Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News
Today’s gold and silver market news, curated from the best of GoldSilver's team and around the web. Everything precious metals investors need to know including updates on big price swings, macro analysis, and breaking stories. Check back often or subscribe to get the highlights in your inbox. Monitor live spot prices on our charts page.
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TOP NEWSGold's STEALTH Institutional Rally...What Happens When the Public Arrives?
Join us in this thoughtful discussion with investment expert Rick Rule, who sheds light on the understated yet steady increase in gold prices
The REAL Reason the South Lost the Civil War
As the Union and Confederate armies faced off during the Civil War, an equally fierce economic battle waged behind the scenes, ultimately deciding the war's fate.
READ MOREU.S. Economic Momentum Slows, S&P Surveys Indicate
April saw the U.S. economy lose steam, according to recent S&P surveys, with businesses experiencing a downturn in new orders and a cutback in employment—the first since the pandemic began. The manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped to a four-month low of 49.9, slipping below the growth threshold from 51.9 in March. Similarly, the services PMI decreased to 50.9 from 51.7, marking a five-month low.
READ MOREU.S. Business Activity Slows to Four-Month Low; Mixed Inflation Signals Emerge
In April, U.S. business activity slowed to its lowest level in four months, driven by diminished demand. Concurrently, inflation indicators presented a mixed view: although the rate of inflation showed slight easing, input prices still surged, hinting at potential future relief if the economy continues to decelerate. This trend is particularly relevant as the Federal Reserve monitors for signs of slowing economic activity that might further reduce inflation pressures. S&P Global reported on Tuesday that its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index declined to 50.9 from 52.1 in March. A reading above 50 still signifies expansion, indicating continued growth in the private sector despite the slowdown.
READ MOREGoldman Sachs Cautiously Optimistic About Stock Market Rally Despite Emerging Risks
Despite recent downturns in the U.S. stock market, optimism remains high among investors, particularly regarding corporate earnings. According to a Bloomberg survey of 409 participants, nearly two-thirds express confidence that forthcoming corporate results will bolster the S&P 500 index—an optimism level not seen since the question was first posed in October 2022. Goldman Sachs strategists Dominic Wilson and Kamakshya Trivedi have described the situation as "paradise postponed," acknowledging emerging near-term risks to stocks, which they believe are concerning but not disastrous. Throughout the year, they have maintained a relatively positive outlook on the impact of the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates this year.
READ MOREUS Business Activity Slows, Marking Weakest Growth in Four Months
In April, US business activity experienced its slowest expansion of the year, triggered by a significant pullback in demand. This slowdown resulted in the first employment decline seen since 2020. The S&P Global flash composite index, which tracks output at manufacturers and service providers, fell 1.2 points to 50.9—the most substantial drop since August. While readings above 50 still denote expansion, the downturn is notable. Moreover, the composite measure of orders indicated the first contraction in six months, signaling potential challenges ahead for the US economy.
READ MOREJPMorgan Cautions Investors: Stock Market Troubles Not Over Yet
JPMorgan suggests that the recent stock market rebound does not signal the end of a sell-off, with the potential for further declines. The market outlook is dimmed by persistent inflation, a potential shift from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts to a realization of sustained higher rates, and stock valuations still above historical averages. Chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic indicates that while stock prices may stabilize in the short term due to earnings reports, the overarching market sentiment is one of caution. Kolanovic points to overconfidence in equity valuations, unyielding inflation, adjustments in Federal Reserve policies, and potentially too optimistic profit projections as reasons for his concern about the market's future.
READ MOREZeroHedge: Speculative Froth Departing Gold as China Tightens Trading Conditions
ZeroHedge reports a shift in the gold market as China implements stricter trading regulations, indicating a departure of speculative trading interest. While the consistent physical demand from central banks and Chinese retail buyers offers a stable base for gold prices due to their less price-sensitive nature, speculative traders—who are indifferent to the commodity and focus solely on profit—are exiting. This speculative group, likened to overexcited children, is known for rapid and volatile trading behaviors driven by trends rather than fundamentals.
READ MOREGold Futures Fall as Easing Geopolitical Strains Diminish Safe-Haven Appeal
Gold futures saw a notable decline to their lowest value since early April, with June contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropping 1.4% to $2,313.5 per troy ounce. This drop reflects eased tensions in the Middle East, diminishing the metal's appeal as a safe haven. From an all-time high of $2,448.8 on April 12, gold has retreated by 2.9% over the past week but is still up 12.5% over three months. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank regards this downturn as a healthy correction that could test the market's confidence in gold's upward momentum, suggesting the upcoming price movements will reveal the true demand for gold amidst potential sell-offs by hedge funds.
READ MOREU.S. Oil Falls as Fears of Iran-Israel Conflict Recede, Trading Below $81
U.S. crude oil prices dropped below $81 per barrel, a dip not seen since March, signaling the market's limited concern over potential new sanctions on Iranian oil. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has fallen beneath its 50-day moving average for the first time in several months, down from the year's high of $87.62. This decrease in price reflects the easing of geopolitical tensions as Iran and Israel move away from the prospect of a broader conflict, despite the recent exchange of strikes.
READ MOREDollar Soars to 34-Year High Against Yen Amid U.S. Rate Hike Expectations
The U.S. dollar reached a 34-year high against the Japanese yen, with the exchange rate peaking at 154.85 yen, influenced by the Federal Reserve's indication of maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period. The currency's rise comes as market participants anticipate potential intervention from Japan to strengthen the yen, which has continually hit record lows against the dollar this year.
READ MOREHistoric $72 Million Coin Auction Set a Century After Magnate's Will
The heirs of Danish businessman Lars Emil Bruun are set to sell a rare coin collection valued at US$72 million, a century after its initial inheritance due to the stipulations of Bruun's will. Despite attempts to contest the will, the collection of 20,000 pieces was preserved intact as per Bruun's wishes. The sale, to be conducted over several years by Stack’s Bowers, an auction house specializing in coins, is scheduled to begin this fall. The revelation of this vast and untouched collection has astonished numismatic experts, including Vicken Yegparian of Stack's Bowers.
READ MOREGold Prices Plunge as Middle East Tensions Ease and Fed Maintains Higher Rates
Gold prices continued to fall following the biggest single-day slump in nearly two years, influenced by easing Middle East tensions and indications that the Federal Reserve might maintain higher interest rates for longer. After reaching record levels earlier this month, gold dipped below $2,300 an ounce, dropping 2.7% on Monday. This decline was driven by reduced geopolitical risk as Iran downplayed the significance of recent Israeli strikes, suggesting there might be no further escalation. Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst at ITC Markets, noted that the fall could also be attributed to some tactical short-selling amid the recent surge in gold prices.
READ MORERay Dalio Advocates for Gold in the Face of Looming Debt and Inflation Threats
Ray Dalio, a prominent billionaire investor and hedge fund founder, recommends owning gold as a safeguard against potential debt and inflation crises. Highlighting the escalating global debt levels, Dalio has repeatedly voiced concerns about a possible U.S. debt crisis, which he believes could thrust the economy into a balance sheet recession — a situation where deleveraging and declining asset prices could impede economic growth.
READ MOREWorld Gold Council: Gold ETFs, Holdings and Flows
The World Gold Council's comprehensive data set covers more than 100 physically-backed gold ETFs and similar products worldwide, providing regional and fund-specific analysis of demand in tonnes and flows in USD over different time periods.
READ MOREFed's Outdated Forecasting Challenged as Economy Defies Predictions
The Federal Reserve's traditional forecasting approach is facing criticism for its inadequacy in reflecting the dynamic economic environment, particularly in the post-pandemic period. While the forecasts have often been inaccurate, the real concern lies in the method's focus on specific projections—like the anticipated three interest rate cuts in 2024—which now seem outdated due to unexpected inflationary pressures. This issue underscores the need for a more flexible and comprehensive forecasting model that can better accommodate the range of potential economic scenarios.
READ MORES&P 500 Nears Worst Month in Over a Year as Rising Yields Signal Inflation Concerns
The S&P 500 is facing its most significant monthly decline since December 2022, with a 5.5% drop in April, effectively halving the gains made earlier in the year. This downturn is attributed to rising bond yields, spurred by ongoing inflation fears that a strong economy might be sustaining. Despite nearing its March 28 record peak, the recent rise in Treasury yields, which accelerated this April, has unsettled the U.S. stock market. Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds suggests that Treasury rates may need to increase further to temper economic demand sufficiently for the Federal Reserve to be assured that inflation is moving consistently towards its 2% goal.
READ MORERay Dalio's Risk-Parity Strategy Falters, Prompting Massive Investor Pullback
Ray Dalio's renowned risk-parity investment strategy, which gained prominence during the Great Financial Crisis, is experiencing a significant downturn, leading to substantial withdrawals by institutional investors. Over the past five years, risk-parity funds managed by Bridgewater Associates and others have underperformed, prompting public pensions in New Mexico, Oregon, and Ohio to retract substantial investments, reducing the fund sizes by an estimated $70 billion from their peak. Despite calls from these firms for more time to recover, given predictions of a divergent market landscape in the coming decade, investors' patience has worn thin. The strategy's struggle to deliver during the volatile post-pandemic market phases has notably shaken confidence in an approach that emphasizes diversification and often leverages to balance returns against risks.
READ MORERising Delinquencies Among Low-Income U.S. Borrowers Signal Economic Warning
In the U.S., lower-income borrowers are increasingly unable to meet their loan obligations, prompting banks to tighten credit availability for products like credit cards and car loans. This financial strain is partly due to dwindling savings and persistent high interest rates which are exacerbating the budget constraints of households earning under $45,000 annually. The situation is starkly different for higher-income groups, who continue to demonstrate financial resilience. Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Federal Reserve and Arijit Roy of U.S. Bancorp highlighted concerns about rising consumer delinquencies and default rates, especially among first-time and low-income borrowers, signaling potential worsening economic conditions.
READ MOREGold Suffers Steepest Daily Plunge in a Year As Geopolitical Fears Ease
Gold prices experienced a significant drop of 2.4%, falling to $2,354.10, marking the most substantial one-day decline in over a year as geopolitical tensions lessened and investors moved towards higher-risk assets like stocks. This shift in investment preference reflects a broader market reevaluation following a temporary peak where the front-month gold for April delivery reached a record high of $2,398.40 just last Friday. Ricardo Evangelista, a senior analyst at ActivTrades, noted that the easing of tensions in the Middle East is prompting a renewed focus on the resilience of the U.S. economy and ongoing inflation concerns.
READ MOREBrent Crude Falls to $86, Market Stabilizes Amid Easing Mideast Concerns
Oil prices declined as the geopolitical risk premium associated with Middle East tensions began to diminish, with Brent crude sliding to near $86 a barrel after experiencing its most significant drop since early February last week. This trend coincides with a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The market has stabilized somewhat after volatile trading last Friday, following Iran's minimization of Israel's retaliatory actions to its drone and missile strike. Meanwhile, the U.S. House has recently passed new sanctions targeting Iran's oil sector, with expectations that the Senate will soon follow suit. Additionally, the U.S. has approved more funding to support Ukraine amidst its ongoing conflict with Russia.
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