MAR 7, 2018
Greece’s debt crisis got a lot of attention, but it’s incredibly important to note that from a system standpoint, Greece is not too big to fail. Greece has a GDP that is smaller than that of Dallas-Ft. Worth.
Italy’s, on the other hand, is as large as the Western half of the United States excepting California. Every state, north to south, west of Texas. From Montana down to New Mexico. Amazon-including Washington, Las-Vegas including Nevada…all of it.
And it’s vastly more interconnected, economy-wise, than relatively isolated Greece. It’s economy is far any away the shakiest and most bad-debt-plagued of any EU citizen. On the heels of election results yield a real appetite for secessionist rhetoric, Italy eventually leaving the EU would be unfathomably chaotic.
Europe is headed for a breakup. But, after a year of watching the EU establishment work the polls just enough to maintain the status quo in the Netherlands, France and Germany I wasn’t expecting much from yesterday’s Italian elections.
But with turnout over 73% we got just that. Voters were clearly motivated to change the course Italy is on. Now, we knew that Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right coalition would do well alongside upstart Five Star Movement.
So, the only path forward in Italy’s best interest is Salvini and Di Maio coming together and selling a showdown with Germany over the euro and debt relief. Once they move forward with reforms both Brussels and the IMF will not back the true face of the EU will be shown and I expect an already angry Italy will shift very quickly towards Italeave just like what happened in the U.K. with Brexit.