Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
Published: 08-10-2026, 12:05 pm
Gold is trading at $4,347 this morning, holding firm. The price is not the story today, however. The story is a single word Trump used with Axios over the weekend, and what it reveals about where the Strait of Hormuz standoff actually stands.
What Did Trump Actually Say About Iran Negotiations?
On Sunday, Trump told Axios reporter Barak Ravid that the United States is “only semi-negotiating” with Iran. He did not threaten a new military strike. Instead, he described a deliberate strategy of patience.
“We are low-keying it,” Trump said. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”
He added: “It will work out. It always works out. It’s like a chess game.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed this framing on Monday, though not in the way Trump intended. A spokesperson stated that no direct negotiations are underway between the two countries. All existing communications flow through intermediaries — primarily Pakistan and Qatar — while Oman conducts a separate bilateral negotiation with Iran over Hormuz shipping routes. Tehran is not calling any of this negotiation with the United States.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council laid out new conditions over the weekend for reopening the strait. Specifically, Tehran demands an end to the US naval blockade, the lifting of all sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and full compensation for war damages caused by US strikes since the conflict began on February 28, 2026.
These are not opening-position demands designed to shrink in talks. As Axios noted, Iran previously applied them as conditions for a nuclear deal. Tehran has now moved those same demands downstream to cover the reopening of a single shipping lane.
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Why Does the Hormuz Stalemate Matter for Gold Prices?
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply in peacetime. Since the conflict began, its closure has kept energy markets tense and has complicated the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions considerably.
Here is the mechanism that matters for gold holders. When energy prices stay elevated, inflation expectations stay elevated. Consequently, when inflation expectations stay elevated, the Fed faces pressure to raise rates. And when rate-hike probability rises, real yields tend to rise alongside it, which is typically negative for gold.
So why is gold sitting comfortably above $4,300 despite a September rate-hike probability hovering near 60%?
Because the market is learning that this standoff does not resolve quickly.
Trump has signaled that a Hormuz deal was “days away” more than a dozen times since the conflict started. Each signal temporarily pushed oil lower and stocks higher. Each time, the same standoff reasserted itself within 48 to 72 hours. Moreover, the pattern is now well-documented: as CNBC reported on August 7, the administration’s deal optimism has moved markets repeatedly without producing a deal.
Therefore, that pattern is shifting how professional investors position gold. Rather than treating each “deal is close” signal as a legitimate near-term event, they are beginning to price the stalemate as a structural feature. GLD added $896 million in inflows last week and $1.78 billion over the past month, according to ETF Db data. That is patient capital rotating into gold, not speculative money chasing headlines.
What Is Iran’s Economic Position Right Now?
Trump’s “chess game” framing carries real analytical weight, though it cuts both ways.
On one hand, Iran’s economy is under severe strain. The US naval blockade has limited Iranian oil exports. Inflation is running at damaging levels. Trump said outright that Iran cannot pay its troops. If economic pressure alone could force a resolution, the conditions for it arguably exist today.
On the other hand, Iran escalated its demands over the weekend rather than moderated them. Houthi rebels attacked the port of Mocha twice in 24 hours, threatening to expand the conflict to a second critical shipping lane in the Red Sea. Tehran’s political calculus may not follow the economic logic Trump is applying.
That divergence is precisely why the stalemate matters as a gold market signal. Both outcomes remain plausible: a quick deal or a prolonged standoff. Sustained uncertainty at this level historically supports a gold price floor rather than a ceiling.
How Should Gold Investors Interpret This Development?
Additional clarity arrives from a different direction this week. July CPI data drops on Wednesday, August 12. The consensus expects headline inflation to ease slightly to 3.4% from 3.5% in June. If the data comes in softer than expected, it would reduce the probability of a September rate hike and provide a positive catalyst for gold. Conversely, a surprise to the upside reinforces the scenario where the Fed acts despite the labor market slowing.
Gold’s resistance sits at $4,380 according to technical analysis, with support at $4,300. The stalemate provides a geopolitical floor. The inflation data this week determines whether there is room to break higher.
For investors holding physical gold or gold ETFs, the shift in Trump’s language is worth noting. “Semi-negotiating” is not a deal announcement. It is the administration formally describing a strategy of attrition. Attrition rarely resolves in 48 hours.
Gold has historically performed well in prolonged geopolitical uncertainty. Not because uncertainty is inherently favorable, but because gold carries no counterparty risk, no earnings to disappoint, and no sovereign issuer that can change its terms. A geopolitical chess game can last a long time. Physical metal does not have a clock running against it.
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SOURCES
1. Axios — Trump: “We are only semi-negotiating with them,” August 9, 2026
2. ABC News Live Updates — Iran war negotiations, August 10, 2026
3. CBS News Live Updates — Trump “semi-negotiating,” Houthi Mocha attacks, August 10, 2026
4. Bloomberg — Trump signals US will rely on economic pressure over Iran military action, August 10, 2026
5. CNBC — Trump teased an Iran deal that didn’t come, but markets soared, August 7, 2026
6. Benzinga — GLD ETF inflows $896M, AUM $141.5B, August 9, 2026
7. InvestingLive — Iran vows Hormuz stays shut, Houthis widen Red Sea blockade, August 10, 2026
8. GoldSilver.com — Gold and silver spot prices, August 10, 2026
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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