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The Fed Votes Wednesday. Watch the Tally, Not the Decision.

Empty Federal Reserve boardroom with twelve leather chairs around a polished oval table — FOMC vote split gold

The Fed votes Wednesday. Most coverage will tell you to watch whether it holds or hikes. That is the wrong number. The vote tally — unanimous or split 10-2 — is the signal that defines September rate-hike expectations and gold’s real yield path. Here is the mechanism most headlines will miss.

Oil Dropped 7%. Gold Rose. Here Is the Mechanism Everyone Misses.

Infographic showing the oil-inflation-rate-gold transmission chain: why did gold rise when oil fell — falling oil lowers inflation, which reduces rate-hike odds, which lifts gold

Oil dropped 7% on Monday after the US and Iran paused their 13-night exchange of strikes. Gold rose. Most headlines reported the move. Here is the mechanism that explains it — and why the same chain caused gold to fall during the conflict in the first place.

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