100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

Published: 04-22-2025, 04:30 pm | Updated: 04-22-2025, 10:23 am Recent Treasury market volatility has been driven by concerns about foreign investor support, with some fearing that tariff tensions might cause investors to sell Treasuries. While foreign investors own about 30% of the Treasury market, Goldman Sachs’ William Marshall notes there’s little evidence of active selling by foreign central banks. However, long-term diversification away from dollar assets remains a possibility. The Treasury market faces three main challenges: concerns about the US economy, reassessment of tariff implications, and potential shifts away from dollar assets. Despite these challenges, positive factors such as potential

Published: 04-22-2025, 03:30 pm | Updated: 04-22-2025, 10:19 am Gold ETFs in China are experiencing massive growth as investors seek shelter from market uncertainty caused by trade tensions. Assets under management in Chinese gold ETFs have increased by $9.6 billion to reach 126.7 billion yuan, with the largest fund managed by Hua An Fund Management holding 64.2 billion yuan. Gold prices recently topped $3,400 per ounce and have risen over 60% in two years, positioning the metal as an alternative to traditional safe havens like US Treasury bonds and the dollar. This shift comes as the US dollar index approaches

Published: 04-22-2025, 02:05 pm | Updated: 04-22-2025, 10:12 am Apollo Global Management’s chief economist predicts a 90% chance that the US will enter a “Voluntary Trade Reset Recession” due to Trump’s tariff policies. Small businesses are expected to be particularly vulnerable as they lack the working capital to pay tariffs. While some financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs put recession chances between 40-45%, JPMorgan estimates a 60% probability. White House officials remain optimistic, but prominent economists including Ray Dalio and Lawrence Summers express significant concerns, with Summers predicting 2 million additional Americans could become unemployed.