Fed’s Powell Warns of ‘Dual-Mandate Tension’ as Tariffs Threaten Both Inflation and Growth

Federal Reserve Chair Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs could force the Fed to choose between its dual mandates of controlling inflation and supporting growth. Speaking in Chicago, he stated tariffs would likely push the economy “further away from our goals” throughout this year by potentially raising inflation while slowing economic growth. Powell explained that tariff-driven inflation might be temporary or persistent, depending on their magnitude, how quickly price increases spread, and whether inflation expectations remain stable. He offered no specific guidance on interest rates, saying the Fed is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity” before making policy changes. Markets […]

Canada Benefits as China Abandons US Oil Amid Escalating Trade War

China is dramatically shifting its oil imports from the US to Canada amid worsening trade tensions. Chinese refiners have reduced US oil purchases by about 90% while significantly increasing Canadian crude imports through the newly expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline. In March alone, China imported a record 7.3 million barrels from Canada’s west coast port, with even higher volumes expected in April. This shift represents another economic disruption resulting from President Trump’s trade policies.

Manufacturing Sector Shows Resilience in March Despite Overall Industrial Decline

U.S. manufacturing continued its positive trend in March, increasing 0.3% for the fifth straight month, with the sector growing at a robust 5.1% annualized pace in the first quarter of 2024. The automotive industry was particularly strong, with motor vehicle and parts production rising 1.2% following February’s significant 9.2% increase. However, overall industrial production declined 0.3% in March, exceeding economists’ expectations of a 0.1% drop. This decline was primarily driven by utilities output plummeting 5.8% as warmer weather reduced energy demands. Mining output, which includes oil and natural gas production, grew moderately at 0.6%. Despite manufacturing’s recent strength, economists express […]

Consumers Rush Big Purchases Ahead of Expected Tariff Impacts, Retail Sales Soar

U.S. retail sales jumped 1.4% in March, the largest increase in over two years, as consumers rushed to purchase big-ticket items, especially vehicles, before potential tariff-induced price increases. While this surge exceeded expectations, economists warn it could lead to weaker future sales and doesn’t eliminate concerns about how ongoing trade wars might fuel inflation and slow economic growth in coming months. Restaurant sales showed strong growth, suggesting consumers remain confident despite trade tensions.

Dollar Dominance Declining: How U.S. Trade Policies Are Reshaping Global Finance

Recent market volatility has highlighted concerns about the U.S. dollar’s status as both a safe-haven asset and global reserve currency. Following President Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements, traditional market correlations have broken down, with the dollar falling to a three-year low while other safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen strengthened. Analysts suggest Trump’s aggressive trade policies are undermining a financial system that the U.S. previously championed. Though any shift away from dollar dominance won’t happen immediately due to its entrenched role in global transactions, experts believe the current trajectory could lead to higher borrowing costs for Americans […]

Bessent Dismisses CEO Recession Fears: ‘Focus on Main Street, Not Wall Street’

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is urging top CEOs to stop worrying about tariffs, promising clarity within 90 days on trade policy, taxes, and deregulation. This reassurance comes as major business leaders express recession concerns, with JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon predicting a downturn and Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon noting increased recession risks. Even Bessent’s former mentor Stanley Druckenmiller has criticized tariffs exceeding 10%. Consumer-facing companies are already feeling the impact, with Constellation Brands reporting decreased spending on restaurants and consumer goods affecting their beer sales. Bessent has dismissed these Wall Street concerns, emphasizing the administration’s focus on Main Street over Wall Street. […]

S&P Warns of Potential US Credit Downgrade as Debt Reaches 100% of GDP

S&P Global Ratings has issued a warning that it may further downgrade the United States’ credit rating from its current AA+ status, citing unsustainable debt levels and ongoing political dysfunction. In an April 14 report, S&P indicated that upcoming budget negotiations will be crucial in determining US creditworthiness. The US has already experienced credit downgrades, with S&P first reducing the rating in 2011 during a debt ceiling crisis when national debt was $15 trillion (66% of GDP). Today, that debt has ballooned to $36 trillion, with public debt now representing approximately 100% of GDP. This deteriorating fiscal outlook prompted Fitch […]

Chinese Officials Outline Path to Resolving US Trade War

China has outlined several conditions for restarting trade talks with the Trump administration, including more respectful rhetoric from US officials, consistency in the US position, and addressing China’s concerns about sanctions and Taiwan. Beijing also wants a designated point person with Trump’s support who can help prepare a deal for Trump and Xi Jinping to sign. The ongoing trade dispute, with 145% US tariffs on most Chinese goods since Trump took office, threatens global economic stability and has led to broad Chinese public support for retaliation against the US.

Gold Passes $3,300/oz as Metals Bull Market Rages

As markets grapple with tariff chaos, gold soars to a record $3,300/oz. See why metals are outperforming while traditional investments falter.

US Challenges China’s Mineral Dominance with New Tariff Investigation

President Trump has ordered an investigation into possible tariffs on all critical mineral imports to the US, citing national security concerns. The probe will examine market dynamics for minerals like cobalt, nickel, rare earths, and uranium. This move comes as the US remains heavily dependent on China and other countries for processed minerals essential to the economy. China recently retaliated against Trump’s tariffs by restricting rare earth exports, highlighting America’s vulnerability in this sector.