100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

While gold has taken center stage with returns of 27.5% in 2024, silver presents a compelling investment opportunity that’s often overlooked. Currently trading around $32 per ounce (33% below its 2011 peak), silver shows significant growth potential with the gold-silver ratio at 91.6—well above the 80 threshold that typically signals silver is undervalued. Industrial demand for silver rose to 1.21 billion ounces in 2024 (up 7%), driven by green energy applications, electric vehicles, and AI technology. Despite potential policy shifts under Trump’s administration, global clean energy investments remain strong in regions like China and Europe, suggesting continued demand for this

President Trump plans to implement a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico next week, with a reduced 10% tariff on Canadian energy. Despite being the world’s largest oil producer, the U.S. still imports more crude than it exports, with Canada supplying 60% of imports and Mexico 10%. American refineries process about 16.5 million barrels daily but domestic production only reaches 13 million barrels. Most U.S. refineries were built before 1977 and are designed for heavier crude grades from these neighboring countries rather than the lighter domestic shale oil.

Despite retreating from its recent record high of $2,947, gold appears set for additional gains. State Street’s chief gold strategist George Milling-Stanley forecasts prices between $2,900-$3,100 later this year. Three fundamental drivers support gold’s continued strength: First, central bank purchases have become a consistent feature of the gold market over the past 15 years. These acquisitions account for 10-25% of total end-user demand annually and provide crucial price support during downturns. According to Milling-Stanley, this buying “basically doubled in 2022 to more than 1,000 metric tons.” Second, emerging market investment, particularly in China and India, has surged over the past