January 2025 saw retail sales fall 0.9%, marking the steepest monthly decline in a year and significantly exceeding economists’ expected 0.2% drop. The slump was broad-based, with sporting goods leading the downturn at 4.6% and auto sales falling 2.8%. Economists attribute the decline to post-holiday spending fatigue and severe winter weather. While inflation readings remain mixed, analysts project the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (Core PCE) will show improvement, dropping to 2.6% from December’s 2.8%. However, markets are now pricing in a delayed timeline for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with less than 50% probability of a cut before July.
...Original Source: Yahoo Finance
Oil markets are performing well this week despite ongoing geopolitical complexities. Brent crude advanced toward a 1% weekly gain, trading at $75.43 per barrel, while WTI crude remained stable around $71.06. The positive momentum stems from two key factors: the U.S. Treasury’s aggressive plan to reduce Iranian oil exports by over 90%, and President Trump’s measured approach to reciprocal tariffs, opting for study rather than immediate implementation. However, market analyst Stephen Innes suggests that while prices may trend lower, an immediate collapse is unlikely. The potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has partially reduced the fear premium in oil prices,...
Original Source: MarketWatch
Former Congressman Ron Paul’s decades-long campaign for Federal Reserve transparency has gained unexpected momentum with support from Elon Musk, who now heads the Department of Government Efficiency Service (DOGE). Paul advocates for a thorough audit that would reveal the Fed’s decision-making processes, overseas transactions, and policy implementation details – going far beyond the current annual financial audits. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains that the bank is already sufficiently transparent through its existing audit processes and delayed release of meeting minutes, Paul argues this isn’t enough, emphasizing the need for real-time access to policy discussions and international operations. The 89-year-old...
Original Source: Barron's
Most investors don’t realize that gold investments face a unique tax challenge. While stocks and bonds may enjoy favorable tax treatment under certain circumstances, physical gold and silver fall into a special “collectibles” category with the IRS – one that can significantly reduce your returns. The Tax Challenge with Gold Investments When you sell physical gold or silver, long-term gains are taxed at up to 28%, much higher than the 20% maximum rate for stocks held for more than one year. Short-term gains face even steeper rates, taxed as ordinary income. This tax treatment isn’t limited to physical metals –...
Brazil has confirmed it won’t pursue a common BRICS currency during its 2024 presidency, despite previous discussions. Instead, the country is focusing on practical solutions to facilitate trade between BRICS nations using local currencies, while facing strong opposition from the U.S., including threats of 100% tariffs from President Trump. The expanding BRICS alliance, which recently added six new members including Saudi Arabia and Iran, continues to seek practical alternatives for international trade while maintaining that these efforts aren’t directed against any particular nation.
...Original Source: Reuters
As gold reaches a record $2,900 per ounce, defying traditional market logic about interest rates and dollar strength, silver is emerging as an attractive alternative investment. Unlike gold, which sees only 6% industrial demand, over half of silver consumption comes from industrial applications, particularly in growing sectors like renewable energy, AI, electronics, and medical equipment. Despite having historically traded at a 15:1 ratio with gold based on natural abundance, silver now trades at 100:1, suggesting potential undervaluation.
...Original Source: Fidelity.co
Hong Kong’s jewelry shops are experiencing a surge in activity as gold prices hit new record highs this week. While many residents rush to sell their gold for substantial profits – up to 63% for those who bought in October 2023 – others, particularly mainland Chinese couples planning weddings, are buying despite high prices. Some analysts now predict gold could reach $3,400 this year, driven by central bank buying and inflation concerns.
...Original Source: SCMP.com
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced that the US is expanding its trade policy focus to include currency manipulation alongside tariffs. The announcement comes as the administration develops plans for reciprocal tariffs by April 1st, with Bessent emphasizing that while the US maintains a strong dollar policy, it won’t accept other nations deliberately weakening their currencies for trade advantage. The Treasury’s review will create what Bessent calls a “reciprocal index” that examines three key factors for each trading partner: existing tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and currency manipulation practices. This comprehensive approach represents a significant shift in US trade strategy, with Bessent...
Original Source: Yahoo Finance
Precious metals are rallying strongly as investors seek safe havens amid growing trade tensions. Silver has surged to its highest level since October, climbing 3.1% to over $33 per ounce, while gold continues its longest winning streak since August 2020 with seven straight weeks of gains. The surge follows President Trump’s order for new country-specific tariffs, adding to his existing 10% levies on Chinese goods and planned 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports. The metals’ strong performance is supported by multiple factors beyond trade concerns. Central banks, particularly China’s, have been increasing their gold reserves, while investors have been...
Original Source: Yahoo Finance
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