U.S. Service Sector Contracts as Trade War Uncertainty Grips Businesses

The U.S. service sector, which includes businesses like restaurants, hotels, and transportation companies, shrank in May for the first time in nearly a year. The Institute for Supply Management’s services index dropped to 49.9% from 51.6% in April—any reading below 50% indicates contraction. This decline is largely attributed to ongoing trade wars that have created uncertainty among business leaders, frozen hiring, and increased costs through tariffs. Key indicators showed significant weakness: new orders fell to their lowest level in over three years, while prices surged to a 2.5-year high due to tariffs raising supply costs. Despite the Trump administration relaxing […]

Is 2025 the New 1979? Why Gold Could Be Set to Double Again

Gold doubled in 42 days in 1979. The setup today looks eerily similar. Here’s why Mike Maloney says the biggest moves may still lie ahead.

CBO Projects $2.4 Trillion Deficit Surge from Trump Tax Plan as Senate Battle Looms

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that the Republican tax bill recently passed by the House would increase US budget deficits by $2.42 trillion over the next decade. This increase comes from a combination of $3.67 trillion in reduced tax revenues and $1.25 trillion in spending cuts. The bill includes making Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay, and raising the state and local tax deduction cap. While Trump administration officials believe economic growth will offset these concerns, the bill faces opposition in the Senate and criticism from fiscal conservatives who worry about the […]

Oil Prices Stabilize Amid Supply Tug-of-War: OPEC+ Increases vs. Canadian Disruptions

Oil prices remained stable on Wednesday as opposing forces balanced each other out. While OPEC+ countries plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, which typically pushes prices down, Canadian wildfires have reduced that country’s oil output by 344,000 barrels per day, helping support prices. Additional market factors include ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, concerns about Iran’s nuclear deal negotiations, and Russia’s declining oil revenues. Market analysts see limited potential for price increases due to worries about oversupply and slowing global economic growth.

Metals Markets Surge: Gold Hits $3,382 as Copper Supply Tightens

Gold futures climbed 0.2% to $3,382.60 per troy ounce as investors seek safety amid market uncertainty. The precious metal is benefiting from two main factors: President Trump’s new executive order doubling steel and aluminum tariffs, and escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Central banks continue to support gold prices, adding 12 metric tons to global reserves in April, though this represents a 12% decrease from March. Meanwhile, copper and aluminum prices also rose, with copper maintaining a 10% gain year-to-date despite trade concerns, supported by supply disruptions in Chile and Congo.

Private Sector Jobs Growth Hits 2-Year Low, Treasury Yields Tumble

U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply on Wednesday after ADP reported private sector job creation hit its weakest level in over two years. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped more than 4 basis points to 4.414%, while the 2-year yield fell over 3 basis points to 3.926%. Private payrolls increased by only 37,000 jobs in May, far below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest monthly total since March 2023. This weak jobs data comes just before Friday’s official government employment report and coincides with new 50% steel tariffs taking effect and stalled U.S.-China trade negotiations.

Private Sector Job Growth Hits Two-Year Low in May

US private employers added just 37,000 jobs in May 2024, marking the smallest monthly gain since March 2023. This figure fell significantly short of economists’ expectations of 110,000 new jobs and represents a decline from April’s revised 60,000 job additions. Despite these weak numbers, economists caution against reading too much into the ADP report, citing its poor track record in recent years for accurately predicting official employment data. The services sector carried nearly all job growth, adding 36,000 positions primarily in financial activities, information, and hospitality. Meanwhile, the goods-producing sector lost 2,000 jobs due to declines in manufacturing and mining. […]

Central Banks’ Secret Gold Rush: Why 80 Tons Monthly Signals Dollar Distrust

Gold prices are defying traditional market logic, approaching $3,400 per ounce despite expectations of a pullback. The key driver isn’t retail investors but central banks, which are secretly buying approximately 80 metric tons monthly. This shift reflects growing concerns about the US dollar’s reliability as a reserve currency, particularly as America increasingly weaponizes dollar access against both enemies and allies. Poland’s central bank governor captures the sentiment: gold is “free from direct links to any country’s economic policy.” The trend appears sustainable as long as geopolitical tensions persist and the US continues its “America First” approach to dollar policy.

Trump Doubles Metal Tariffs to 50% as EU Negotiator Claims Trade Progress

Trade negotiations between the EU and US are showing promising signs according to European trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic, who met with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Paris on Wednesday. Despite this optimism, tensions rose as the Trump administration doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, effective immediately. The tariff increase, which applies to all trading partners except the UK, has jolted metal markets and drawn sharp criticism from European businesses and officials. Sefcovic noted that both the EU and US face the same challenge of steel overcapacity and should work together rather than against each […]

Gold Prices Steady at $3,349 Amid Trade Tensions and Mixed Jobs Report

Gold prices remained stable at $3,349.19 per ounce on Wednesday as two opposing forces balanced each other out. While stronger U.S. job openings data typically pushes gold prices down, ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are keeping demand for gold as a safe investment high. Analysts expect gold to trade between $3,300-$3,400 in the near term, with Friday’s employment report being the next major factor that could move prices.