily gain since October 2023 the previous day. Despite President Trump announcing a temporary 90-day reduction in duties for numerous countries, he simultaneously increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% from 104% in response to Beijing’s 84% levy on US products. The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting minutes revealed nearly unanimous concern among policymakers about the US economy facing dual risks of higher inflation and slower growth, potentially creating “difficult trade-offs” for monetary
Thursday’s inflation report is expected to show Consumer Price Index growth of 2.5% for March, down from February’s 2.8%, marking the lowest rate since September. This decline, driven by falling energy prices, suggests post-pandemic inflation continues to fade. However, economists warn this improvement may be temporary due to President Trump’s recent tariff announcements. The March implementation of tariffs on Chinese goods may already be affecting prices, with additional tariffs on cars, steel, aluminum, and various imports scheduled to begin in April. UBS forecasters predict inflation could reach 5% if the tariffs remain in full force, though many analysts expect negotiations
In Istanbul’s 560-year-old Grand Bazaar, traders are witnessing panic as Turks rush to exchange their rapidly devaluing lira for dollars, gold, and other stable assets. The Turkish currency has lost more than 80% of its value over five years due to President Erdogan’s controversial economic policies, particularly pressuring the central bank to cut interest rates despite soaring inflation. Though Erdogan appointed new economic leadership after a close election, their cautious approach has failed to stabilize the currency. Gold traders report exhaustion from market volatility despite increased business, with industry estimates suggesting Turkish citizens privately hold $200-300 billion in gold. The
Trump’s sweeping tariffs are driving gold to record highs while
As markets falter, gold demonstrates its portfolio-stabilizing power. History shows
According to the World Gold Council’s latest monthly report, gold reached a record $3,115/oz in March 2025, posting a 9.9% monthly gain despite dollar weakness. This rally was driven by euro strength, tariff-related geopolitical concerns, and strong ETF buying, with US funds leading at $6 billion (67 tons) in net inflows. The WGC report warns about declining market liquidity, similar to 2022 when quantitative tightening caused simultaneous bond and equity declines. However, today’s environment differs significantly with its combination of sticky inflation and slow growth (stagflation), continued central bank gold purchases, and renewed US ETF investor participation. Unlike traditional commodities,
From 2022 to 2024, gold and Bitcoin moved together as alternative assets, with gold gaining 67% while Bitcoin surged nearly 400%. However, in 2025, this relationship has broken down. While gold has gained 16% in 2025, Bitcoin has fallen more than 6% from its January peak of $109,000. Analysts argue Bitcoin’s previous growth came from major financial firms like BlackRock entering the market, along with government backing from El Salvador and US plans for a crypto reserve. Its recent decline stems from two factors: investors selling after positive news was already reflected in the price, and Bitcoin’s continued link to
President Trump’s new tariffs—the highest in over 100 years—have put the Federal Reserve in a tough spot. These tariffs could cause two problems at once: higher prices for consumers and slower economic growth, with some economists even warning about a possible recession. Wall Street traders think the Fed will cut interest rates four times this year starting in June, believing that a slowing economy will be the bigger concern. But experts disagree on what will happen: Morgan Stanley predicts no rate cuts because of inflation risks, while other analysts see many different possibilities. Fed leaders, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson,
Federal Reserve Chair Powell now warns that Trump’s new global tariffs will have “significantly larger than expected” economic effects, causing higher inflation and slower growth. This marks a shift from his March position that tariff impacts would be temporary. Despite these concerns, Powell emphasized the Fed will remain patient before adjusting interest rates, stating they are “well positioned to wait for greater clarity.” His priority is preventing temporary price increases from becoming a persistent inflation problem. Markets responded negatively during his remarks, with stocks falling and bonds rising. Powell believes policy uncertainty should decrease within a year, making the actual
JPMorgan’s recent analysis casts doubt on Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold.” Investors appear to be reassessing their inflation protection strategies, with funds flowing from Bitcoin ETFs to gold-backed alternatives. Gold has reached record highs above $3,100 per ounce and currently attracts over $9 trillion in total allocations, including $4 trillion held by central banks. Bitcoin’s underperformance since early 2025 and its correlation with technology stocks have raised questions about its effectiveness as a safe haven asset. While cryptocurrency experts estimate Bitcoin’s production cost at around $62,000—potentially providing an empirical price floor—this support appears tenuous. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded significant outflows
Gold prices have surged over 40% since late 2023, now approaching $3,200 per ounce. This increase stems not from jewelry or industrial demand but from gold’s role as a financial safe haven during uncertain times. Though gold pays no interest like bonds or dividends like stocks, it serves as protection against inflation and economic instability. Gold-backed ETFs have made it easier for investors to add gold to their portfolios. The metal demonstrated its value during COVID-19 when prices jumped 22% in six months despite low inflation. Central banks have also increased gold purchases following sanctions on Russia, as many seek
The White House announced that steel, aluminum, gold, and other metals will be exempt from the newly implemented “reciprocal” tariffs. This decision relieves domestic buyers and demonstrates caution in sectors where the US heavily depends on imports. A White House official indicated that critical minerals of strategic value could still face tariff investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. The US depends on imports for many metals where China controls the supply chain – including 80% of rare earths, about 75% of zinc and tin, and over 50% of lithium. So far, China has responded to US trade
Gold prices dipped by 0.5% to $3,119.09 on Thursday after reaching a record high of $3,167.57 earlier in the day, following President Trump’s announcement of sweeping import tariffs. Despite this pause, gold has gained 19% in 2025, supported by economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and increased investment in gold-backed ETFs. While Trump’s new tariffs have sent global markets tumbling over growth and inflation concerns, they notably exclude gold, copper, energy, and certain minerals not available in the United States.
President Trump unveiled a comprehensive new tariff strategy that combines a universal 10% tax on all imported products with additional “reciprocal” levies targeting specific trading partners. China will face the steepest total tariffs at 54% (a new 34% levy on top of an existing 20% duty), while the European Union will be charged 20% and Japan 24%. Trump described these as approximately half of what these nations charge the US. The baseline 10% tariff takes effect Saturday at 12:01 a.m. Eastern, with the reciprocal tariffs following on April 9. Additionally, goods compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will continue receiving preferential
President Trump unveiled a comprehensive new tariff strategy that combines a universal 10% tax on all imported products with additional “reciprocal” levies targeting specific trading partners. China will face the steepest total tariffs at 54% (a new 34% levy on top of an existing 20% duty), while the European Union will be charged 20% and Japan 24%. Trump described these as approximately half of what these nations charge the US. The baseline 10% tariff takes effect Saturday at 12:01 a.m. Eastern, with the reciprocal tariffs following on April 9. Additionally, goods compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will continue receiving preferential
Corporate America is dramatically cutting back on share repurchases, with March 2024 buyback announcements dropping to $39.1 billion—the lowest monthly figure since the pandemic and the lowest March total in five years. This retreat comes despite companies executing buybacks at near-record levels earlier in 2024. The slowdown reflects executive uncertainty about Trump’s imminent tariff announcements and potential retaliatory measures from trade partners, which could increase inflation and unemployment. According to Birinyi Associates, companies are conserving cash rather than cutting dividends while awaiting clarity on trade policies. With the Federal Reserve postponing interest rate cuts until inflation subsides, the pullback in
Goldman Sachs strategists, led by George Cole, have preemptively cut their Treasury yield forecasts before President Trump’s Rose Garden announcement. The team has significantly reduced their year-end projections, with 2-year yields now expected to finish 2025 at 3.3% (previously 3.95%) and 10-year yields at 4% (previously 4.35%). Their revised outlook stems from expectations of a “more severe tariff baseline,” which they predict will create a cumulative 15 percentage point increase in effective tariff rates. While these tariffs will likely push inflation higher—with core PCE potentially reaching 3.5% year-over-year—Goldman also foresees economic deceleration prompting the Federal Reserve to implement three consecutive
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is recommending a significant shift from the long-established 60/40 investment portfolio strategy toward a more diversified 50/30/20 approach. In his annual letter to clients, Fink suggests that while the traditional allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds has served investors well for generations, today’s complex financial landscape demands broader diversification. His proposed model allocates 50% to stocks, 30% to bonds, and introduces a 20% allocation to private market assets including real estate, infrastructure, and private credit. This recommendation comes as investors face increasing challenges from inflation, market volatility, and unpredictable policy changes that have tested the
Gold’s 19% surge in Q1 2025 marks its best performance
Gold prices have surged back above $2,900 as global financial markets react to both technical and emotional factors following the implementation of Trump’s tariffs. Market sentiment suggests that US economic exceptionalism may be waning, with capital potentially flowing from overpriced US stocks to other regions—particularly Europe, which appears poised for significant fiscal expansion. Recent economic reports have been disappointing, revealing a sharp deterioration in US economic data. This has increased concerns about stagflation—a problematic economic period characterized by lower growth, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation. Forward indicators suggest these conditions could materialize in coming months, creating an environment that traditionally
HSBC sees three ways gold could strengthen during what they call a “US-driven” market correction: 1. U.S. Recession Scenario: If recession fears grow, investors would move away from risky assets. This would weaken the dollar and lower Treasury yields, pushing more investors toward gold as a safe haven. 2. U.S. Stagflation Scenario: If the economy faces both weak growth and high inflation at the same time, gold could see even stronger gains. Under these conditions, Treasury yields would hit a floor while risky assets decline. 3. U.S. Debt Concerns: If the government pursues more tax cuts or extends existing ones,
Gold prices have reached unprecedented heights, up a substantial 40% increase from a year ago and a 19% rise since the beginning of 2025. This surge comes as global markets continue to decline due to growing anxiety over President Trump’s protectionist trade policies, with his latest round of tariffs scheduled for implementation on Wednesday—a day he’s dubbed “Liberation Day.” Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven during this period of economic uncertainty. Market confidence has been steadily eroding since the start of the year, with both businesses and consumers expressing concerns about inflation and the impact of
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Goldman Sachs has nearly doubled its forecast for the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months, raising it from 20% to 35%. This increase comes as the U.S. approaches the Trump administration’s “liberation day” on April 2, which will clarify upcoming tariff actions and likely trigger international retaliation. The bank attributes this higher recession risk to three key factors: an already lower growth baseline, sharp recent deterioration in both household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating they’re willing to accept short-term economic weakness to pursue their policy goals. Goldman now expects President Trump
Gold reached a new all-time high of $3,128.06 per ounce on Monday as investors seek safety amid inflation concerns triggered by upcoming U.S. tariffs. This puts gold on track for its strongest quarter since 1986, with prices already up about 18% this year. This surge follows gold’s impressive 27% gain in 2023, powered by favorable monetary policies, strong central bank buying, and growing interest in gold-backed ETFs. Despite indicators showing the market is overbought, gold continues its upward momentum. Analysts point to growing anxiety about President Trump’s trade policies as the main driver, with reciprocal tariffs coming April 2 and
Economists now expect slower US growth in 2025 – just 2% for the year instead of the previously predicted 2.3%, according to Bloomberg’s latest survey. The first three months of 2025 look particularly weak, with growth expected at only 1.2%, down from earlier forecasts of 2.2%. This slowdown is happening because both consumers and businesses are spending less money due to uncertainty about President Trump’s changing trade policies. At the same time, inflation is expected to reach 2.8% by year-end, higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Because of this persistent inflation, the Fed is being cautious about cutting interest
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, held steady at 2.5% year-over-year in February, matching January’s rate. Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, came in at 2.8% annually and 0.4% monthly, slightly exceeding economists’ expectations of 2.7% and 0.3% respectively. Consumer spending showed resilience, increasing 0.4% in February after January’s 0.3% decline, while inflation-adjusted disposable income rose 0.5% monthly and 1.8% annually. Fed officials remain cautious about inflation’s outlook, not expecting a return to their 2% target until 2027. Boston Fed President Susan Collins acknowledged upcoming tariffs will likely increase inflation
Global stock markets tumbled Friday as President Trump’s announcement of 25% auto tariffs fueled fears of an escalating trade war, while gold reached new record highs as investors sought safe-haven assets. Asian markets were hit particularly hard, with Japan’s Nikkei falling nearly 2% as Toyota and Honda shares dropped sharply. South Korea’s Kospi similarly declined 2%, while Europe’s STOXX 600 edged down with its automotive sector logging its sixth straight week of losses. Automakers including Volvo, Audi, Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai have begun relocating production in response to the tariffs. Markets remain anxious ahead of April 2, when reciprocal measures against
Gold has hit a record high of $3,086.21 an ounce as investors seek safety amid trade tensions following President Trump’s upcoming April 2 reciprocal tariffs. These measures have sparked concerns about inflation, slower economic growth, and trade conflicts. Heading for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, gold’s rise is fueled by safe-haven demand, central bank buying in Asia, and growing institutional investment in gold-backed ETFs. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank notes gold’s enduring value as a wealth preserver during market turbulence. Investors are watching upcoming U.S. inflation data for Federal Reserve policy clues, with analyst Alexander Zumpfe projecting gold could reach
Silver prices (XAG/USD) have risen to nearly $34 during European trading as President Trump’s announcement of permanent 25% tariffs on imported vehicles sparked global economic concerns, enhancing silver’s status as a safe-haven asset. These tariffs, effective April 2, will significantly impact top auto exporters to the US including Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Germany. The measures have also weakened the US Dollar as domestic economic consequences are anticipated – US automakers may need to relocate manufacturing domestically, potentially increasing car prices due to higher labor costs and reducing household purchasing power. Investors are now focused on Friday’s Personal Consumption
The Federal Reserve has increasingly adopted the word “uncertainty” in its communications, with Chair Powell using it 22 times after the latest rate decision and other officials following suit. This uncertainty stems largely from Trump’s planned tariffs, affecting the Fed’s inflation and growth projections while maintaining expectations for two rate cuts this year. The business sector is echoing these concerns, with companies like FedEx and Delta citing uncertainty when lowering forecasts, while consumer confidence has dropped to a four-year low amid policy apprehensions.
U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Thursday with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield increasing more than three basis points to 4.371% and the 2-year yield rising slightly to 4.012%. Investors are processing President Trump’s announcement of new 25% tariffs on all foreign-manufactured automobiles, though cars with U.S.-made parts will be exempt. These tariffs add to growing concerns about potential economic impacts amid signs of weakness in the U.S. economy, including consumer confidence hitting a 12-year low. However, the latest unemployment data offered some reassurance, with initial jobless claims at 224,000 for the week ending March 22 (down 1,000 from the
President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts caused global market disruptions on Thursday. Stock markets in Europe fell while Wall Street futures pointed lower, with major automakers like Volkswagen, BMW, GM, and Ford seeing significant share price drops. Investors sought safety in gold, which rose to near-record levels as concerns mounted about the tariffs’ potential impact on global economic growth and inflation. Trump indicated next week’s broader “reciprocal tariffs” might be “lenient.”
Gold prices climbed sharply on Thursday, rising more than 1% to $3,053 an ounce—just shy of the all-time high of $3,057.21 set on March 20. The surge followed President Trump’s announcement of new 25% tariffs on imported cars and trucks, scheduled to begin next week, which has heightened global trade tensions. Gold, traditionally viewed as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, has benefited significantly from this environment, gaining over 15% this year. Analysts attribute the rise to economic uncertainty driven by U.S. policy decisions, with WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah describing gold as a “defensive, anti-fragile asset.” Investors are now focused on
Gold crossed the psychological $3,000/oz barrier in mid-March trading sessions, capturing global attention from investors and media alike. While hitting triple zeros makes headlines, the truly significant aspect is gold’s unprecedented pace of appreciation. The metal has reached over 40 new all-time highs in 2024 alone, and the latest $500 increment happened eight times faster than historical averages – just 210 days compared to the typical 1,700 days for previous $500 increments. This extraordinary momentum has pushed gold three standard deviations above its 200-day moving average, suggesting a “perfect storm” for the precious metal. Though some consolidation may occur due
“On average, gold takes 1,708 days to climb $500 increments,
Gold prices edged up 0.2% to $3,026.38 an ounce on Wednesday as markets brace for President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariff plans expected on April 2. Analysts warn these policies could create a stagflationary scenario – combining high inflation with slow economic growth – which typically supports gold prices. U.S. consumer confidence has already fallen to a four-year low as households fear recession and tariff-driven inflation. Gold, traditionally a hedge against economic instability, has climbed over 15% this year, reaching an all-time high of $3,057.21 on March 20. Investors are also monitoring upcoming Federal Reserve officials’ speeches and Friday’s personal consumption
Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, has reduced his 2024 interest rate cut projection from two to just one, citing tariffs as a major obstacle to inflation reduction. Bostic now expects inflation won’t reach the Fed’s 2% target until early 2027—later than previously anticipated but in line with other Fed officials’ forecasts. While the median Fed projection still indicates a half percentage point of cuts this year, an increasing number of officials favor just one cut or none at all. Unlike Chair Powell, who recently described tariff-related inflation as “transitory,” Bostic avoided using this term—a word
Gold prices rose 0.3% to $3,020.73 an ounce on Tuesday amid continuing uncertainty over President Trump’s planned reciprocal tariffs. Markets expect these tariffs to slow economic growth, though Trump indicated not all threatened levies will be imposed on April 2 and some countries may receive exemptions. Many analysts expect gold to remain supported above the $3,000 level due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and economic slowdown concerns, with traders likely viewing price dips as buying opportunities. Investors await Friday’s PCE data, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, for further hints on monetary policy.
The Bank of Japan is maintaining its rate-hiking trajectory despite growing global economic uncertainties, particularly from threatened Trump administration tariffs that have other central banks considering rate cuts. At last week’s meeting, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda balanced warnings about global risks with increasing concern over stubborn domestic food inflation, which has kept Japan’s core inflation at 3.0% in February, above the BOJ’s 2% target for nearly three years. Notably, Ueda has shifted from previously dismissing food price increases as temporary to acknowledging they could have lasting impacts on inflation expectations and public sentiment – key factors in BOJ rate decision
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled two potential interest rate cuts this year, adopting a dovish stance that surprised investors concerned about stagflation. The Fed’s base case assumes tariff-induced inflation will be “transitory” with only a short-term impact on prices, projecting inflation to reach 2.7% by year-end before returning to its 2% target by 2027. However, experts warn this outlook may be unrealistic given Trump administration trade policy uncertainties. Despite the Fed’s cautious projections, markets are pricing in three cuts instead of two, though analysts advise investors to focus on fundamentals like earnings growth rather than Fed forecasts given the
US core inflation remains elevated at an estimated 2.7% annual pace for February, keeping the Federal Reserve cautious about rate cuts. Fed officials are monitoring the potential impact of President Trump’s planned April 2 “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs, which could further pressure prices. This economic uncertainty, combined with recent consumer spending growth and income moderation, has led the Fed to maintain current interest rates while they assess how the administration’s trade policies will affect inflation and economic activity.
For almost a decade before the pandemic, Americans barely noticed inflation as prices rose so slowly. Now at 2.5% based on the Fed’s preferred PCE index (down from a 40-year high of 7.3% in 2022), some economists question whether returning to the 2% target is feasible or even desired by the Federal Reserve. The economic landscape has fundamentally changed, with the Trump administration’s aggressive policies complicating the Fed’s inflation management. New tariffs and trade wars threaten to increase prices, while tax cuts and deregulation could stimulate the economy, driving up costs for scarce labor and resources. According to Steve Blitz,
Gold prices remained steady around $3,026.85 an ounce on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and uncertainty over President Trump’s upcoming tariff plans. After reaching an all-time high of $3,057.21 last week, gold continues to be viewed as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Analysts suggest prices could reach $3,150 in the near term, though the market awaits clarity on Trump’s April 2 tariff implementation and Friday’s PCE inflation data release.
Gold prices are holding steady at approximately $3,029 an ounce after news that President Trump’s next round of tariffs will be more focused than initially suggested. This more measured approach could reduce inflationary pressure and keep interest rates lower, which is advantageous for gold as it doesn’t yield interest. Despite this potentially positive development, markets remain cautious about the tariffs’ broader impact and geopolitical disruptions. Chinese Premier Li Qiang stated that China is prepared for tariff shocks, while Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned of the “seismic” impact of US policies on the global economy. Gold has seen a remarkable 15%
President Trump urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates ahead of his new tariff implementation, posting on Truth Social that the Fed would be “MUCH better off CUTTING RATES” before his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that Trump’s tariffs will likely increase prices, though he called these effects potentially “transitory” – language previously criticized by Trump allies during the Biden administration. Despite these inflation concerns, the Fed kept rates steady while maintaining its forecast for two cuts later this year, leading some analysts to suggest the Fed may be underestimating the tariffs’ economic impact.
Americans are finding it harder to cover emergencies, according to a February survey from the New York Federal Reserve. Only 62.7% of people believe they could come up with $2,000 within a month if needed—the lowest percentage since tracking began in 2015. This financial squeeze is even worse considering prices have risen 35% since then. While recent inflation numbers were slightly better than expected, experts worry that Trump’s tariffs could push prices higher this year. Fed Chair Powell admitted tariffs are already affecting inflation but doesn’t think this will last long-term. Meanwhile, retailers are seeing signs of consumer strain—Walmart’s CEO
Gold continues to trade near its all-time high of $3,057.49 per ounce as market instability grows over potential trade war escalation. With President Trump’s administration preparing to announce new tariffs on April 2, investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven asset. The precious metal has climbed 16% this year alone, achieving 15 record highs in 2025 and extending its strong performance from last year. Beyond trade concerns, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have enhanced gold’s appeal, prompting major financial institutions like Macquarie Group to raise price targets, with predictions reaching as high as $3,500 per
Federal Reserve officials have significantly lowered their economic growth projections to below 2% while simultaneously increasing their inflation outlook. Growth is now expected at just 1.7% (down from December’s 2.1% projection), while core inflation is forecast at 2.8% annually (up from 2.5%). This combination of slowing growth and rising inflation has sparked stagflation concerns. Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that inflation “has started to move up” partly due to tariffs, and noted “significant concerns about downside risks” despite an overall “solid picture.” The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% and still projects two rate cuts for 2025, though their stance
Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted regret in May 2023 for calling pandemic inflation “transitory.” Throughout 2021, Powell insisted rising prices were temporary, blaming supply chain problems and product shortages from the pandemic. He was wrong. Inflation hit a 40-year high in 2022, forcing the Fed to rapidly raise interest rates. Republicans harshly criticized Powell for this error and slow response. Now, in a surprising flip-flop, Trump officials are using the very word they once attacked. After Powell said “the last time there were tariffs… the inflation was transitory,” Trump’s economic advisor Kevin Hassett eagerly repeated this claim to White House
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday while slowing its balance sheet reduction. Fed officials raised their year-end inflation forecast to 2.7% (up from December’s 2.5%), despite projecting slower economic growth, partly due to expected Trump administration tariffs. Chair Powell cited “unusually elevated” uncertainty in current projections. The dollar has dropped about 6% against the euro since mid-January amid trade policy concerns, with markets likely remaining cautious until Q1 GDP data emerges. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira hit record lows after authorities detained President Erdogan’s main political rival, while the yen strengthened following the Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain
The Federal Reserve has revived its “transitory” inflation stance, projecting inflation will spike to 2.8% in 2025 before falling back to 2% in later years. Powell suggested tariff-induced inflation could be temporary if it moves quickly through the economy while expectations remain anchored. This addresses concerns that Trump’s tariffs could spark a trade war and renew inflation problems. The Fed’s position comes after its 2021 misjudgment when inflation, predicted to be temporary, surged to 9% and required aggressive rate hikes. Despite this history, markets reacted positively—the Dow rose 383 points—as investors appeared to trust the Fed’s control over inflation. Powell
Gold prices stabilized at $3,044.44 an ounce on Thursday after hitting a new all-time high of $3,057.21 earlier in the day. This marks the 16th record high for gold this year, with four peaks above the significant $3,000 threshold. The surge is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve signaling likely interest rate cuts later in 2025, with traders pricing in about 66 basis points of easing this year. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty have increased safe-haven demand for the precious metal. While the strengthening U.S. dollar (up 0.3%) is creating some downward pressure by making gold more expensive
Written by: The MacroButler In antique history, the Judaean silver trade played a pivotal role in the ancient economy, especially during the late Second Temple period, when the region fell successively under Persian, Hellenistic, and later Roman rule. Silver served as the primary medium of exchange, with Tyrian shekels emerging as the preferred coinage for temple transactions, including the annual temple tax paid by Jewish pilgrims. Judaea’s access to silver relied on trade networks linking it to Mediterranean markets, facilitated largely by Phoenician merchants and Nabataean traders, who sustained commerce along vital trade routes. Furthermore, Rome’s dominance over the province
After 15 years of formation, silver’s massive cup and handle
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5% during its closely watched meeting on Wednesday, where they’ve remained since December. Despite holding rates constant, the Fed still anticipates implementing two rate cuts before year’s end. The decision comes as officials express concerns about tariffs’ impact on an already slowing economy. The Federal Open Market Committee has downgraded its economic growth outlook to just 1.7% for this year—a 0.4 percentage point reduction from December’s projection—while simultaneously raising its inflation forecast. Additionally, the Fed announced it would further scale back its “quantitative tightening” program, slowing the pace at which it’s reducing
The Treasury market has rallied significantly this year, delivering a 2.4% return and pushing yields to 2025 lows as investors respond to a weakening equity market and rising trade tensions. Bond investors are now awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments after Wednesday’s meeting, hoping for signs that this positive momentum will continue. Market sentiment has recently shifted due to President Trump’s tariff policies and international retaliation, creating a mixed economic outlook with slower growth predictions alongside renewed inflation concerns. Despite Powell’s recent claim that “the economy’s fine,” investors will closely analyze his remarks and the Fed’s updated economic projections
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at their current 4.25%-4.5% range during Wednesday’s meeting, but may revise their economic outlook and future rate cut projections. Amid uncertainty from President Trump’s trade and fiscal policies, Fed officials led by Chair Powell have emphasized patience, insisting “there is no need to be in a hurry.” Markets will focus on the quarterly projections and “dot plot” showing individual members’ rate intentions, with some economists predicting the Fed may reduce their previous forecast of two rate cuts for 2025 due to inflation concerns from tariffs. While markets are currently pricing
Gold prices have reached a new intraday record of $3,047 per ounce, continuing its remarkable rally with multiple record-breaking moments this year. Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, has shared his expert perspective on this price movement. According to Cavatoni, several factors are driving gold’s strength, including rising food and gas prices that have contributed to higher metals prices overall. He also noted that Trump’s tariff policies could spark a global trade slowdown, further impacting markets. This gold price milestone comes amid widespread economic uncertainties, including persistent inflation concerns, escalating geopolitical tensions, and anticipated shifts in
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates at their meeting Wednesday, with officials likely projecting one or two rate cuts this year. However, beneath this apparent continuity lies a significant strategy shift due to inflation threats from potential new tariffs. While the Fed previously considered cutting rates based on declining inflation (good news), they now face a complex scenario where tariffs could simultaneously increase prices and weaken economic growth. This puts the Fed in a difficult position: unable to easily cut rates due to inflation risks but potentially needing to address economic slowdown.
Bank of America’s monthly survey shows fund managers have experienced a “bull crash” in sentiment, with optimism rapidly draining. The survey recorded the second-biggest drop in global growth expectations in its history, plummeting from -2% in February to -44% in March. U.S. equity allocations saw their largest decline ever, while cash levels jumped from 3.5% to 4.1% – the biggest increase since March 2020. Bank of America strategists attribute this shift to fears of stagflation, trade wars, and the end of “U.S. exceptionalism.” Despite the pessimism, only 11% of respondents anticipate a hard landing, suggesting positioning hasn’t reached extreme bearish
U.S. consumer confidence has hit its lowest point since November 2022, according to the latest University of Michigan survey. This sharp decline comes despite recent economic improvements. – Inflation dropped from 7.1% (November 2022) to 2.9% (December 2024) – GDP grew at 2.3% during Q4 2024 – These positive indicators had suggested a possible “soft landing” – where inflation is controlled without causing a recession New Concerns President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have dramatically changed the outlook for 2025. Americans now expect: – Inflation to jump to 4.9% – nearly double current levels – Increased recession risk, with Treasury Secretary
A significant majority of Americans (63%) view inflation as a “very big problem,” according to a recent Pew Research survey, while more than 40% of middle-income Americans cite it as their top financial concern in a 2024 Primerica survey. Though inflation has decreased from its July 2022 peak of 9.1%, January 2025’s rate remains at 3%—still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Investors can combat inflation’s impact by: – Prioritizing spending by focusing on what adds the most value to your life rather than making random cuts – Boosting income through strategic side hustles that fit your schedule – And
Consumer sentiment in the US has plummeted to a 29-month low of 57.6 in March, down from 64.7 in February, according to the University of Michigan survey. The post-election optimism has vanished as Americans worry about inflation from President Trump’s tariffs and uncertainty around economic policies. Expectations for the next six months dropped sharply to 54.2 from 64.0, reaching a level not seen since mid-2022. Even Republican confidence has declined by 10% despite initial post-election enthusiasm. The stock market has responded negatively to the tariffs and recession concerns, while inflation expectations have hit a 29-month high.
A century-old market indicator called the Dow Theory is signaling trouble ahead for stocks. The theory states that movements in the Dow Jones Industrial Average must be confirmed by transport stocks to be sustainable. Currently, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has fallen 19% from its November peak, nearing bear-market territory, while the Industrial Average is down 9.3% from its December high. This bearish signal comes amid worrying forecasts from airlines and retailers citing weak demand, and growing concerns about the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff policies on inflation and economic activity.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates through the first half of 2025 before implementing two rate cuts beginning in September, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. President Trump’s trade policies have created uncertainty, causing economists to lower growth forecasts while raising inflation projections. New tariffs on major trading partners like China, Canada, and Mexico have unsettled financial markets and raised concerns about potential stagflation—a combination of slowing economic growth and persistent inflation.
Gold prices have broken the $3,000 per ounce barrier for the first time, reaching $3,004.86 on Friday – marking the thirteenth record high of 2025. The 14% price increase this year follows a 27% surge in 2024. Analysts attribute this rally to geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns from new tariffs, central bank buying, and investors seeking safe-haven assets amid market volatility and trade tensions with China and Canada following President Trump’s protectionist policies.
Marc Faber, the Swiss investment expert famously known as “Dr. Doom” for his consistently bearish market outlooks, has issued a stark warning to Indian retail investors during a recent NDTV Profit interview. Faber explicitly advised investors to “get out” of equities if markets show any signs of rebounding, suggesting this would be their opportunity to exit before further decline. His gloomy forecast extends beyond India, predicting that bear markets worldwide could persist for “several years” rather than being short-term corrections. Faber also highlighted a particular concern about inflation, warning that it could create a dangerous illusion where investments appear to
February’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures wholesale prices, showed no change from January, surprising economists who had predicted a 0.3% increase. This flat reading resulted from counterbalancing forces: gas prices fell by 4.7% while egg prices surged dramatically by 53.6%. The report indicates inflation pressures are easing faster than anticipated, following January’s revised 0.6% increase. However, this positive inflation outlook is now overshadowed by President Trump’s March actions imposing, revoking, and threatening various tariffs against U.S. trading partners, which could drive prices higher if implemented. As a leading indicator of consumer inflation, the PPI data may influence the Federal
Silver prices have climbed to a near five-month high of $33.40 per troy ounce, continuing upward momentum for the third consecutive session. The precious metal is benefiting from increased safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions following President Trump’s new steel and aluminum tariffs and his comments about the economy being in a “transition period.” Additionally, February’s lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data has strengthened speculation about earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts, further boosting the non-interest-bearing metal as the U.S. dollar remains under pressure.
Macquarie Group analysts, led by Marcus Garvey, forecast gold could surge to an unprecedented $3,500 per ounce during the third quarter, with an average price of $3,150. Currently trading around $2,940, gold has already gained 12% this year, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about President Trump’s tariff policies. The analysts attribute gold’s strength to investors and institutions increasingly valuing its lack of credit or counterparty risk. The precious metal is expected to find additional support from a worsening U.S. budget outlook that signals potential inflation increases, making gold more attractive as a hedge. Despite elevated prices, the physical market
UBS Investment Bank, through analyst Joni Teves, has significantly raised their gold price forecast to $3,100/oz by year-end 2025. While the fundamental narrative around gold hasn’t changed dramatically, the potential for upside growth has increased substantially. Teves explains that investors are flocking to gold primarily due to the combination of slowing economic growth prospects and higher inflation expectations. She emphasizes that gold presents a compelling case as a portfolio diversifier in the current environment, which features multiple overlapping risks – from economic growth concerns to geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures. This bullish outlook comes amid increased market interest in precious
Economic experts are increasingly warning about recession risks in the US economy two months into Donald Trump’s presidency. Major financial institutions have significantly raised their recession probability estimates—JP Morgan now forecasts a 40% chance (up from 30%), Moody’s Analytics projects 35% (up from 15%), and Goldman Sachs has increased its estimate to 20% (from 15%). These assessments come as the S&P 500 has fallen to its lowest point since September, reflecting growing investor concern. The market instability primarily stems from Trump’s implementation of tariffs on imports from America’s three largest trading partners, with threats of more to come. Despite inflation
Oil prices rose on Wednesday, with Brent crude climbing above $70 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate reaching around $67. Two main factors supported this increase: First, the US Energy Information Administration significantly lowered its forecast for global oil oversupply. The agency reduced its prediction for 2025 and cut its 2026 surplus outlook in half, based on expectations that Iran and Venezuela will produce less oil. Second, February’s US inflation report showed consumer prices rising at their slowest pace in four months. This positive economic news boosted investor confidence in riskier assets like oil after months of disappointing inflation data.
US inflation cooled more than expected in February, with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.8% annually (down from January’s 3%) and 0.2% for the month (down from January’s 0.5%). This improvement came largely from flat grocery prices and falling gas costs, while egg prices still rose 10.4% for the month but at a slower pace than January’s 15.2% increase. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) also slowed to 3.1% annually. Despite this positive news, economists warn this cooling may be temporary as President Trump’s expanding trade war and tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods are expected to push prices
The U.S. dollar remained weak on Wednesday, hovering near its lowest point in five months as traders responded to growing trade conflicts and changing geopolitical situations. In response to new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, the European Union plans to impose its own tariffs on $28.39 billion worth of American goods starting in April. This back-and-forth tariff battle has raised fears about a wider global trade war. The euro dropped slightly to $1.0902 after reaching $1.0947 on Tuesday—its highest level in five months. This strength came from two factors: Ukraine agreeing to a U.S.-suggested 30-day ceasefire with Russia and
Treasury yields rose Wednesday after milder-than-expected inflation data eased concerns about economic stagnation. The 10-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.328%, while the 2-year yield rose over 5 basis points to 3.999%. February’s Consumer Price Index showed a 0.2% monthly increase (2.8% annual rate), below economists’ forecasts of 0.3% monthly and 2.9% annually. Core CPI also came in lower at 0.2% monthly and a 3.1% annual rate. This cooler inflation reduced immediate stagflation worries amid concerns about tariff impacts. Goldman Sachs analyst Kay Haigh suggests the Fed will likely keep rates at 4.25%-4.50% this month, but may soon
Despite February’s Consumer Price Index showing a slight cooling to 2.8% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, Americans continue to experience significant inflation in everyday essentials. Food prices remain particularly challenging, with eggs seeing a dramatic 59% annual increase, now costing $5.90 per dozen compared to $2.99 a year ago. Other breakfast staples like coffee and bacon have also risen, while meat prices continue upward with ground beef increasing 2.7% to $5.96 per pound. Restaurant dining is 3.7% more expensive than last year. The healthcare sector shows no relief, with medical services up 3% annually and specific categories like home healthcare surging
U.S. inflation rose less than expected in February, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing 0.2% for the month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.8%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.2% monthly and 3.1% annually. These figures came in 0.1 percentage point below economist forecasts, providing some relief amid concerns about potential tariff impacts on future inflation. Housing costs, which make up more than one-third of the CPI calculation, rose 0.3% and accounted for approximately half of February’s overall inflation increase. Food and energy indexes both rose 0.2%, while used vehicle prices jumped 0.9% and
Gold prices rose slightly (0.1%) to $2,917.93 per ounce on Wednesday. Two main factors supported gold: uncertainty about future tariffs and a positive inflation report that suggests the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon. The latest inflation numbers showed prices increased by only 0.2% in February, much lower than January’s 0.5% increase. While this is good news now, many experts believe prices could rise again soon if new tariffs on imported goods take effect. The Fed cut interest rates by 1% last year and is expected to cut rates again starting in June due to economic worries. This helps
Gold has maintained stability around the $2,915 per ounce mark amid mixed market signals. President Trump’s contradictory statements about tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum—first announcing a doubling to 50%, then quickly dialing back—have created market uncertainty that typically benefits gold as a safe-haven asset. This comes as Trump downplays recession fears despite concerning economic indicators. Recent tepid US economic reports have sparked stagflation concerns—a challenging economic environment combining inflation pressure with slowing growth. This scenario could prompt multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year, which would generally benefit non-interest bearing assets like gold. Traders are closely watching Wednesday’s
Investors are rapidly shifting away from US stocks toward other global assets as recession fears grow and confidence in US market dominance fades. Monday saw a $1.1 trillion selloff in the Nasdaq 100, with traders moving toward precious metals, Chinese stocks, the yen, euro, and government bonds as safe havens. Gold and silver have attracted particular interest as traditional hedges against both inflation and economic uncertainty. This market rotation comes as a surprising consequence of President Trump’s “America First” policies, which have ironically triggered capital outflows from US assets. Major investment firms including Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and T. Rowe Price
Gold prices rose 0.8% to $2,912.88 per ounce on Tuesday, rebounding from Monday’s low, as investors sought safe havens amid trade war concerns. Markets are now focused on Wednesday’s U.S. inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. President Trump’s fluctuating trade policies, including tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, have unsettled global markets, with these countries implementing retaliatory measures. While gold typically serves as an inflation hedge, sustained high interest rates could diminish its appeal since it doesn’t yield interest.
Gold reached a record high of $2,951.73 per ounce in February, driven by safe-haven demand amid U.S. trade policy uncertainty and rising inflation expectations. A major factor was the 2.49% increase in gold ETF holdings—the largest monthly inflow since March 2022. Despite a late-month pullback, gold secured a 2.12% monthly gain. Meanwhile, gold mining stocks are showing strong leverage to gold prices, up 17.22% year-to-date compared to bullion’s 8.89%. The industry remains largely insulated from global tariffs, with many producers actually benefiting from foreign currency depreciation since their costs are in local currencies.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams reassured markets on Friday that inflation expectations remain stable, with “no sign of inflation expectations becoming unmoored at any forecast horizon relative to the pre-pandemic period.” Speaking at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York, Williams highlighted that these expectations have fully returned to levels observed between mid-2013 and mid-2016, before they declined during the pre-pandemic period of persistently low inflation. This stability comes despite concerns that the Trump administration’s proposed substantial tariffs could increase price pressures, as most economists anticipate these import taxes—largely paid by Americans—will push inflation higher.
While housing costs soar in dollars, gold tells a completely
Turkey’s central bank cut its key interest rate from 45% to 42.5%, marking its third straight reduction. This follows news that annual inflation has dropped below 40% for the first time in nearly two years, reaching 39.05% in February (down from 42.12% in January). This offers some relief to households struggling with diminished purchasing power. Despite the rate cut, the central bank remains cautious. The Monetary Policy Committee stated they will closely watch inflation trends and adjust rates if needed. “While inflation expectations and pricing behavior tend to improve, they continue to pose risks,” the bank warned, promising to use
Republican lawmakers are asserting that Americans are prepared to accept higher prices as a consequence of Donald Trump’s economic policies, particularly his newly implemented tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. Goldman Sachs has estimated these tariffs could raise inflation by 1 percent, potentially squeezing U.S. company profits and risking retaliatory measures from other nations. This comes as January already saw the largest consumer price increase in nearly 18 months according to Labor Department data. Despite these concerns, GOP representatives remain supportive. Senator Markwayne Mullin acknowledged tariffs could impact his state of Oklahoma but claimed his constituents are willing to “do
Economic concerns have shifted from inflation to stagflation as Trump’s tariffs begin to impact the economy. This dangerous combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation is appearing in economic data showing weaker hiring and manufacturing slowdowns. The Federal Reserve faces a difficult dilemma – cut rates to boost growth but risk worsening inflation, or maintain rates to fight inflation while potentially harming employment. Trump has acknowledged there may be “a little disturbance” as he pursues his trade agenda, while economists warn that “a trade war, by definition, is a stagflation shock.”
A US recession, once thought unlikely, now looms as a real possibility. Clear warning signs have appeared in financial markets: 10-year Treasury yields have fallen by 70 basis points recently, and oil prices have slipped below $70 per barrel. These changes come alongside disappointing economic data and worries about President Trump’s trade policies and government reforms. The economic slowdown is happening in three distinct phases. Lower-income households are feeling the squeeze first, with savings running out, credit cards at their limits, and debt increasing. Next, businesses have become cautious, taking a wait-and-see approach as policy uncertainties mount. Finally, this week’s
Gold prices are climbing as markets respond to Trump’s tariffs and expected future announcements. After a brief dip, gold has bounced back above $2,900, with traders setting their sights on the key $3,000 mark. The rally reflects a major shift in markets: the US dollar is falling instead of rising, and US stocks are dropping. This suggests investors may be losing faith in US market dominance and moving money to other regions, especially Europe, which plans to increase government spending. At the same time, recent US economic reports show worrying signs of decline, raising fears of stagflation—when growth slows but
The Federal Reserve has seven remaining meetings in 2025, with markets anticipating two to three interest rate cuts likely weighted toward the second half of the year. While March and May meetings are expected to maintain current rates (4.25-4.5%), cuts become increasingly probable starting with the June 18 or July 30 meetings. The Fed’s decision-making will balance inflation’s progress toward the 2% target against potential economic slowdown concerns, with Jerome Powell emphasizing they “don’t need to be in a hurry” to reduce rates.
Despite a US economy that has been “chugging along” with 2.3% GDP growth through Q4 2024, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s real-time GDP forecast now projects a 2.8% economic contraction. This negative swing primarily reflects a sharper-than-expected decline in post-holiday consumer spending and increased imports ahead of tariff implementation. While not necessarily signaling a recession, this projection comes amid growing consumer pessimism about economic prospects and renewed inflation concerns, particularly regarding the potential impact of Trump’s steep import tariffs on consumer prices.
Despite retreating from its recent record high of $2,947, gold appears set for additional gains. State Street’s chief gold strategist George Milling-Stanley forecasts prices between $2,900-$3,100 later this year. Three fundamental drivers support gold’s continued strength: First, central bank purchases have become a consistent feature of the gold market over the past 15 years. These acquisitions account for 10-25% of total end-user demand annually and provide crucial price support during downturns. According to Milling-Stanley, this buying “basically doubled in 2022 to more than 1,000 metric tons.” Second, emerging market investment, particularly in China and India, has surged over the past
The pound showed mixed performance on Monday—falling against the euro while rising against the US dollar. This movement followed European leaders’ announcement of plans to draft a Ukraine peace plan for the United States. The euro gained 0.10% to reach 82.53 pence, with analysts expecting it to benefit most from any Ukraine peace deal. Germany’s consideration of increased fiscal spending further supported the euro’s position. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a £1.6 billion ($2 billion) deal for Ukraine to purchase 5,000 air-defense missiles using export finance. Despite the pound rising 0.3% against the dollar to $1.2614 and recording its
Gold prices climbed back above $2,870 on Monday after last week’s pullback, helped by a falling dollar and rising concerns about Trump’s upcoming tariffs. The president plans to hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs this week and double existing charges on Chinese imports. These moves are raising fears of “stagflation” – a dangerous mix of slowing economic growth and persistent inflation that typically drives investors toward gold as a safe haven. Recent economic reports suggest the US economy may be heading in this direction, creating a perfect environment for precious metals. Meanwhile, growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts
Financial markets are facing a potentially dangerous convergence of economic factors that could trigger a significant downturn, according to Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research. The S&P 500 has already lost its yearly gains amid growing concerns about tech valuations, economic uncertainty from job cuts, and Trump’s tariff rhetoric. Behind these immediate concerns lurks a more structural threat stemming from divergent inflation profiles between nations. The U.S. and U.K. are experiencing what Joshi terms “mini-stagflation” – slowing economic growth combined with persistently high inflation expectations due to collective memory of past inflation shocks. Meanwhile, the EU and Japan maintain
America’s economy is now running on two separate tracks. The top 10% of households—those earning over $250,000 yearly—account for half of all consumer spending and a third of GDP, according to Moody’s Analytics. This concentration of spending power has reached record levels since tracking began in 1989, nearly doubling from the 1990s when these high earners represented just a third of consumer spending. This explains today’s contradictory economic signals: packed luxury restaurants alongside soaring credit card defaults, and sold-out premium events while inflation squeezes the middle class. “I’m not comfortable with it,” warns Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, about this
Why Trump’s tariff announcements and dollar strength won’t derail gold’s
Inflation rose 2.5% in January according to the PCE index, which is the measurement the Federal Reserve watches most closely. This matched what economists expected. While inflation has fallen significantly from its 9% peak in mid-2022, it’s still higher than the Fed’s 2% goal. Another inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index, showed prices rising at 3% in January. Economists note that these persistent inflation figures validate the Federal Reserve’s decision in January to hold off on further interest rate cuts. Consumer sentiment is deteriorating amid these economic pressures, with a CBS News poll revealing most Americans feel their incomes aren’t
Gold prices have fallen for the first weekly loss of 2025, trading near $2,860 an ounce after hitting a record high of $2,956.19 earlier this week. President Trump’s announcement of impending tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and additional levies on China has strengthened the US dollar, making gold less attractive to foreign investors. While concerns about inflation, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to support gold’s status as a safe haven, these factors have been overshadowed this week by profit-taking and dollar strength. Investors are now looking to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—for clues about future monetary
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned that interest rates might need to go up, not down, to fight inflation. Speaking to a local club in Virginia, he explained that several economic shifts could make inflation harder to control in the future. For years, certain factors helped keep prices stable, but now the economy faces “headwinds” from problems with global supply chains, fewer working-age Americans, and higher government spending on aging populations and defense. While these challenges aren’t certain, Barkin believes the Fed should be careful about cutting rates too quickly. He reminded listeners about the 1970s, when the Fed eased
Goldman Sachs analysts are forecasting a potential boom for the US dollar that could undermine BRICS’ efforts to reduce dollar dependence. According to strategists Karen Reichgott Fishman and Lexi Kanter, the tariffs expected under Trump’s administration may strengthen the dollar, making long positions on USD particularly attractive for investors. While these protectionist policies could drive inflation, they’re also likely to support US yields, further enhancing the dollar’s appeal. BRICS member nations, which have been actively working to challenge the dollar’s reserve currency status, now face significant headwinds as their local currencies continue to weaken against the USD. The report suggests
Inflation is once again intensifying across the US economy, with price increases affecting everything from housing to grocery staples like eggs. This renewed inflationary pressure is evident across numerous economic indicators, including input costs, wage growth, and inflation expectations. The causes mirror those of the initial pandemic inflation surge: supply-demand imbalances and labor market constraints. Additionally, the Trump administration’s planned tariffs and immigration policies are creating significant upside risks to inflation forecasts. Businesses are reporting the highest input costs since 2022, with raw materials like lumber and steel becoming more expensive. Consumer inflation expectations have reached their highest level since
Gold prices are retreating from record highs this week, dropping 2.3% from Monday’s peak to trade near $2,880 an ounce, likely ending an eight-week rally that was the longest since 2020. This pullback comes as US 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 1% on Thursday, reducing the relative attractiveness of non-interest-bearing gold. Despite this correction, bullion continues to benefit from safe-haven demand driven by global market uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff announcements, including a confirmed 25% levy on European Union imports and potential tariffs for Canada and Mexico pending a March 4 deadline. New research suggests Trump’s planned tariffs on Chinese
The U.S. dollar index recovered 0.30% to 106.56 on Wednesday, climbing from its lowest level since December 10 as Treasury yields rebounded from their recent declines. This rebound comes despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s warnings about economic fragility beneath surface-level metrics, pointing to interest rate volatility, persistent inflation, and overdependence on government sector job growth. Bessent also emphasized tariffs as an important revenue source, adding to market uncertainty. Currency strategists highlight the complex impact of tariff rhetoric, with Thierry Wizman of Macquarie noting that even discussions about tariffs can delay business activity and create disinflationary pressure, complicating the Federal Reserve’s
Invesco’s Chief Global Market Strategist Kristina Hooper explains that gold’s relationship with stocks has fundamentally changed. Historically, gold and stocks had a low correlation, moving in opposite directions, but now they’re rising in tandem. Hooper attributes this shift to investors using gold as a hedge against geopolitical and fiscal deficit risks while maintaining equity exposure. Additional factors driving gold prices include “price insensitive” central bank buying, reactions to sanctions, and gold’s emerging role as a “quasi alternative currency.” Notably, Hooper doesn’t believe the gold surge signals inflation concerns, as gold hasn’t consistently performed well as an inflation hedge.
Gold prices bounced back Wednesday after hitting a one-week low, supported by worries about Trump’s potential tariffs and a sharp decline in U.S. consumer confidence. Gold faces a complex situation with inflation. While it typically serves as a protection against rising prices, persistent inflation might force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer. This hurts gold because it doesn’t provide yield like bonds or savings accounts. Investors are now watching Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report closely. This inflation measure is the Fed’s favorite indicator and could strongly influence future interest rate decisions. Richmond Fed President Tom
Concise Summary: Gold prices have surged approximately 11% in 2025 and 42% over the past calendar year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s gains. However, some financial experts are urging caution, citing Warren Buffett’s famous investment rule to “be fearful when others are greedy.” Advisors recommend limiting gold allocation to just 1-3% of a diversified portfolio, warning against chasing returns at potentially peak prices. The current gold rush is attributed to investors seeking safe havens during uncertain times and concerns about stalled inflation progress.
Gold prices dipped slightly on Tuesday but remained near their all-time high as fears of a trade war driven by President Trump’s tariff plans continued to fuel safe-haven demand. After reaching $2,956.15 on Monday—its eleventh record high this year—spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,938.63. Analysts attribute the current range-bound trading to uncertainty about potential tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, which could further widen the price spread between U.S. and London markets. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s PCE inflation report for insights into the Federal Reserve’s future rate decisions.
Someone just took delivery of gold equal to 11% of
Gold eased slightly from Monday’s all-time high of $2,956.19 as investors took profits, though prices remain supported by changing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and rising haven demand. Increasing concerns about the US economy have dramatically shifted rate cut expectations, with markets now pricing in a quarter-point Fed cut in July—two months earlier than anticipated just last week. This monetary policy outlook benefits non-yielding assets like gold. Geopolitical tensions are adding significant support, as President Trump has implemented a series of measures targeting China that could deteriorate relations between the world’s two largest economies, while also increasing pressure on Iran.
Gold has maintained its bullish momentum throughout early 2025, marking eight straight weeks of gains—the strongest streak since 2020’s nine-week rally. After reaching a new all-time high near $2,956, the metal faced selling pressure but remains firmly in bull territory. Market analysts believe the $3,000 psychological barrier will likely be tested soon, though it may struggle to maintain that level initially. This impressive rally coincides with a weaker US dollar and persistent risk aversion stemming from uncertainty around US trade and tariff policies, particularly regarding Canada and Mexico. Investors are also closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including the Q4 2024
Investors will be closely watching Friday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the “core” Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. Economists expect January’s annual core PCE to show a slight decrease to 2.6% from December’s 2.7%, while the monthly figure is projected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%. Morgan Stanley’s chief US economist notes that if core PCE hits 2.6%, it would represent a “meaningful step down” in the 12-month inflation rate and support their prediction of a quarter-point rate cut in June.
The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure is expected to cool to 2.6% in January, reaching its lowest point since June. While this shows progress, Fed officials remain cautious about cutting interest rates further because inflation is still well above their 2% target. The improvement is mainly coming from areas that were already moderating, while other sectors continue to show concerning price increases. The report will be released alongside trade deficit data, which hit a record in December and will likely become a focus for President Trump. Bloomberg Economics suggests consumer spending may have fallen in January, potentially weakening the case
U.S. existing home sales fell 4.9% in January to an annual rate of 4.08 million units, exceeding economists’ forecasted decline. The decline to 4.08 million units annually was worse than the 4.12 million units economists had predicted. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun points to a persistent affordability crisis, as mortgage rates have remained elevated around 6.85% despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 100 basis points since September. This housing market weakness, coupled with a sharp decline in single-family housing starts, suggests residential investment is faltering early in 2024. The Fed’s pause in rate cuts reflects their assessment of
In a Fox News interview with Sean Hannity, President Trump has conceded that “inflation is back,” contrary to his campaign promise of immediate price control, but firmly places responsibility on his predecessor’s policies. January’s inflation report showed the biggest monthly increase since August 2023, with prices rising 3% year-over-year for the first time since June 2024. While Trump accurately notes that Biden held office for most of the period covered in the latest inflation report, his attribution of inflation to Biden’s “Green New Scam” and claims of $9 trillion in spending are contested. Economists remain divided on the causes of
Research by Duke University’s Campbell Harvey and former TCW manager Claude Erb suggests gold’s current rally may be setting up investors for disappointment. Their analysis shows gold’s price-to-CPI ratio is now at 9-to-1, even higher than the 7-to-1 ratio that preceded gold’s 50% price drop after 2012. The researchers challenge two popular arguments for gold investment: its effectiveness as an inflation hedge and its role as protection against geopolitical risks. While gold has outperformed inflation for the past 20 years, the study found that gold only maintains its purchasing power over very long periods – perhaps a century – and
Markets are grappling with renewed stagflation fears as stubborn 3% inflation combines with concerns over President Trump’s aggressive trade policies. While investors remain generally optimistic about Trump’s pro-growth agenda, a Bank of America survey shows fund manager worry about stagflation has reached a seven-month high. The threat of new tariffs on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, along with existing trade measures, could simultaneously slow growth and fuel inflation, creating conditions reminiscent of the 1970s economic challenge.
JP Morgan forecasts gold prices will reach $3000 per ounce in 2025, driven primarily by continued central bank purchases and ETF inflows. Following a 27% rally in 2024, the outlook remains strong with central bank buying up 54% year-over-year in late 2024, including renewed purchasing by China’s central bank. The bank identifies two scenarios – either increased trade tensions and inflation, or a Federal Reserve easing cycle – both of which could push gold prices higher. Adding to the bullish outlook, JP Morgan notes that with over $6 trillion currently in money market funds and ETF holdings 6% below 2020
Inflation concerns are resurging in America after January’s core consumer price index jumped to a 5.5% annualized rate. This concerning development comes amid President Trump’s proposed tariff policies, which could further fuel price pressures. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has raised alarm bells, comparing the current situation to the early Biden administration period when inflation reached its highest level in 40 years. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s announcements typically draw significant market attention, the focus has shifted to how Trump’s policies might impact price stability and monetary policy.
Written by: The MacroButler Savvy investors who have thoroughly studied the business cycle, the impact of monetary illusion on it, and its effects on asset allocation within the Permanent Browne portfolio should by now understand that in an inflationary environment, they should own only properties and avoid contracts. Experienced investors understand that equities are relatively straightforward to value using methods like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Book (P/B), and Dividend Discount Model (DDM). Other key metrics, such as EV/EBITDA, Price-to-Sales (P/S), Free Cash Flow (FCF) Yield, and the PEG ratio, provide additional insights. Comparative valuation, industry trends, and broader
China’s gold market started 2025 strongly, with significant price gains in both London and Shanghai markets despite fewer trading days due to Chinese New Year. While the People’s Bank of China added another 5 tonnes to its reserves in January, reaching 2,285 tonnes, Chinese gold ETFs saw their first outflow in months. The surge in gold prices has impacted jewelry demand, though investment demand remains robust amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns.
Markets are predicting a notably quiet year for Federal Reserve policy in 2025, with only an 18.3% chance of no rate changes and a 36.6% chance of just one quarter-point cut. After implementing three rate cuts in 2024, the Fed has hit pause as it carefully monitors inflation trends and potential policy impacts. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there’s only an 18.3% chance of rates remaining unchanged through December 2025, and a 36.6% chance of a single quarter-point cut. The situation is complicated by two key factors: potential seasonal adjustment issues in January’s inflation data and President Trump’s proposed
The UK’s inflation rate rose sharply to 3% in January 2024, surpassing market expectations and reaching its highest level since March 2023. The increase was primarily driven by three key factors: the introduction of 20% VAT on private school fees causing a nearly 13% price rise, higher food and non-alcoholic drink prices particularly affecting meat, bread, and cereals, and unusually modest declines in air fares during the post-holiday period. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also increased significantly from 3.2% to 3.7%. While this represents a setback for consumers, the Bank of England, which has cut interest
Americans are facing growing challenges with their debt obligations, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest report. Total household debt increased 0.5% to $18.04 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2023, with credit card balances surpassing $1.2 trillion – a 7.3% year-over-year increase. While debt growth can reflect normal economic factors like population growth, e-commerce expansion, and inflation, the report indicates Americans are struggling more than usual to manage their obligations, especially in auto loans and credit card debt.
As $10B flows weekly into gold markets, DOGE considers first
January 2025 saw retail sales fall 0.9%, marking the steepest monthly decline in a year and significantly exceeding economists’ expected 0.2% drop. The slump was broad-based, with sporting goods leading the downturn at 4.6% and auto sales falling 2.8%. Economists attribute the decline to post-holiday spending fatigue and severe winter weather. While inflation readings remain mixed, analysts project the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (Core PCE) will show improvement, dropping to 2.6% from December’s 2.8%. However, markets are now pricing in a delayed timeline for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with less than 50% probability of a cut before July.
Hong Kong’s jewelry shops are experiencing a surge in activity as gold prices hit new record highs this week. While many residents rush to sell their gold for substantial profits – up to 63% for those who bought in October 2023 – others, particularly mainland Chinese couples planning weddings, are buying despite high prices. Some analysts now predict gold could reach $3,400 this year, driven by central bank buying and inflation concerns.
Gold’s impressive 46% rally over the past year has nearly
The gold-silver ratio represents how many ounces of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold. For example, if gold is at $2,920 per ounce and silver is at $32.20 per ounce, the ratio would be approximately 90:1 (2920 ÷ 32.20 = 90.68). Traders often use this ratio as a tool for understanding relative value and potential trading opportunities. When the ratio is historically high (above 80:1), some traders view silver as undervalued relative to gold and consider buying silver while selling gold. Conversely, when the ratio is low (below 50:1), they might buy gold and sell silver. Historically,
In a recent Bloomberg Television interview, JPMorgan’s Grace Peters outlined a comprehensive investment strategy that positions gold as a crucial asset for portfolio protection. Despite acknowledging solid economic data, Peters emphasizes the ongoing challenge of elevated inflation, making gold particularly attractive as a protective measure. Her investment approach advocates for a balanced strategy that maintains equity exposure while incorporating defensive assets like gold, core infrastructure, and hedge funds to build portfolio resilience. This recommendation comes at a time when investors are navigating complex economic conditions and seeking ways to protect their investments against various market risks. Peters’ endorsement of gold
President Trump’s call for simultaneous tariffs and lower interest rates faces strong criticism from economists who warn this combination could backfire. Experts explain that tariffs typically increase inflation, which would force the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates. The only scenario where both high tariffs and low rates might coexist would be during an economic downturn, a situation experts warn could harm rather than help the economy. The challenge is further complicated by current full employment conditions and existing inflation concerns. Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics points out the inherent contradictions in Trump’s broader economic agenda, which includes
According to UBS Investment Bank strategist Joni Teves, gold’s current rally could extend further despite already reaching historic levels. Her analysis focuses on the crucial role of inflation dynamics, particularly emphasizing how the implementation of new tariffs could act as an inflationary catalyst. This environment, she argues, creates uniquely favorable conditions for gold. The strategist’s perspective suggests that rather than seeing current price levels as a peak, investors should consider the broader macroeconomic context, where tariff-induced inflation could continue to drive gold prices higher. This “unprecedented territory” for gold reflects a fundamental shift in market conditions that could sustain bullish
US consumer prices rose 0.5% in January, marking the largest increase in nearly 18 months. The year-over-year inflation rate reached 3.0%, exceeding economists’ expectations of 2.9%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.4% monthly and 3.3% annually. This stronger-than-expected inflation report has complicating implications for monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the central bank is “not quite there yet” in its mission to bring inflation down to 2%. The data, combined with a stable labor market, has led some economists to question whether the Fed’s easing cycle might be over, with the policy
Are tariffs, trade wars, and global volatility pushing precious metals
Gold’s rally shows no signs of slowing as the precious metal inches closer to the psychological $3,000 mark, driven by multiple supporting factors. The latest surge comes as President Trump and Vladimir Putin initiated discussions to end the Ukraine conflict, which strengthened the euro against a weakening US dollar. Despite inflation data exceeding expectations and potentially delaying rate cuts, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset remains strong. The rally has been further supported by significant purchases from central banks, particularly China, and increased investment in gold-backed ETFs.
Recent market data suggests that inflation may remain stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for several years. The five-year breakeven inflation rate currently sits at 2.6% and has consistently stayed above key moving averages since October. Market traders are predicting inflation rates around 2.9% through November, while economists expect January’s headline inflation rate to be 2.8%, with core inflation at 3.1%. Fed Chair Powell has emphasized the need for patience regarding interest rate cuts, particularly as markets assess the potential impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs. The situation is complicated by what experts describe as an “embedded inflationary mindset” among
Russians are increasingly turning to gold as a financial safe haven amid growing economic pressures. Consumer gold purchases hit 75.6 metric tons in 2024, marking a 6% increase from 2023 and a dramatic 62% jump from pre-war levels in 2021. Why? A few reasons: record-high inflation at 9.5%, the ruble’s historic lows, and international sanctions limiting investment options. The trend benefits both consumers and the Russian government, which needs outlets for its annual 300-metric-ton mining output, especially since the central bank has reduced its historically large gold purchases. The strategy has paid off for Russian buyers, with gold prices surging
Russian banks’ gold reserves plunged 46.4% in 2024, hitting their lowest level since July 2022 at 38.1 metric tons ($3.4 billion). This dichotomy reflects the country’s complex economic challenges: high inflation at 9.5%, record interest rates at 21%, and ongoing sanctions impact. Russian citizens, faced with a weakening ruble and limited international investment options due to sanctions, increased their gold purchases by 75.6 metric tons – up 62% from pre-war levels. Meanwhile, Russia’s position as the world’s second-largest gold producer remains strong, with production expected to grow through 2027, despite the significant drawdown in institutional reserves to their lowest level
Hungary’s inflation rate jumped unexpectedly to 5.5% in January, reaching its highest level in 13 months and challenging Prime Minister Orban’s earlier claims of victory over price increases. The surge, particularly evident in food prices and services, has forced the central bank to maintain the EU’s highest interest rate at 6.5% and postpone its inflation target timeline. This development threatens Orban’s political standing ahead of next year’s elections as Hungarians grapple with rising living costs.
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Gold has surged to a record $2,940 per ounce, marking its seventh peak in 2025 and an 11% gain this year following 2024’s 27% advance. President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has amplified inflation concerns, while central banks’ persistent buying – surpassing 1,000 tons annually for three straight years – demonstrates sustained institutional demand. The gold market’s enthusiasm is evident in the unusual premium for U.S. gold futures, currently around $28 over spot prices, sparking a global scramble to move physical gold to American exchanges. This has led to a significant 90% increase in COMEX
Gold reached a historic high of $2,942 per ounce as markets react to President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. While U.S. steelmaker stocks rose, global markets remained relatively stable, with investors anticipating potential deal-making and exemptions. China has responded with retaliatory duties, yet Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has shown resilience, driven by strong AI and chip sector performance. The market’s attention now turns to Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s upcoming testimony, which is expected to address the implications of these trade measures on inflation and monetary policy. Meanwhile, the dollar remains firm, and oil prices
Global gold markets are experiencing a remarkable surge, with spot gold jumping 1.4% to reach a historic high of $2,903.08 per ounce – marking its seventh record this year. The rally is primarily driven by safe-haven demand following President Trump’s announcement of new steel and aluminum tariffs, along with plans for reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, London’s gold vaults reported a 1.7% decrease in holdings due to increased U.S.-bound shipments. The precious metals rally has extended to silver, platinum, and palladium, though market participants remain watchful of upcoming U.S. inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Gold’s dramatic rise toward $3,000 is sending a critical message about the state of the economy, according to analyst Todd “Bubba” Horwitz. While expecting a near-term pullback, Horwitz forecasts gold reaching $3,200-$3,300 in 2025, citing accelerating inflation despite official claims of cooling prices. He argues that elevated prices on essential goods persist due to government revenue needs, while criticizing the Federal Reserve as a “worthless cartel” that benefits banks at the expense of average Americans. The analysis points to increasing sovereign wealth fund investment in gold as evidence of growing distrust in fiat currencies, suggesting a broader shift in global
The upcoming January jobs report presents an unusually complex picture due to multiple distorting factors. Weather events, including Los Angeles wildfires and widespread cold temperatures, will likely impact employment numbers. More significantly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual revision could reduce previous job counts by up to 818,000 through March 2024 – the largest downward adjustment since 2009, though economists expect the final figure to be closer to 600,000. Adding to the complexity, new Census Bureau population estimates, boosted by immigration surge, will affect the household survey calculations. These adjustments are expected to create artificial jumps in labor force and
The Bank of England’s latest monetary policy decision took markets by surprise with its dovish undertones, despite the expected quarter-point rate cut to 4.5%. The unanimous decision, particularly noteworthy for including two votes for a half-point reduction, marked a significant shift in sentiment. Former hawk Catherine Mann’s support for aggressive easing represented a dramatic reversal from her November stance, when she alone voted to maintain rates at 5%. The dovish turn triggered immediate market reactions, with the pound dropping sharply to $1.2365 from $1.2504 and the 2-year gilt yield falling 9 basis points. The bank’s minutes revealed concerns about financial
The Bank of England delivered its third consecutive rate cut, lowering rates to 4.5% amid growing stagflation concerns. In a surprising split decision, two of nine committee members voted for a more aggressive 0.50% cut. The move came alongside a dramatic revision to economic forecasts, with 2024 growth expectations halved to 0.75% while inflation projections were raised to 3.7% due to energy costs. The grim outlook presents a significant challenge for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, with the economy having contracted 0.1% in Q4 2023 and expected to grow just 0.1% in Q1 2025. Markets responded decisively, with the pound dropping
Gold’s unprecedented five-session rally took a momentary pause on Thursday, with spot prices steadying at $2,867.93 per ounce after reaching an all-time high of $2,882.16. The precious metal’s momentum remains strong, driven by mounting concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions and their potential impact on global economic growth. While technical indicators suggest overbought conditions with an RSI of 76, market attention is focused on Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, which could influence Fed policy decisions. The interplay between trade war concerns, inflation expectations, and interest rate trajectories continues to shape gold’s outlook, with analysts noting that employment data could significantly impact price
In the latest episode of Trader Talk, host Kenny Polcari and former Moody’s chief economist John Lonski discuss why Federal Reserve rate cuts may not materialize in 2025. They point to persistent inflation risks, continued GDP growth, and full employment as key factors that could keep rates elevated. Despite market uncertainty around tariffs, strong corporate earnings and tight credit spreads suggest underlying economic stability.
Poland’s central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5.75% for the 16th consecutive month, supported by signs of economic recovery and persistent inflation concerns. The hold comes amid encouraging economic indicators, with Poland’s GDP growth reaching 2.9% last year and showing signs of recovery from the previous quarter’s contraction. Governor Adam Glapinski has maintained a hawkish stance, citing inflation concerns as a key reason to delay discussions about monetary easing. The policy stance has had a positive effect on the zloty, pushing it to its strongest level in nearly seven months, which could help bring inflation down from 4.7%
The World Gold Council’s latest Gold Demand Trends report reveals a remarkable continuation of central banks’ gold acquisition strategy, marking 15 consecutive years of net buying. While the 2024 purchases of 1,044.6 metric tons slightly decreased from 2023’s 1,050.8 metric tons, it represents the third consecutive year above 1,000 metric tons – more than double the 2010-2021 annual average of 473 metric tons. Total gold demand reached an unprecedented 4,974.5 metric tons, driven by a 25% surge in investment demand to 1,179.5 metric tons. Looking ahead, the market faces significant influences from U.S. macroeconomic dynamics under the new Trump administration,
Federal Reserve officials Susan Collins and Raphael Bostic have signaled a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to evaluate economic impacts of both recent monetary policy changes and new White House initiatives. Following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since September, the officials want to observe the effects before making additional adjustments. The Fed must also consider Trump’s new tariffs, which Collins notes could cause short-term inflation across both final goods and intermediate production materials. While both officials expect rates to eventually decrease from the current 4.25-4.5% range, with Bostic suggesting a target of 3.0-3.5%,
Trump’s new tariffs on China, with potential duties on Mexico and Canada, could cost typical households $1,200 annually, with lower-income Americans facing disproportionate impact. According to Peterson Institute analysis, while typical households face $1,200 in annual costs, the bottom 20% of earners would lose 2.7% of their income, more than four times the 0.6% impact on the top 1%. This disparity stems from lower-income families spending more of their income on essential goods directly affected by tariffs. The timing is particularly challenging as consumer financial health shows signs of stress, with credit card minimum payments reaching record highs at 11%
Gold markets remain cautious near record levels as multiple factors influence trading sentiment. The immediate focus is on President Trump’s tariff policies and their potential inflationary impact, with three Fed officials warning of price risks and suggesting a more measured approach to interest rate cuts. While Mexico and Canada received temporary reprieves, China’s swift retaliatory tariffs have escalated tensions between the world’s largest economies. The situation has created unusual market dynamics, with global bullion banks airlifting gold from Dubai and Hong Kong to the U.S. to exploit high futures premiums. Markets are also closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic indicators, including
The U.S. bond market displayed a notable split reaction to President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on major trading partners, reflecting complex expectations about monetary policy and economic growth. Short-term Treasury yields surged, with the 2-year yield jumping 6 basis points to 4.28%, indicating expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher rates longer to combat potential tariff-driven inflation. However, longer-term yields showed minimal movement or declined slightly, with the 10-year falling 0.1 basis points to 4.54% and the 30-year dropping 2.1 basis points to 4.77%. Goldman Sachs economists suggest this flattening yield curve reflects market beliefs that while the Fed
Global markets faced severe turbulence as Trump’s tariffs on major trading partners triggered widespread selling. The dollar surged 0.9% to a two-year high while S&P 500 futures dropped 1.6%. The market impact was broad and severe, with S&P 500 futures dropping 1.6%, European automakers tumbling more than 5%, and cryptocurrencies facing sharp selloffs. The tariffs represent the most extensive protectionist action by a US president in almost a century, prompting dire warnings from major financial institutions. Goldman Sachs warns of a potential 5% US stock market decline, while RBC Capital Markets suggests losses could reach 10%. Bloomberg Economics estimates the
Gold prices are holding steady near record highs as markets grapple with opposing forces: escalating trade tensions driving safe-haven demand versus a surging dollar dampening buying interest. Trump’s announcement of tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico, 10% on China) has triggered global retaliation threats and market uncertainty, typically positive for gold. However, the dollar’s jump to two-year highs is offsetting these supportive factors, as a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers. The trade war’s impact is already visible in precious metals markets, with U.S. gold and silver prices trading above international benchmarks as traders rush to move metal before
Gold shattered all previous records this week, surging past $2,800
December’s PCE data reveals a concerning trend in U.S. inflation, with the headline rate climbing to 2.6%, its highest point in seven months and a significant deviation from September’s 3½-year low of 2.1%. The monthly increase of 0.3% was the largest since April, though core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained stable at 2.8%. This persistent inflation, combined with a robust economy and strong labor market, has led the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates, with officials suggesting rate cuts may be further delayed. The inflation outlook is complicated by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve’s
Gold’s price dynamics have undergone a fundamental transformation since 2022, breaking its long-standing correlation with real interest rates as the precious metal surges to record highs of $2,798 per ounce. This structural shift began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent Western sanctions, which prompted many central banks to reconsider their dependence on US dollar reserves. China has emerged as a key player in this new landscape, becoming the largest central bank gold buyer in 2023 and experiencing a 150% surge in gold ETF investments amid domestic deflation concerns. The changing dynamics reflect broader global tensions and financial system
January 2024 has marked a significant shift in currency markets, with the Japanese yen leading gains and set for its best January since 2018, appreciating 1.6% despite some late-month weakness. This boost comes from growing expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes, supported by Tokyo’s core inflation hitting 2.5% and positive signals from BOJ officials. Meanwhile, North American currencies face uncertainty as President Trump’s February 1 deadline for imposing 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports approaches. The Canadian dollar has touched five-year lows, while the Mexican peso is experiencing its worst weekly performance since October. The broader currency
Gold prices hit a historic high over $2,800, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions. The precious metal gained over 6% this month, driven by President Trump’s renewed threats of 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports. Market experts, including WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah, suggest this rally could maintain momentum as long as trade policy uncertainty persists. Adding to gold’s appeal, central bank buying remains a strong structural force in the market, while mixed economic signals – including slowing GDP growth but increased consumer spending – continue to support precious metals. With the Federal Reserve closely monitoring inflation and
Gold prices surged to a historic peak above $2,800 per ounce, driven by a perfect storm of market uncertainties. President Trump’s announcement of impending 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, coupled with additional threats toward China, has intensified fears of a broader trade conflict. This market anxiety, combined with concerns about US fiscal policy and potential inflationary pressures from tax cuts and immigration reform, has propelled investors toward safe-haven assets. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady and adopt a wait-and-see approach, along with anticipated inflation data, has further supported gold’s appeal. The precious metal’s fifth consecutive
The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.50%, signaling a pause in its recent rate-cutting cycle amid uncertainty over President Trump’s economic policies. This decision marks the end of three consecutive meetings with rate cuts and maintains the benchmark rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. Fed Chair Powell’s “wait and see” approach emphasizes the need for either clear signs of labor market weakness or improved inflation data before considering additional rate adjustments. The stance has drawn criticism from President Trump, who accused Powell of failing to address inflation problems. The uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and fiscal policy changes
Treasury market dropped approximately two basis points across the curve on Thursday, as investors seek direction from upcoming economic data after the Federal Reserve provided limited guidance on its policy trajectory. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.50%, marking a significant decline from last week’s 4.62%, while the dollar weakened against most G-10 currencies. This movement comes at a critical juncture, with markets anticipating slower US GDP growth data and a potential uptick in the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. The uncertainty is compounded by President Trump’s policy initiatives, leading the Fed to maintain a cautious stance. Meanwhile, the European context
The European Central Bank appears set for a significant policy shift with an anticipated rate cut that would bring its deposit rate down to 2.75%, the lowest level since early 2023. This decision comes as the eurozone navigates a complex economic landscape, marked by continuing disinflation and concerns about economic vitality. Despite these challenges, European stocks have outperformed their U.S. counterparts, with the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF gaining 6% compared to the S&P 500’s 3% increase. The economic picture shows stark contrasts across the region, with traditional powerhouses Germany and France facing stagnation while peripheral economies like Spain and Greece
Gold prices climbed to $2,778 per ounce as the dollar weakened, with traders closely watching upcoming US GDP data for further economic signals. The rise comes after Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated a pause in rate cuts, leading markets to reduce expectations to just 50 basis points of cuts this year. The precious metal’s movement reflects broader market uncertainty, particularly given potential Trump policies on tariffs and taxes that could impact inflation. Traders are now focused on forthcoming fourth-quarter GDP data for additional insights into the US economic trajectory, while other precious metals including silver, platinum, and palladium also showed
Ever wonder how the price of a classic 1957 Thunderbird compares to a modern Mustang—and what it all has to do with a simple can of soup? In this enlightening video, Mike Maloney reveals how everyday costs are a direct reflection of the dollar’s collapsing purchasing power. By taking a nostalgic trip through classic car window stickers and modern price tags, you’ll discover why inflation numbers don’t always tell the full story. And you’ll learn why a humble can of Campbell’s Soup might just be the most revealing measure of all. Key Takeaways: Discover how you can protect yourself in
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintained a steady course at the January meeting, keeping interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%. Amid political pressure and uncertainty around potential tariffs, Powell emphasized a data-driven approach, declining to comment on presidential statements or speculate about future policy changes. This cautious stance, combined with potential inflation concerns from new tariffs, suggests the Fed might forgo rate cuts entirely in 2025 – a possibility that challenges market expectations of second-half rate reductions. Powell’s “wait and see” approach, particularly regarding uncertain tariff policies and their economic effects, underscores the Fed’s focus on concrete evidence over speculation
U.S. beef prices have hit historic highs, with sirloin steak and ground beef prices up 38% and 45% respectively since 2019. While overall food inflation has moderated to 2.5%, beef prices continue to outpace general inflation, rising 4.9% year-over-year in December. This surge stems from multiple challenges facing cattle farmers, including severe drought conditions, elevated grain prices, and higher interest rates, which have led to the smallest U.S. cattle inventory since 1951. Despite these record prices, consumer demand remains robust, particularly during summer months. Industry experts warn that without a significant increase in supply or decrease in demand, prices are
The Federal Reserve’s next moves are becoming less certain as economists grapple with surprisingly resilient U.S. employment figures and sticky inflation. While the Fed has indicated plans for two rate cuts in 2025, some prominent economists, including BofA’s Aditya Bhave, are now discussing the possibility of a rate hike instead. The key trigger for such a move would be if core PCE inflation, currently at 2.8%, rises above 3%, or if inflation expectations continue to climb. Consumer concerns about future inflation have already reached their highest level since 2008, partly due to uncertainty around proposed trade policies. However, most economists
Markets showed caution as investors faced a crucial combination of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and major tech earnings reports. The S&P 500 dipped 0.2% while the Magnificent Seven tech stocks fell 1.1%, with additional pressure from concerns about AI investments and competition from Chinese rival DeepSeek. Investors remain particularly focused on potential signals about inflation from Fed Chair Powell, while tech giants face scrutiny over their AI spending returns amid slower growth projections. Today the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts, with markets highly sensitive to any hawkish signals that could drive yields higher. The situation is further
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% this week, following three consecutive rate cuts since September. While economic data shows surprising strength and sticky inflation, the Fed is taking a cautious approach as it evaluates the potential impact of President Trump’s proposed policies on trade, taxation, and regulation. Officials are maintaining flexibility in their strategy, waiting for more clarity on both inflation trends and the new administration’s economic initiatives before committing to future rate adjustments. While some officials have suggested fewer rate reductions may be needed this year, the path forward remains unclear.
Global currency markets experienced significant volatility on Tuesday as traders navigated multiple challenges, including President Trump’s expanding tariff plans and the market fallout from DeepSeek’s disruptive AI announcement. Trump’s intention to impose tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals, and steel, coupled with reports of a potential universal tariff system starting at 2.5%, has pushed the dollar higher against major currencies. This strength comes despite Monday’s tech sector selloff triggered by DeepSeek’s low-cost AI model launch. The dollar’s rise has been particularly pronounced against the euro, which fell 0.7% to $1.04155, while the yen retreated from its safe-haven gains. As the Federal
Gold’s trajectory for 2025 looks exceptionally strong, building on its impressive 27% gain in 2024 – its best performance since 2010. A recent poll of 36 market experts projects gold reaching $2,756 per ounce in 2025, reflecting growing confidence in the metal’s safe-haven appeal during Trump’s second term. While gold briefly retreated following the U.S. election and the Fed’s December meeting, which indicated fewer rate cuts for 2025, the metal has found renewed support from Trump’s tariff threats and potential trade conflicts. However, analysts note a market divergence: while high prices might dampen jewelry demand in price-sensitive Asian markets, central
Gold markets found their footing on Tuesday after experiencing their steepest drop since December 18, when investors liquidated positions to cover losses in technology stocks. The selloff was precipitated by DeepSeek’s announcement of a low-cost AI model, which challenged the dominance of established AI companies. Despite this turbulence, gold has maintained its position above $2,742 per ounce, supported by stable European equities and broader market recovery. Analysts remain bullish on gold’s prospects for 2025, citing multiple supporting factors including potential Fed rate cuts, Trump’s inflationary policies, and ongoing market uncertainty. Meanwhile, as the Federal Reserve begins its first meeting of
Treasury markets experienced a significant rally Monday as investors fled to safe-haven assets following a tech sector rout sparked by DeepSeek’s AI announcement. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 12 basis points to 4.50%, while the policy-sensitive two-year yield dropped to a one-month low of 4.17%. The market reaction reflects deeper concerns about U.S. technological leadership and potentially overvalued tech stocks, drawing parallels to the dot-com era unwind. Traditional safe-haven currencies also strengthened considerably, with the Japanese yen gaining 1.5% against the dollar and the Swiss franc rising 1%. The market turbulence comes at a crucial time, just ahead of the
Deutsche Bank’s global co-head of FX research, George Saravelos, has drawn significant parallels between the potential market impact of DeepSeek’s AI breakthrough and the dot-com crash of the 2000s. If the technology proves as disruptive as initial market reactions suggest, it could prompt a major realignment in tech valuations and capital expenditure. The analyst envisions a three-phase impact similar to the dot-com era: first, a tech-focused equity selloff that could spread to the broader economy and trigger a mild recession; second, a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance leading to a bond market rally; and finally, dollar weakness driven by unwinding
Marc Seidner, Pimco’s chief investment officer of non-traditional strategies, is challenging market consensus with his outlook on Federal Reserve policy, projecting two quarter-point rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 and possibly more thereafter. This view contrasts sharply with current market pricing, which anticipates fewer than two cuts this year due to concerns about potential Trump-era tariffs stoking inflation. Seidner, whose Dynamic Bond Fund has demonstrated exceptional performance, argues that Trump’s campaign criticism of inflationary policies makes aggressive protectionist measures unlikely. Based on this outlook, Pimco is positioning toward two-to-five-year Treasuries while avoiding longer-term bonds due to deficit concerns.
A new face of food insecurity is emerging across America as working families increasingly rely on food banks to make ends meet, despite having steady jobs and income. The surge in demand reflects the lasting impact of a 23% price increase over the past five years, with grocery costs alone jumping nearly 28%. Food banks nationwide report record-breaking numbers, with facilities like the Flagstaff Family Food Center seeing demand surge from 28,000 to over 40,000 meals per month. The crisis traces back to the massive $5 trillion government stimulus during the pandemic, which helped achieve a rapid economic recovery but
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a delicate balancing act at this week’s meeting, aiming to maintain the Fed’s independence while navigating political pressure from President Trump for immediate rate cuts. Following last year’s full percentage point rate cut to 4.25%-4.5%, the Fed plans to maintain current rates despite President Trump’s repeated calls for immediate reductions. Market analysts, including UBS and LHMeyer, suggest the Fed will likely resist political pressure, maintaining its focus on economic data and inflation targets rather than White House demands. While tensions between the Fed and the White House may increase, experts emphasize that institutional support
Sterling faced significant pressure against safe-haven currencies on Monday, particularly dropping 1% against the Japanese yen to 192.71, while managing a slight gain of 0.24% against the dollar to $1.2511. The movements reflect broader market uncertainty, triggered by a tech sector selloff and concerns over Chinese AI developments. Market attention is now shifting to a series of critical central bank meetings, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank decisions due midweek. The divergence in monetary policy between major central banks is becoming more pronounced, with the Bank of Japan maintaining a hawkish stance while other central banks consider easing
Gold approaches record $2,790 level on Friday morning amid dollar
Morgan Stanley strategists have detected a “silent plurality” of investors prepared to short the dollar, contrasting with the more vocal dollar bulls currently dominating market discourse. Their analysis suggests significant bearish pressure could emerge from multiple catalysts, including March inflation data potentially supporting Fed rate cuts, congressional fiscal negotiations, and a more moderate trade policy approach than markets expect. The bank’s notably bearish forecast predicts the US Dollar Index falling to 105 by Q1 end and 101 by year-end, significantly lower than median forecasts of 108.7 and 106.9. While the dollar has strengthened against most major currencies recently, particularly those
The Federal Reserve’s first meeting of 2025 arrives at a crucial juncture, with the S&P 500 at record highs and investors keenly watching for signals about future rate cuts. After December’s meeting dampened rate cut expectations, improved inflation data has fueled a market rebound, with the S&P 500 gaining 4% in January. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25-4.5%, market participants are particularly focused on conditions that could trigger resumed rate cuts, with futures markets pricing in roughly two cuts by year-end. The meeting’s significance is amplified by Trump’s return to office, as his calls for
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon displayed a notably relaxed attitude toward potential import tariffs under a second Trump administration, telling CNBC viewers to “get over it” if such measures prove “a little inflationary” but benefit national security. His stance comes as JPMorgan announced his 2024 compensation package of $39 million – an 8% increase from 2023’s $36 million, substantially outpacing the 2.9% inflation rate. The pay raise reflects JPMorgan’s exceptional performance, with record profits of $58.5 billion on $180.6 billion revenue and 22% return on tangible common equity. The compensation structure reveals only $1.5 million in base salary and $5
The 2024/25 ski season marks a historic moment for the gold/ski pass ratio, with one ounce of gold now buying 35.2 day passes, up 27.5% from last year’s 27.6 passes. While ski pass prices continued their above-inflation trend with a 6% increase, gold’s 35.6% surge in 2024 has made skiing remarkably affordable for gold investors. This represents the most favorable ratio in over three decades, surpassing the previous record of 29 passes per ounce in 2012/13. The current ratio shows dramatic improvement from 1998/99 when an ounce of gold purchased only 8.5 passes, reflecting gold’s average annual appreciation of 6.8%
Gold prices climbed to four-month highs, peaking over $2,770 as investors digest President Trump’s widening trade threats against China and the EU, following similar measures targeting Canada and Mexico. The precious metal’s rally reflects growing safe-haven demand amid concerns that Trump’s trade and immigration policies could reignite inflation and complicate the Fed’s monetary easing strategy. Gold’s momentum builds on last year’s record performance, which was driven by Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and central bank purchases.
The Treasury’s upcoming $20 billion 10-year TIPS auction is set to yield around 2.25%, reaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Unlike 2008’s liquidity-driven yield spike, current levels reflect robust economic conditions and fiscal outlook concerns. The previous TIPS auction in December showed weakening demand, with yields settling seven basis points above expectations. Market dynamics have evolved significantly since 2008, with the TIPS market now three times larger and supported by more long-term investors and proactive Fed intervention policies.
Turkey’s central bank delivered another 250 basis point cut to its key interest rate, lowering it to 45% while signaling more reductions ahead. The bank altered its policy framework by removing monthly inflation metrics from its decision-making criteria, focusing instead on expected and realized inflation trends. Despite inflation running at 44.4% in December, markets project a decline to 27% by year-end, though this remains above the central bank’s 21% target. The challenge lies in balancing growth support – as Turkey faces technical recession – with managing inflation expectations, which currently exceed official projections.
Mexico’s annual inflation dropped to 3.69% in early January, beating expectations and continuing its downward trend from December’s 3.99%. While core inflation remained stable at 3.72%, a 2.67% decline in produce prices offset rising energy costs. Banxico, having cut rates by 25bps for four consecutive meetings to 10%, now faces a critical decision between maintaining its cautious approach or accelerating cuts. The decision is complicated by potential US tariffs and economic headwinds, with analysts split between expectations of a 25bp or 50bp cut at the February 6 meeting. Citi’s survey shows 17 of 30 economists favoring a quarter-point reduction to
Mexico’s annual inflation dropped to 3.69% in early January, below both expectations and December’s 3.99% rate, as Banxico weighs accelerating its monetary easing cycle. While core inflation remained stable at 3.72%, a 2.67% decline in produce prices helped counter an 0.82% surge in energy costs. Despite the favorable inflation data, some central bank officials remain cautious about larger rate cuts due to uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs and Fed policy. Market expectations are split, with 17 of 30 economists forecasting a quarter-point cut to 9.75% in February, while 13 predict a half-point reduction to 9.5%.
Gold prices pulled back marginally from recent highs but maintain strong momentum, trading at $2,750/oz – just $40 shy of all-time records and on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. Investors are closely monitoring President Trump’s proposed trade tariffs targeting major trading partners, while also awaiting US jobless claims data for insights into the Federal Reserve’s rate policy. The precious metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset has been bolstered by geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchasing, and the Fed’s shift to rate cuts. Trump’s domestic policies, including tax cuts and immigration restrictions, could further support gold prices by potentially impacting
Are we on the brink of a major economic shift? In this insightful interview, Alan Hibbard sits down with macro strategist Laurent Lequeu to explore 10 bold predictions for 2025. From the Federal Reserve’s surprise rate hikes and soaring Treasury yields to geopolitical pressures pushing the Dow higher – and even the potential for new conflicts on the world stage -Laurent shares the trends he believes no investor can afford to ignore. Discover why he expects physical gold to edge out Bitcoin and why he’s sounding the alarm on long-duration bonds. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just keeping tabs
US mortgage rates experienced their first decline in six weeks, falling 7 basis points to 7.02%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest data. The decrease has helped sustain home purchase applications at their highest level in a year, with the purchase index rising 0.6%. The drop in rates mirrors falling Treasury yields, sparked by encouraging inflation data that strengthened expectations for earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts. The trend could continue as markets respond positively to President Trump’s measured approach to tariff implementation in his first days in office. However, refinancing activity showed a contrasting trend, declining 2.9% during the
Gold prices experienced a dramatic surge, jumping nearly 2% on Tuesday and extending gains to $2,750 per ounce following Donald Trump’s first day back in office. The precious metal’s rally was fueled by the new president’s signing of over 200 executive orders, particularly those related to tariffs, which markets fear could reignite inflation. This breakthrough above a triple top technical formation has positioned gold within striking distance of its all-time high of $2,790, set during the Middle East conflict in October. While the Fed had previously signaled two rate cuts for 2025, rising inflation expectations might force a policy reassessment,
At the 2025 Davos forum, JPMorgan’s top executives struck an optimistic tone about the US economic outlook, while maintaining a careful eye on inflation risks. President Daniel Pinto expressed confidence in the current economic cycle’s sustainability, though he emphasized that inflation remains a potential concern. This positive outlook was reinforced by Filippo Gori, head of JPMorgan’s banking division, who pointed to renewed market enthusiasm driven by what he described as a more favorable regulatory environment under the new administration. Their observations came amid broader discussions at Davos spanning topics from interest rates to geopolitical challenges, with participation from global leaders
US Treasury markets experienced a significant rally as President Trump’s selective approach to tariffs temporarily calmed inflation fears. The decision to postpone China-specific tariffs, combined with falling crude prices following changes to offshore drilling policies, pushed 10-year yields down by 10 basis points to 4.53%. However, the announcement of 25% tariffs targeting Mexico and Canada created new market dynamics, sending their currencies tumbling over 1% and strengthening the dollar. While some analysts, including UBS’s Mark Haefele, predict further yield declines and potential Fed rate cuts, others like ING and Nomura view this rally as temporary, citing structural pressures and ongoing
A contrarian view is emerging among bond traders that the Federal Reserve might raise rates in 2025 rather than cut them. This contrarian position, which emerged after a strong January jobs report, has maintained momentum even after favorable inflation data seemed to reinforce the Fed’s rate-cutting stance. Options markets now show approximately 25% odds of a rate hike by year-end, down slightly from 30% before recent CPI data. The unconventional bet is largely tied to expectations about incoming President Trump’s policies, particularly potential tariffs and immigration restrictions that could drive inflation higher. Former New York Fed economist Phil Suttle notably
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has raised serious concerns about the UK’s debt sustainability, warning of a potential “debt death spiral” where the government faces an increasingly difficult choice between taking on more debt to service existing obligations, cutting spending, or raising taxes. Speaking to the Financial Times, Dalio highlighted the troubling combination of rising gilt yields, which touched 4.90% (highest since 2008), alongside a weakening pound and deteriorating economic data – a pattern that typically shouldn’t occur when monetary policy is expected to ease. The billionaire hedge fund manager points to a fundamental supply-demand problem in the gilt market,
Gold prices are advancing toward their highest levels since early November, trading near $2,725 an ounce, as markets react to President Trump’s announcement of planned 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. While China has been temporarily spared from immediate tariffs, Trump’s indication that he’s still considering universal import tariffs has kept market tension high. The precious metal’s rise reflects both immediate trade war concerns and broader uncertainties about the new administration’s policies. The market response has been particularly notable in silver, which briefly spiked 1.2% to $31.525 an ounce, given Mexico’s position as the leading global producer. Beyond immediate trade
There’s a potentially major shakeup brewing in the mining industry…
The impending Trump presidency has triggered widespread anxiety in the junk debt market, particularly in Europe, where companies are racing to secure financing ahead of potential tariff implementations. The market has seen its busiest start since 2017, with 19 out of 28 loan tranches being repricings as companies seek to lock in favorable terms. Lenders are conducting extensive due diligence, exemplified by Hunter Douglas’s two-hour creditor call that focused heavily on tariff impact assessments. Investment managers are already adjusting their portfolios, shifting away from vulnerable sectors like automobiles and chemicals toward domestic industries less exposed to trade tensions. While European
Key developments in the basic materials sector show varying performance across companies and regions. Orla Mining reported disappointing Q4 gold production of 26,500 ounces, falling 15% below expectations due to 4,100 ounces remaining in refined inventory. Meanwhile, Antofagasta’s 2025 capital expenditure guidance of $3.9 billion exceeded analyst expectations by 11%. Rio Tinto delivered strong copper production, particularly at Escondida and Oyu Tolgoi mines, while reporting steady iron-ore output despite an increasing mix of lower-quality SP10 ore. The company notes global economic resilience with moderating inflation, though challenges persist from geopolitical tensions, labor shortages, and China’s property market crisis, even as
Gold futures are up, rising $33.90 to settle at $2,746.40, achieving the third-highest close in history and extending gains for a third straight session. The precious metal has shown consistent momentum, advancing in seven of the past eight sessions and accumulating a three-day gain of 2.73%. This rally has been fueled by moderating U.S. core inflation data and growing expectations for looser Federal Reserve monetary policy in 2025. Since its 52-week low in February 2024, gold has surged nearly 38%, though it remains just 1.51% below its record high of $2,788.50 set in October 2024. While geopolitical tensions have historically
Gold prices reached their highest level since December 12, climbing to $2,716.91 per ounce amid a confluence of favorable economic indicators. The surge was primarily fueled by weakening Treasury yields following unexpectedly high U.S. jobless claims of 217,000, exceeding forecasts of 210,000. This labor market softening, combined with December’s modest 0.2% core inflation increase, has strengthened market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025. The precious metal’s appeal was further enhanced by ongoing geopolitical tensions in Gaza, reinforcing gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty.
Federal Reserve policymakers are projecting a more measured pace of interest rate cuts for 2025, marking a shift from the aggressive easing seen in 2024 when rates were reduced by a full percentage point. This conservative outlook is shaped by several key factors: slower-than-desired progress in bringing inflation down to the 2% target, continued strength in the labor market, and significant uncertainty about the economic implications of Donald Trump’s second-term policies. The Fed’s internal debate is characterized by a clear divide between hawks, who prioritize inflation concerns and advocate for a more cautious approach to rate cuts, and doves, who
Gold has climbed to its highest level in a month, trading above $2,700 an ounce, driven by a significant shift in market expectations following surprisingly moderate U.S. core inflation data. The consumer price index, excluding food and energy, rose just 0.2% after four consecutive months of 0.3% increases, suggesting the Fed may have more flexibility to cut rates sooner than previously anticipated. This development has caused a notable market reaction, with Treasury yields and the dollar declining, enhancing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Swap traders have adjusted their expectations, now fully pricing in a rate cut by July –
A new analysis reveals U.S. stocks have reached their most expensive level in history when measured against workers’ purchasing power. According to Leuthold Group’s research, manufacturing workers must now work more than 200 hours to afford one unit of the S&P 500, dramatically exceeding the historical median of 33 hours in data going back to 1947. This extreme valuation coincides with other concerning metrics – the S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio stands at 21.4 times expected 2025 earnings, and its price-to-sales ratio is at levels not seen since the aftermath of the dot-com bubble. While the market has shown resilience,
December 2024 saw U.S. retail sales increase by 0.4%, reflecting strong consumer spending across multiple sectors, particularly in automobiles (0.7%), furniture (2.3%), and sporting goods (2.6%). This growth, though moderating from November’s 0.8%, occurred against a backdrop of positive economic indicators, including a low 4.1% unemployment rate and rising wages. The retail landscape reveals a complex picture where overall sales have risen 3.9% year-over-year, with goods inflation at just 0.3%. However, the market shows a clear bifurcation: wealthy consumers, benefiting from appreciating assets, continue robust spending and home improvements, while lower-income households remain constrained by elevated prices.
Gold has climbed to its highest level in over a month, trading at $2,719.49 per ounce, as multiple economic indicators point toward potential monetary policy easing. This rally was fueled by a confluence of factors: weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, including higher jobless claims of 217,000 versus the forecast 210,000, and December’s core inflation increase of just 0.2% after four consecutive months of 0.3% gains. These developments have significantly influenced market expectations, with traders now anticipating 37 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, up from 31 basis points before the inflation data. The precious metal’s appeal is further
The latest inflation data showed U.S. consumer prices increased marginally above expectations in December, with the CPI rising 0.4% monthly and 2.9% annually, driven partly by higher energy costs. The figures, while slightly exceeding economists’ forecasts of a 0.3% monthly gain, appear to support the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts for 2024. Markets interpreted the data optimistically, with S&P 500 futures surging 1.5%, the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 12.1 basis points to 4.667%, and the dollar index declining 0.4% to 108.76, suggesting investors view the inflation trajectory as manageable within the Fed’s policy framework.
Global markets advanced cautiously on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. CPI data that could significantly impact monetary policy decisions. Wall Street futures rose 0.2-0.3%, while European markets gained strength, particularly in UK homebuilders following surprisingly cool British inflation data. The bond market saw some respite from recent selling pressure, with Treasury and German Bund yields retreating. BlackRock’s record $11.6 trillion in assets under management highlighted strong financial sector performance, while market expectations for Fed rate cuts have notably decreased, with traders now pricing in only 31.4 basis points of easing compared to 45 basis points a week ago. JPMorgan analysts
Gold prices gained momentum as both the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields retreated, with spot prices rising 0.4% to $2,687.59 per ounce and futures climbing over 1% to $2,710.00. Markets are particularly focused on upcoming CPI data, expected to show annual inflation increasing to 2.9% from November’s 2.7%. According to Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, market uncertainty is heightened by both the pending inflation data and political considerations, including Trump’s proposed import tariffs that could impact inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. Despite Tuesday’s moderate PPI increase, analysts suggest rate cuts may not materialize until the second half
Gold futures advanced 1.1% to $2,711.90 per troy ounce, building on momentum from Tuesday’s soft PPI data and benefiting from dollar weakness. The December CPI reading of 2.9%, up from November’s 2.7%, aligned with market expectations and moderately strengthened the case for Federal Reserve monetary easing. While this development enhanced the appeal of non-interest-bearing bullion, StoneX analysts maintain a cautious near-term outlook, citing persistent bond yields as a limiting factor. However, they remain bullish on gold’s longer-term prospects, forecasting a rise to $3,000 per ounce later in 2024.
US markets surged across the board following December’s inflation report, which showed core CPI easing to 0.2% monthly growth after four consecutive months at 0.3%. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow all climbed approximately 1.5%, while Treasury yields tumbled and the dollar weakened against major currencies. While market sentiment improved significantly, with swap traders now pricing in a July rate cut, analysts remain cautious. Goldman Sachs Asset Management notes that while the data strengthens the case for eventual cuts, the strong labor market gives the Fed room to be patient. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management suggests that while a January
The latest inflation data showed a welcome moderation in core consumer prices, with December’s 0.2% increase marking the first slowdown in six months. Key factors contributing to the cooler reading included cheaper hotel stays, modest rent increases, and slower growth in medical care service costs. However, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious, requiring sustained evidence of inflation progress before adjusting their policy stance. The combination of this data with last week’s robust jobs report suggests the Fed will maintain current rates at their January meeting, with markets pushing back expectations for rate cuts. BMO Capital Markets notes that potential tariff implementations
December’s inflation data showed encouraging signs of moderation, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing 0.2% monthly and 3.2% annually, marking the first deceleration since July. While headline inflation met expectations at 2.9% annually, the shelter index showed improvement, rising 4.6% annually – its smallest increase since January 2022. However, certain categories remained problematic, with used car prices rising 1.2%, energy costs jumping 2.6% monthly, and egg prices surging 3.2%. Markets welcomed the data, with Treasury yields falling below 4.7%, though concerns linger about potential inflationary pressures from Trump’s proposed policies, including tariffs and tax cuts, as his inauguration
A sharp selloff in the U.S. bond market has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield close to 5%, a psychologically significant threshold that’s causing widespread concern among investors. According to DataTrek Research, this level is particularly unsettling because it represents the highest yield an entire generation of investors has experienced, with the last sustained period above 5% occurring just before the 2007 financial crisis. While today’s economic conditions differ significantly, with a more stable banking system but higher federal debt levels, the market remains highly sensitive to this benchmark. The yield surge follows surprisingly strong economic data that has forced investors
US markets are poised for a rebound Tuesday as two key developments eased inflation concerns. The Producer Price Index rose less than expected at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% annually, providing welcome news ahead of Wednesday’s crucial consumer inflation report. Adding to the positive sentiment, reports emerged that the incoming Trump administration might implement tariff increases gradually rather than all at once to minimize inflationary impact. This double dose of encouraging news sparked gains across major indices, with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.7%. The market response included a retreat in both the dollar and Treasury yields,
December’s wholesale inflation data revealed a surprising slowdown, with the Producer Price Index rising only 0.2% monthly, falling short of economists’ expectations of 0.4%. This moderation was largely attributed to a 0.1% decline in food prices, including a significant 15% drop in vegetable costs, along with unchanged services prices. While energy costs rose 3.5%, the core PPI measure, excluding food and energy, remained flat from November. The report gains particular significance ahead of the consumer price index release and amid recent increases in commodity prices, including oil and agricultural products. Despite the modest inflation reading, the combination of price pressures
December’s Producer Price Index revealed encouraging signs for inflation control, with wholesale prices rising less than anticipated at 3.3% annually and 0.2% monthly, falling below economist projections of 3.5% and 0.4% respectively. While core prices, excluding volatile food and energy components, edged up to 3.5% year-over-year from November’s 3.4%, they remained below the expected 3.8% increase. The data arrives at a crucial moment as markets assess the Federal Reserve’s potential rate decisions for 2024, with current projections showing limited likelihood of rate cuts until at least mid-year. This report, coupled with upcoming CPI data, will be pivotal in shaping expectations
Gold prices are showing strength, rising 0.3% to $2,668.79 per ounce, driven by a combination of a weakening dollar and strategic responses to the incoming Trump administration’s trade policies. The market’s positive reaction stems from reports suggesting a gradual approach to implementing new tariffs, which could help manage inflationary pressures. This development has led to declining Treasury yields and a retreat in the dollar from its two-year high, making gold more attractive to international buyers. Market attention is now focused on crucial economic indicators, including PPI and CPI data, with economists projecting annual inflation to reach 2.9%, up from November’s
The dollar’s strength continues to dominate currency markets, approaching its highest levels in more than two years as investors reassess Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Following strong jobs data, markets have significantly scaled back predictions for monetary easing in 2024, now anticipating only 28 basis points of cuts compared to the Fed’s December projection of 50 basis points. The euro, while slightly up at $1.0257, has already lost over 6% in 2024 due to monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB. The currency market’s attention is split between upcoming U.S. inflation data (PPI and CPI) and the potential impact
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure over Britain’s fiscal stability as markets experience their most severe selloff since 2008, pushing government borrowing costs to crisis levels. Addressing Parliament, Reeves insisted the government would meet its fiscal rules “at all times,” despite the UK paying record rates to sell 30-year inflation-linked debt and gilt yields reaching their highest levels since the financial crisis. The market turbulence has intensified scrutiny of the Treasury’s plans, with reports suggesting potential public spending cuts to address the fiscal gap. The situation has become politically charged, with Conservative opposition criticizing Reeves’s decision to visit China
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid have introduced a cautionary note to the rate cut narrative, suggesting that the Fed’s benchmark rate may already be approaching its neutral level following 100 basis points in cuts since September. Their position marks a notable contrast to other Fed officials, including Chairman Powell and Governor Waller, who maintain that rates are still restrictive enough to slow economic growth. Bowman specifically highlighted concerns about strong economic growth and a 20% rise in the stock market over the past year, warning that inflation progress could stall. Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zentner
Federal Reserve officials Michelle Bowman and Jeff Schmid have signaled a cautious stance on future rate cuts, suggesting that the benchmark rate may already be close to its “neutral” target following 100 basis points of reductions since September. Their position contrasts with other Fed officials, including Chairman Powell and Governor Waller, who maintain that rates remain restrictive. Bowman expressed particular concern about strong economic growth and a 20% rise in the stock market, warning of potential inflation risks. The differing views among Fed officials point to a potentially widening divide within the committee in 2025, with clarity on President-elect Trump’s
Gold prices dropped 0.5% to $2,677.13 per ounce following strong U.S. jobs data that dampened expectations for early Fed rate cuts. While a strengthening dollar pressured gold prices, ongoing uncertainty around President-elect Trump’s proposed trade policies and inflation concerns continued to provide underlying support for the precious metal.
The US dollar reached its highest level in over two years, driven by Friday’s unexpectedly strong employment report that showed accelerating job growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. This economic strength has dramatically shifted market expectations, with traders now questioning whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates at all in 2025, down from previous expectations of two quarter-point cuts. The dollar’s surge is creating widespread pressure on global currencies, particularly affecting the euro, which dropped to $1.0177, and the British pound, which fell to $1.21. The situation could intensify depending on Wednesday’s US inflation data and President-elect Trump’s upcoming policies
US Treasury yields surged to multi-month highs following strong December employment data, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.80% and the 30-year approaching 5%. The selloff, driven by persistent inflation concerns and growing government debt, has led markets to price in fewer rate cuts for 2025 and is causing ripple effects across global markets, strengthening the dollar to a two-year high.
Global bond markets are in turmoil following stronger-than-expected US jobs data, forcing a worldwide repricing of interest rate expectations. While the US economy’s strength might justify higher rates, countries like the UK face a more challenging scenario, combining mediocre growth with inflation concerns and currency weakness. The Bank of England is now expected to deliver fewer rate cuts in 2025 than previously anticipated, with markets predicting just two quarter-point cuts from the current 4.75%. The situation is particularly concerning for the UK as oil prices rise above $80 per barrel while sterling weakens, threatening to push inflation above 3% by
A historically rare phenomenon is unsettling investors as the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed by about the same magnitude as the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts, something that’s happened only twice since the early 1980s. The benchmark yield has surged from 3.6% to 4.77% since mid-September, nearly matching the Fed’s full percentage point in rate cuts. This unusual movement breaks from the typical pattern where long-term rates fall during Fed easing cycles. Market experts attribute this divergence to multiple factors, including persistent inflation concerns, strong economic data, and uncertainty around President-elect Trump’s policies. The situation echoes elements of the 1981
Gold’s impressive 27% rally in 2024 came with a surprising twist: gold ETFs were seeing outflows, bucking a historical trend. Typically, every major gold bull market of the past two decades has been accompanied by substantial ETF inflows — averaging about 30 tons per month during the rallies of 2005-2007, 2009-2012, and 2019-2020. State Street Global Advisors sees this market anomaly as a potential springboard. They predict that if ETF outflows since late 2020 reverse course to even moderate inflows in 2025, the resulting demand shock could push gold to new heights. “An ETF re-stocking cycle could be very bullish
The market’s relationship with Treasury yields has shifted dramatically from last year’s optimistic outlook to current anxiety as the 10-year yield approaches 4.7%. This change is fueled by multiple factors: recent data showing inflation pressures in the services sector, diminishing expectations for Fed rate cuts, and concerns about incoming President Trump’s potentially inflationary fiscal policies. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer warns that inflation might not be fully contained, potentially rising to 3.5-4%, a scenario that could prevent Fed rate cuts and isn’t currently priced into markets. While some experts, like State Street’s Michael Arone, argue that corporate earnings should be the focus
Brazil’s inflation challenge persisted through the end of 2024, with annual prices rising 4.83%, breaching the central bank’s 4.5% tolerance ceiling. While December showed a modest monthly increase of 0.52%, the underlying data reveals persistent inflationary pressures across most sectors. New central bank chief Gabriel Galipolo faces immediate challenges, as a combination of robust economic growth, fiscal uncertainties, and currency weakness threatens price stability. Despite some relief from lower housing costs, broad-based price increases in food, transportation, and services suggest mounting inflationary pressures. The situation has prompted plans for aggressive monetary tightening, with interest rates expected to reach 14.25% by
The Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes show a complex policy landscape, with officials increasingly worried about inflation risks while maintaining their easing bias. Despite cutting rates for the third consecutive time to 4.25%-4.5%, there was notable discussion about inflation risks, particularly regarding incoming President Trump’s proposed trade and immigration policies. While some officials advocated for holding rates steady, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of no cut, the committee remained open to further easing if inflation moderates and labor markets remain strong. This stance contrasts with external views, such as monetary policy expert Adam Posen’s prediction that
In his first public remarks since the Fed’s last rate cut, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker outlined a cautiously optimistic but uncertain monetary policy outlook. While confirming his expectation for continued rate cuts, he emphasized that timing and pace will be strictly data-dependent given the “very unsettled times.” Harker painted a mixed economic picture: strong macroeconomic fundamentals and progress on inflation, but slower-than-desired movement toward the 2% target and emerging concerns about financial stress among lower-income workers. His stance aligns with the Fed’s recent more conservative approach to rate cuts for 2025, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns despite recent progress.
The unusual rise in Treasury yields is sparking debate among economic experts, with Paul Krugman proposing an “insanity premium” linked to Trump’s policy pronouncements. The incoming administration’s agenda of high tariffs, tax cuts, and mass deportations has economists nearly unanimous in predicting inflationary pressures, potentially forcing the Fed to pause or reverse rate cuts. This uncertainty is reflected in December’s Fed minutes, where officials noted increased inflation risks partly due to potential policy changes. Meanwhile, the market response has been mixed – while yields have climbed significantly since September, some analysts like Nationwide’s Mark Hackett suggest the market reaction might
The Treasury market found some relief after a significant selloff that had rippled through global markets, with yields retreating across the curve as investors turn their attention to Friday’s employment data. The timing is particularly notable as US markets prepare to close for former President Carter’s memorial. Fed officials, including Philadelphia’s Patrick Harker and Boston’s Susan Collins, are maintaining a cautious stance on rate cuts, suggesting a slower pace than previously anticipated due to persistent economic strength. Adding complexity to the monetary policy outlook is the Fed’s increased focus on “market-based” inflation measures, which show more moderate price pressures at
Boston Fed President Susan Collins is signaling a more conservative stance on monetary policy, emphasizing the need for patience and gradual movement on future rate cuts despite progress on inflation. While acknowledging inflation’s significant decline from 2022 peaks, Collins notes increasing concerns about its persistence and the complex economic landscape ahead. Her remarks come as the Fed navigates between maintaining price stability and preserving labor market health, with additional uncertainty stemming from potential policy changes under the incoming administration. Collins’s position aligns with broader Fed projections but emphasizes flexibility in response to evolving economic conditions.
U.S. Treasury markets are flashing warning signals as yields surge across the curve, with the 10-year term premium exceeding 50 basis points for the first time in a decade. This shift reflects deepening investor concerns about long-term inflation, growing debt supply, and uncertainty around future monetary policy. Recent economic indicators, including accelerating service sector activity and stronger-than-expected job openings, have dampened expectations for Fed rate cuts, with markets now pricing in fewer cuts for 2024. The bond market tension has global implications, lifting borrowing costs worldwide, strengthening the dollar, and contributing to market volatility as investors grapple with the uncertain
The Federal Reserve faces a critical dilemma as bond market tensions rise: it must choose between addressing mounting inflation fears in the Treasury market or accommodating Trump’s calls for lower interest rates. With the 10-year term premium reaching its highest level since 2014 and long-term yields rising despite recent rate cuts, the Fed appears likely to prioritize inflation control over presidential preferences, potentially setting up conflicts with the incoming administration.
The UK’s financial markets are flashing serious warning signals, with gilt yields reaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis and the pound dropping significantly against the dollar. This unusual combination of rising yields and falling currency typically indicates serious concerns about a country’s fiscal health. While most developed economies are seeing higher bond yields due to inflation concerns, the UK’s situation is uniquely concerning because it’s occurring amid economic stagnation rather than growth. With £297 billion in planned bond sales and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 99.8%, the UK’s predicament serves as a canary in the coal mine for
The December Fed minutes show a central bank wrestling with competing pressures: rising inflation concerns, particularly from potential Trump administration policies, balanced against a commitment to monetary easing. While “almost all” officials noted increased inflation risks, this wasn’t enough to put rate hikes on the table. Instead, they opted for a more nuanced approach, delivering a third consecutive rate cut while leaving room to slow the pace of future cuts if needed. The decision wasn’t unanimous, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of holding rates until inflation moves closer to the 2% target. This careful balancing act
Gold and silver investors in New Jersey just got a major win: zero sales tax on precious metals. The bipartisan legislation, which took effect January 1st, eliminates all sales tax on gold, silver, and precious metals purchases, positioning New Jersey among the most competitive states for metals trading. As more states recognize the importance of precious metals investment, this could mark the beginning of a broader shift in state tax policies… 📈 Alan Hibbard: Gold and Bitcoin Set for ‘Explosive’ 2025 In a compelling NYSE TV interview this week, Alan Hibbard addressed Powell’s recent Bitcoin comments and highlighted a critical
Robert Kiyosaki urges investors to buy silver immediately, even with limited funds, citing an imminent banking crisis. He predicts silver prices could double or triple soon. Kiyosaki, along with other financial experts, sees silver as a hedge against inflation and economic instability. The metal’s industrial applications, particularly in electronics and healthcare, contribute to its growing demand and potential value increase.
Gold prices remain stable as investors analyze the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts following lower-than-expected inflation data. The precious metal’s year-long rally, driven by monetary easing and safe-haven demand, has slowed recently due to a stronger dollar.
Gold prices rose Friday but remained on track for a weekly decline of 1-2%, pressured by the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish stance on interest rates. The Fed’s latest projections showed fewer rate cuts planned through 2025 than previously expected, with officials now forecasting just two quarter-point cuts instead of the four cuts suggested in September. While markets digest the Fed’s hawkish shift, another source of uncertainty emerges from Washington… US Government Faces Shutdown Over Funding Bill Another government shutdown looms as House lawmakers rejected a stopgap funding measure Thursday evening, voting 174-235 against the bill despite former President Trump’s endorsement.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, showed a slight deceleration in November 2024. The core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% month-over-month, lower than October’s 0.3% increase and below economists’ expectations of 0.2%. On an annual basis, core PCE remained steady at 2.8%, while overall PCE increased to 2.4% from 2.3% in October, both figures coming in below forecasts. This data suggests progress in the Fed’s battle against inflation, though price increases remain above the central bank’s 2% target.
Gold and silver have taken center stage in 2024, with prices skyrocketing and demand hitting unprecedented levels. In this insightful discussion, Alan Hibbard of GoldSilver.com and Kurt Nelson of SummerHaven Investment Management share why 2025 might be a pivotal year for precious metals. Highlights: Gold’s safe-haven appeal amidst inflation and global volatility Silver demand outstripping supply for five consecutive years Central banks stocking up on gold reserves ($40 billion in 2024 alone!) Bold price predictions: Gold above $3,000, Silver at $40 by 2025 Why this could be your last chance to buy gold under $3,000 Whether you’re an investor or
The Hunt Brothers contributed to silver’s rise, but were only
Amidst the pitched arguments about inflation (though almost nobody argues
In this insightful discussion, we explore the shifting dynamics of the traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) and why it may no longer be the optimal strategy for today’s investors. Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard dive deep into historical data, revealing periods of lost returns and the pitfalls of relying on stocks and bonds alone. With inflation rising and markets fluctuating, now is the time to rethink your investment strategy. Discover why alternative assets like gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies could provide better diversification and protect your wealth in these uncertain times. Don’t miss this crucial conversation on how to
Gold has shattered the $2,700 per ounce barrier, setting a new all-time high. In recent weeks, we’ve explored the perfect storm driving this gold surge: Accelerating interest rate drops across Western nations and China Emerging market central banks embarking on a gold-buying spree Investors seeking safe havens amidst global uncertainties However, gold isn’t the only asset reaching for the stars. However, gold isn’t alone in its ascent. Stocks are touching record highs, cryptocurrencies markets showing renewed vigor, and as we’ll see, many sectors of consumer spending defying expectations. In this era of seemingly across-the-board growth, a crucial question emerges: Is
Today, would you hope to find 148-year-old treasure in actual
Silver is up roughly 33% year to date, driven by
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US Dollar losing an enormous amount of purchasing power since
If you feel a little daunted by the way gold
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Investing in silver bullion is a way to protect your
It’s natural and even prudent for an investor to wonder
It’s natural and even prudent for an investor to wonder
To help you stay ahead of potential trouble in the
In this resource, we provide important information for anyone looking
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It’s tempting to answer this question by simply saying: any.
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Many investors hold gold and silver to hedge against various
Many people think the Hunt Brothers were responsible for manipulating
Gold has been a safe haven for literally thousands of years. But how effective is it as a “hedge”? A hedge is an asset that tends to rise when others fall. For example, an investor holding common stocks might find it advantageous to hold some gold too, since it has historically been strong during the worst stock market crashes. But in the big picture, does it really pay to always have some gold in one’s portfolio? History provides some clear answers. We analyzed several historical scenarios to see how a theoretical portfolio performed with various amounts of gold (including zero). The
The spot price of gold is based on the price of one troy ounce of gold on international exchanges. Gold spot prices refer to the “bid” price you see listed—which is the price most recently quoted in the market that buyers are willing to purchase at. This is usually lower than the “ask” price sellers are currently seeking. The spot price is based on trading activity in the futures markets. It is an international standard for the spot price of gold to be quoted in US dollars. In the US, the COMEX is the primary exchange where gold is traded
Here’s How Much Gold and Silver You Need for the Crises Most of you reading this are already convinced of the need to own gold and silver. But as you continue to accumulate, a question naturally arises: how much do you need? Imagine the sick feeling in your gut if we get to the next financial crisis and you suddenly realize you didn’t buy enough bullion to get through it. For this reason alone, it’s worth thinking about how many ounces you might need. More and more investors are recognizing this, and we receive questions about it. The wording varies,
With everything going on in the world right now, do you worry about the potential for a stock market crash? Whether one materializes or not, this is a good time to consider how long it might take to recover from it, in real terms. That’s an important consideration, since the argument “the market always goes up over time” overlooks the corroding effects of inflation and the reality of declining purchasing power, especially when the recovery is long and inflation is high. Let’s dive into how long it really takes to recover from a big stock market crash, along with how gold
Interested in the gold market, but not sure how to get started or what any of it means? Here’s a quick overview of the gold market to enable you to begin investing in gold. If you have a specific question, these quick links will help you get to your topic faster. Introduction to the Gold Market? History of the Gold Market Gold and Currency Global Gold Market Types of Gold Bullion Gold Price Buying Gold What Affects the Gold Market? Investing in Gold Benefits of Owning Gold Selling Gold – When To Sell What Is the Gold Market? The gold
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His hedge fund returned a staggering 4,200% over a 7-year
Silver delivered a historic 120% surge in 2025, breaking long-standing
Gold’s performance in 2025 wasn’t just strong — it was historic. That run continued into 2026. On January 28, 2026, gold reached an all-time high of $5,589.38 per ounce — before pulling back sharply through Q2 2026, a decline of approximately 14% as Iran-related inflation fears pushed the Federal Reserve toward a more hawkish stance. As of August 2026, gold trades near $4,339. Gold delivered a 64% gain in 2025, surging past $4,400 per ounce and crushing Wall Street expectations. It then pushed to a fresh all-time high of $5,589.38 on January 28, 2026 — before a 14% pullback through
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Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilverThe data is in: based on
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Published on Aug 25, 2015 Renowned gold expert Jim Sinclair stands by his prediction last year of an eventual gold price of $50,000 per ounce. Sinclair explains, “You have to understand we are going into unprecedented deflation, and it’s the reaction of central banks around the world to the concept of deflation that brings about hyperinflation. . . . There will be debt monetization of all kinds of debt to maintain some sort of equilibrium. The price of gold is going to go to a level that is going to surprise everybody. I was told that this is a rally
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Outstanding quality and customer service. I first discovered Mike Maloney through his “Secrets of Money” video series. It was an excellent precious metals education. I was a financial advisor and it really helped me learn more about wealth protection. I used this knowledge to help protect my clients retirements. I purchase my precious metals through goldsilver.com. It is easy, fast and convenient. I also invested my IRA’s and utilize their excellent storage options. Bottom line, Mike and his team have earned my trust. I continue to invest in wealth protection and my own education. I give back and help others see the opportunities to invest in precious metals. Thank you.
