Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi warns the US economy is “on the precipice of recession” after last week’s alarming economic data. July payrolls grew by just 73,000, with massive downward revisions slashing May and June figures to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively. Consumer spending has stalled, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and core inflation rose to 2.8%. Zandi blames Trump’s tariffs and immigration policies for the downturn, noting that 1.2 million foreign-born workers have left the workforce in six months. With inflation still above target, the Federal Reserve will struggle to provide relief through rate cuts.

President Trump’s push for lower interest rates faces structural obstacles far beyond Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s control. The era of cheap money that lasted over three decades is ending due to powerful economic forces: retiring Baby Boomers are spending rather than saving, China has stopped recycling trade surpluses into US Treasuries, and massive government debt plus AI investments are driving up credit demand. Bloomberg Economics analysis suggests 4.5% may be the new normal for 10-year Treasury rates—a dramatic shift from the ultra-low rates that fueled housing and stock market booms. While Trump may appoint dovish Fed members, these deeper supply-and-demand...

Silver has surged nearly 25% year-to-date in 2025, breaking above $35/oz to reach decade highs around $38. The rally is driven by a persistent supply deficit that has lasted seven consecutive years, with a cumulative shortfall of almost 800 million ounces since 2021. Industrial demand, particularly from solar panels and electronics, accounts for 59% of silver usage and continues growing. With the gold-to-silver ratio at 91 (versus historical average of 67), silver appears undervalued. Diminished freely-traded inventories have created conditions for a potential “silver squeeze,” where even modest demand increases could trigger sharp price spikes.

Treasury yields remained largely unchanged Monday as investors digested weak jobs data and Trump’s new tariff policies. The 10-year yield held steady at 4.22%, while the 2-year dipped slightly to 3.702%. Markets continue to process July’s disappointing employment report, which was revised down by 258,000 jobs for May and June combined. Political turmoil added to uncertainty after Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned, creating an opening for Trump to influence monetary policy as he pushes for lower rates.

Citi has raised its three-month gold price target to $3,500 per ounce from $3,300, citing deteriorating US economic conditions and inflation concerns. The bank expects gold to trade between $3,300-$3,600 as Trump’s new tariffs on dozens of countries, weak labor data showing only 73,000 jobs added in July, and a weakening dollar create favorable conditions for the precious metal. With markets now pricing an 81% chance of a September Fed rate cut and growing concerns about institutional credibility, gold demand has surged by over one-third since mid-2022, nearly doubling prices.

Oil prices fell over 1% Monday after OPEC+ confirmed it will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, continuing its strategy to regain market share. Brent crude dropped to $68.82 and WTI to $66.51 per barrel. The move reverses OPEC+’s previous cuts of 2.5 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, markets remain nervous about President Trump’s threat of 100% secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers, which could impact 1.7 million barrels per day of supply, though India has indicated it will continue purchasing Russian crude despite the warnings.

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler’s unexpected resignation on Friday gives President Trump an immediate opportunity to influence Fed policy and potentially accelerate his selection of the next Fed chair. The resignation comes amid intense White House pressure on the central bank, with Trump calling current Fed Chair Jerome Powell “TOO ANGRY, TOO STUPID, & TOO POLITICAL” for refusing to cut interest rates. While Trump can now appoint a replacement who favors lower rates, one additional vote is unlikely to sway Fed policy, as this week’s 9-2 vote to keep rates unchanged shows the challenge of shifting the committee’s stance.

The US dollar stabilized Monday after Friday’s sharp decline triggered by weak jobs data and political turmoil. July employment figures showed only 73,000 jobs added with massive downward revisions of 258,000 for prior months, while President Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner added to market uncertainty. The dollar had plunged over 2% against the yen and 1.5% against the euro Friday, with markets now pricing a 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc weakened after Trump imposed high tariffs on Swiss imports.

Switzerland’s massive gold refining industry has become a key factor in US-Swiss trade relations after President Trump imposed 39% tariffs on Swiss imports. The country processes billions in gold annually, with bullion exports to the US reaching over $36 billion in Q1 2024—representing two-thirds of Switzerland’s trade surplus with America. Despite handling vast sums, Swiss refiners only capture a few dollars per ounce for recasting gold bars. While gold is now exempt from the tariffs, the precious metal’s flows continue to significantly impact trade balance calculations between the two nations.