Recession Fears Resurface as Economic Indicators Flash Mixed Signals

Although the U.S. economy has avoided a technical recession so far, signs of potential trouble persist. GDP has slowed, consumer spending is under scrutiny, and employment growth is uneven. Inflation and interest rates are closely monitored, as persistent high inflation may curb consumer spending and force the Fed to act. The yield curve remains a crucial signal, with inversions hinting at possible recessions. Stock market performance is also a barometer of confidence. While these indicators can’t predict the exact timing or severity of a downturn, they offer valuable clues about the economy’s direction.

Florida Legalizes Gold and Silver Coins for Everyday Use

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a groundbreaking bill (HB 999) allowing gold and silver coins to be used for everyday transactions. Coins that meet specific purity standards can now be used alongside traditional currency, marking Florida as the first major state to implement this. The law empowers money services businesses like check cashers and digital payment platforms to accept gold and silver. The move, sponsored by Rep. Bill Bankson, aims to reduce tax burdens and provide more secure, stable alternatives to the dollar, which has lost value since leaving the gold standard.

Global Bond Markets Rebound on Debt Issuance Shifts

Global bond markets have recently experienced extreme volatility, with long-term debt initially shunned by investors, only to see a rapid rebound. This instability was sparked by signals from Japan and the U.K. about potential changes in long-term debt issuance. Japan’s finance ministry’s hint at reducing 30- and 40-year bond issuance sent yields plummeting, while the U.K.’s similar plans drove long-term rates lower. This shift indicates rising anxiety over long-term debt sustainability as governments balance high borrowing needs with investor caution. The U.S. 30-year yield also dropped, reversing last week’s surge to multi-year highs.

SHFE’s Big Push: Opening Commodities to Foreign Investors

The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is taking a major step toward internationalizing the renminbi and expanding global access to China’s commodities markets. SHFE released 34 proposals aimed at allowing foreign brokers and investors direct access, removing the need for onshore intermediaries. The plans include enabling foreign traders to post margin in currencies like the U.S. dollar and cover futures for key industrial metals such as alumina, nickel, and copper cathodes. The goal is to challenge the dominance of overseas benchmarks, particularly the London Metal Exchange (LME), and establish China’s market as a key player in global pricing.

China’s SHFE Opens to Foreign Investors

China is set to shift global commodities trading as the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) plans to allow foreign investors to use foreign currency as collateral for yuan-denominated trades. This aims to boost China’s pricing power for key commodities like oil and metals, long set in New York, London, and Singapore. SHFE’s proposal includes reforms to access, trading, settlement, and risk controls across 18 contracts, enhancing global participation and advancing the yuan’s status.

Gold Prices Climb Ahead of Fed Minutes and Economic Data

Spot gold prices ticked up as traders sought bargains after Tuesday’s drop, with markets bracing for the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. Gold gained 26% this year and hit record highs in April, bolstered by global trade tensions and central bank buying. Goldman Sachs highlighted gold’s appeal amid U.S. economic uncertainty, central bank pressures, and persistent demand. Focus remains on key U.S. economic data and comments from central bank officials later this week.

Fed’s Williams: Strong Action Needed to Keep Inflation in Check

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams emphasized that central banks must act decisively when inflation moves off target. Speaking with BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, he underscored the importance of anchoring inflation expectations to avoid long-term inflation persistence. Williams pointed out that while short-term shocks might not have lasting inflation effects, the uncertain impacts of supply disruptions and trade policies—especially U.S. tariffs—require careful monitoring. He advised that central banks should prioritize avoiding costly mistakes rather than trying to perfect their responses.

Gold Rebounds Amid Strong U.S. Data and Trade Talk Uncertainties

Gold prices experienced a modest rebound on May 28, 2025, following a previous decline, as investors weighed positive U.S. economic data against ongoing trade discussions. The U.S. dollar strengthened, bolstered by robust consumer confidence figures, while global markets remained cautious ahead of upcoming job reports and Nvidia’s earnings. Despite initial optimism over eased trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe, market sentiment turned wary, influencing gold’s performance.

Swiss Gold Imports from U.S. Soar to 12-Year High

Swiss gold imports from the U.S. jumped to a record 63 metric tons in April, marking the highest level since 2012, thanks to the exclusion of precious metals from U.S. import tariffs. Although Switzerland’s total gold exports fell by 31% month-on-month, deliveries to India and China increased slightly. Some gold was re-exported to the UK, signaling a reshuffling of bullion flows. The data suggests a significant shift in global gold trade patterns amid changing tariff and market dynamics.

Citi Sees Gold at $3,500 as Americans Boost Holdings

Citi has reaffirmed its short-term gold price target at $3,500 per ounce, citing rising tariffs and geopolitical risks as key drivers. The bank has raised its gold price estimate from $3,000–$3,300 to a range of $3,100–$3,500, even as it maintains a cautious long-term outlook. Citi predicts gold prices will consolidate and stabilize in the second half of 2025 as trade tensions ease and the Federal Reserve adjusts its policies. Meanwhile, short-term targets for palladium and platinum remain at $1,050 and $900 per ounce, respectively.