Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
Published: 06-23-2025, 10:45 am | Updated: 06-23-2025, 08:55 am
Goldman Sachs warns that oil prices could surge if problems arise in the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway where much of the world’s oil passes through.
The investment bank laid out what could happen:
– If oil shipments through the strait were cut in half for a month, oil prices could jump to $110 per barrel
– If Iran’s oil production falls by 1.75 million barrels per day, prices could reach $90 per barrel
Why now? Tensions are rising in the Middle East. Iran is considering closing the strait after recent U.S. and Israeli military actions against the country.
The impact would vary by region. European natural gas prices could climb significantly, potentially reaching 74 euros per megawatt-hour. However, the U.S. would feel less pain at the gas pump because America produces plenty of its own natural gas and has strong export capabilities.
Goldman expects oil prices to eventually stabilize around $95 per barrel by late 2025, but the immediate shock could be severe if the strait faces any major disruption.
