100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

Published: 04-17-2025, 02:20 pm | Updated: 04-17-2025, 11:12 am The European Central Bank has reduced interest rates for the seventh consecutive time since last June, cutting the deposit rate by a quarter-point to 2.25% as anticipated by most analysts. The ECB has notably removed the word “restrictive” from its policy stance description, suggesting rates are now considered neutral rather than constraining economic activity. This rate cut comes directly in response to President Trump’s recent announcement of sweeping tariffs, which has shifted the ECB’s focus back toward continued monetary easing. President Christine Lagarde warned that these trade tensions pose significant downside

Published: 04-17-2025, 01:30 pm | Updated: 04-17-2025, 11:06 am The U.S. Treasury bond market is exhibiting alarming behavior that suggests economic trouble ahead, even as stock investors remain seemingly oblivious. On April 7, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned that most CEOs believe we’re already in a recession. Oddly, this statement didn’t drive investors to the usual safe haven of Treasury bonds. Instead, the 10-year Treasury yield experienced a dramatic intraday swing—a rare event previously seen only during major financial disruptions like the 2008 crisis. Bond investors are increasingly distrustful of U.S. economic policy, fearing rising tariffs and returning inflation.

Published: 04-17-2025, 12:30 pm | Updated: 04-17-2025, 10:32 am President Trump escalated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, calling for his termination via Truth Social. Trump demanded immediate interest rate cuts, claiming Powell is “always TOO LATE AND WRONG” and should have followed the European Central Bank’s example of monetary easing. This comes after Powell warned that Trump’s new tariffs (the steepest in over 100 years) would likely cause “higher inflation and slower growth,” creating tension between the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Powell noted these tariffs, some paused for 90 days,