ANZ Bank sees gold’s recent retreat from its $3,500/oz peak as a temporary correction creating a buying opportunity. Despite improved US-China relations, several factors support higher gold prices: Q1 US GDP contracted for the first time since 2022, inflation expectations rose to 6.7% due to tariff pressures, and markets anticipate up to 100bp in Fed rate cuts.
Gold demand in Q1 reached its highest level since 2016, with investment demand up 170% year-over-year and ETF flows turning positive. Central bank buying remained strong, though jewelry demand declined due to high prices. ANZ maintains its $3,600/oz year-end target and identifies $3,000-3,200/oz as a key support zone likely to attract fresh investment.