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Dohmen’s Contrarian View: Recession Already Here, Markets Set for Sharp Decline

Bert Dohmen’s Wellington Letter warns investors that current market selling signals the beginning of a bear market, not an opportunity for bargain hunting. The analysis points to stocks plunging through support levels on high-volume selling, indicating a potential “liquidation bear market.” The report claims that a recession has been masked by misleading economic data during the Biden administration, and once an official recession is recognized, institutional investors will shift massive allocations from stocks to bonds. With stocks at record overvaluation levels combined with limited liquidity, Dohmen advises readers to avoid bargain hunting and ignore any temporary bounces.

Fear Index Plunges to 17 as Bitcoin Falls Below $80K and Institutional Money Flees

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Monday, dropping to $77,459 before recovering slightly to $79,085, marking a 14% decline over the past week. The sell-off coincides with broader market declines and comes after four consecutive weeks of institutional investors reducing crypto exposure, with $4.75 billion in outflows from digital asset funds. Market sentiment has turned bearish, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 17, while economic uncertainty has increased due to President Trump’s tariff policies and his recent comments about a possible “period of transition” for the economy.

Economic Whiplash: From Market Highs to Recession Fears in Less Than a Month

The US economy has rapidly shifted from optimism to recession fears in just 20 days. Despite recent all-time stock market highs and solid economic growth, market volatility has increased significantly following President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs, including a planned 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum imports. While economists note the actual risk of imminent recession remains low, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic policies—particularly his tariff plans—is creating what JPMorgan strategist David Kelly calls an “uncertainty tax” that’s making businesses hesitant to invest and consumers cautious about spending.

Trump Tariff War Triggers $4 Trillion Tech Market Wipeout

President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have triggered a major stock market selloff, wiping out $4 trillion from the S&P 500’s value since its February 19 peak. The S&P 500 has fallen 8.6% from its record high and is approaching correction territory (10% decline), while the Nasdaq has already confirmed a correction. Monday saw particularly steep declines, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.7% and the Nasdaq plunging 4%, its worst day since September 2022. Business leaders and investors are especially concerned about the uncertainty created by Trump’s unexpected tariffs against allies like Canada, Mexico, and Europe, with Delta Air Lines already […]

Nasdaq in Correction Territory as Investors Question US Growth Outlook and Flee to International Markets

US markets have plunged into a significant correction, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 now down 12% from its February peak and trading at its most oversold level since 2022. Monday’s selloff was particularly brutal, representing the Nasdaq’s worst drop since October 2022, while the S&P 500 fell 2.7% and closed below its critical 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2023. This market downturn reflects deep concerns about President Trump’s economic policies, particularly regarding trade and government employment. The once-dominant “US exceptionalism” investment thesis is crumbling as American equities have dropped 4.5% year-to-date while international markets in China […]

Market Rotation: Investors Flee US Stocks for Global Safe Havens Amid Recession Fears

Investors are rapidly shifting away from US stocks toward other global assets as recession fears grow and confidence in US market dominance fades. Monday saw a $1.1 trillion selloff in the Nasdaq 100, with traders moving toward precious metals, Chinese stocks, the yen, euro, and government bonds as safe havens. Gold and silver have attracted particular interest as traditional hedges against both inflation and economic uncertainty. This market rotation comes as a surprising consequence of President Trump’s “America First” policies, which have ironically triggered capital outflows from US assets. Major investment firms including Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and T. Rowe Price […]

Critical Minerals Race: How China Outmaneuvers the U.S. in Strategic Resources

The United States is losing the battle with China over critical minerals like graphite, nickel, lithium, and cobalt that are essential for green technologies and national defense. While the Trump administration has been aggressively pushing for greater access to these resources in places like Ukraine and Greenland, China maintains control over many of the best mineral deposits, allowing it to dictate prices. U.S. policy inconsistency has disrupted Western mining companies’ plans, and these companies often struggle to navigate the political risks in countries where critical minerals are abundant, leaving them vulnerable when instability occurs.

Haven Asset Regains Momentum: Gold Surpasses $2,900 Again

Gold has bounced back above $2,900 per ounce after Monday’s slight decline. The earlier drop happened during a market selloff sparked by President Trump’s warning about economic challenges from his new tariff policies. While gold typically serves as a safe haven during uncertainty, it can face pressure when investors need cash during market turmoil. The precious metal has risen 11% in 2024, repeatedly breaking records. This growth stems from three main factors: concerns about Trump administration policies, increased buying by central banks, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further—a move that benefits non-yielding assets like gold. […]

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