Markets Slash Rate Cut Odds to 17% as Employment Data Surprises Fed

Financial markets have significantly reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, with investors now pricing in an 83% chance of no changes through July—up from just 40% a month ago. The shift follows May’s surprisingly robust job growth report, which suggests the economy doesn’t urgently need monetary stimulus. The Fed has maintained “restrictive” interest rates since January, keeping borrowing costs high to combat inflation concerns linked to President Trump’s tariff policies. However, economists remain divided on the Fed’s future path. Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts three rate cuts by year-end, citing concerns about downward revisions to jobs data and […]

Precious Metals Mixed: Gold Stable While Platinum Retreats from 4-Year Peak

Gold markets found equilibrium near $3,330 an ounce as the second day of US-China trade talks in London signaled potential breakthroughs. The negotiations revealed possible compromises: America might ease technology export restrictions in exchange for China relaxing limitations on rare earth shipments. This diplomatic progress reduced immediate demand for safe-haven assets. Year-to-date, gold has gained approximately 27%, driven by global trade tensions that enhanced its appeal as a wealth preservation tool. Although the rally has moderated from April’s record highs, ongoing tariff concerns maintain support for precious metals. Bank of America’s Francisco Blanch forecasts gold reaching $4,000, though not until […]

Congress Has Until Mid-August to Raise Debt Ceiling, New CBO Report Warns

According to the Congressional Budget Office’s latest estimate, the United States could face a financial crisis between mid-August and the end of September when the government’s special accounting measures to avoid breaching the debt ceiling are exhausted. This projection extends the deadline by approximately two weeks from the March estimate, potentially providing Congress more time to increase the federal borrowing limit. Since January, when the debt ceiling was reinstated, the Treasury Department has been using “extraordinary measures” to continue meeting financial obligations without exceeding the $36.1 trillion debt limit. Republicans are currently working on legislation that would increase Treasury’s borrowing […]

Crude Markets Rally on Hope for U.S.-China Deal While Saudi Cuts Chinese Supply

Oil prices increased on Tuesday as markets responded positively to ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations in London. Brent crude rose to $67.20 per barrel while U.S. crude reached $65.43. The price gains reflect investor optimism that a trade deal could boost global economic growth and oil demand. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia plans to slightly reduce its oil shipments to China in July, and OPEC+ continues to gradually increase production. Separate negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear issues and sanctions remain unresolved, which could impact future oil supply if sanctions are lifted.

Currency Markets Hold Breath as US-China Trade Negotiations Enter Critical Phase

Currency markets showed measured movements Tuesday, with the dollar holding steady near six-week lows as traders awaited outcomes from US-China trade negotiations in London. The talks, following a phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, are addressing challenging issues including semiconductor export restrictions, rare earth minerals access, and student visa policies. The dollar index remained virtually unchanged at 98.989, reflecting its significant 8.7% decline this year as investors seek alternatives amid trade uncertainty. Sterling dropped 0.4% to $1.3499 after UK wage growth came in below expectations at 5.2%, potentially influencing the Bank of England’s rate-cutting timeline. Markets now price […]

This Rare Silver Signal Has Preceded Every Major Silver Rally — And It Just Flashed Again

Is silver on the cusp of an explosive move?  In a recent presentation, Mike Maloney revisited a long-standing chart pattern — one that has been over 45 years in the making — and delivered a bold forecast: silver’s breakout above $36 signals the beginning of what he calls a “slingshot move,” a rapid, potentially exponential rally that could usher in triple-digit silver prices in the near future.  But while technical patterns tell part of the story, it’s the economic backdrop that makes this moment so compelling. Let’s unpack why this time may be different — and why silver could be […]

Investors Play Both Sides: Why Stocks and Gold Are Rising Together in 2025

Gold and the S&P 500 are both nearing all-time highs simultaneously—a rare market event that reflects conflicting investor sentiments. While stocks typically signal optimism and risk-taking, gold represents safety and uncertainty hedging. This unusual tandem rise suggests investors are betting on both economic growth (driven by AI and potential Fed rate cuts) and protecting against risks like inflation, deficits, and dollar weakness. The gold-to-S&P ratio currently favors gold at 1.76, indicating some preference for safety. Experts compare this delicate balance to “spinning two plates”—possible but requiring specific conditions to sustain.

Precious Metals Mixed: Gold Gains While Markets Await Inflation Data, Trade Talk Results

Gold showed modest gains Tuesday, climbing 0.3% to $3,336.33 per ounce, as markets closely monitored ongoing US-China trade discussions in London and anticipated key inflation data. The talks, now in their second day, aim to ease tensions between the world’s two largest economies following reciprocal tariffs imposed in April. While both nations agreed to a temporary tariff pause last month, investors remain cautious. Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report will be crucial for gauging the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates, with most expecting rates to remain unchanged at the June 17-18 meeting. Analysts note that while gold found support […]