May CPI Printed 4.2%. Core Inflation Beat. So Why Did the Gold Price Drop?

May CPI came in at 4.2% — the fastest pace since early 2023 — and the gold price fell nearly $100 to 11-week lows. But the headline is almost entirely an energy story: gasoline is up 40.5% year-over-year while core CPI rose just 0.2% for the month, below forecast and down sharply from April. The market sold gold on a number it was already expecting. The data behind that number tells a different story.

Gold Is Down 9%. The CPI Print That Could Either Extend the Drop — or End It.

Gold is down 9% from its April high near $4,800. Two forces drove the pullback: the Iran–Israel ceasefire unwound the geopolitical risk premium, and a blowout jobs report pushed Fed rate-hike odds to 68–70% by December. The May CPI print is the next catalyst. Here’s the mechanism behind the move — and what each scenario means for physical holders.