100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

Published: 03-27-2025, 03:10 pm | Updated: 03-27-2025, 09:45 am U.S. jobless claims fell slightly to 224,000 last week, just below forecasts. Despite slower hiring, low layoffs continue to support labor market stability. President Trump’s trade policies and federal government downsizing plans are creating economic uncertainty. While federal worker claims haven’t significantly increased, the D.C. metro area is seeing more claims, likely from affected contractors. Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency has fired thousands of federal workers, though courts have ordered many reinstated. Continuing claims decreased to 1.856 million, and economists expect the March unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%.

Published: 03-27-2025, 02:30 pm | Updated: 03-27-2025, 09:35 am The Federal Reserve has increasingly adopted the word “uncertainty” in its communications, with Chair Powell using it 22 times after the latest rate decision and other officials following suit. This uncertainty stems largely from Trump’s planned tariffs, affecting the Fed’s inflation and growth projections while maintaining expectations for two rate cuts this year. The business sector is echoing these concerns, with companies like FedEx and Delta citing uncertainty when lowering forecasts, while consumer confidence has dropped to a four-year low amid policy apprehensions.

Published: 03-27-2025, 12:30 pm | Updated: 03-27-2025, 09:29 am U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Thursday with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield increasing more than three basis points to 4.371% and the 2-year yield rising slightly to 4.012%. Investors are processing President Trump’s announcement of new 25% tariffs on all foreign-manufactured automobiles, though cars with U.S.-made parts will be exempt. These tariffs add to growing concerns about potential economic impacts amid signs of weakness in the U.S. economy, including consumer confidence hitting a 12-year low. However, the latest unemployment data offered some reassurance, with initial jobless claims at 224,000 for