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100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

President Trump’s first 100 days back in office have been marked by significant uncertainty around tariffs, which appear to be his administration’s top economic priority but also the biggest drag on his popularity.

Despite promises of quick deals, negotiations with foreign nations remain unclear, with Trump and his team offering contradictory statements about progress.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently described this approach as “strategic uncertainty,” highlighting a pattern that extends beyond trade to other policy areas where progress has been slower than initially promised.

Gold bars in front of the Federal Reserve building — gold price non-reaction Iran ceasefire
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Gold Didn’t Fall on Iran Peace News. That’s the Point.

Trump called off a planned strike on Iran Monday afternoon. Oil fell over 1%. Gold slipped 0.23%. That’s not a non-event — it’s a signal. The gold price isn’t moving on war or peace news because it’s no longer the war holding it up. It’s the Fed trap: a central bank that can’t raise rates into a $39 trillion debt and can’t cut while inflation runs hot. Until that changes, the floor holds.

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Gold price Iran pause monetary floor: three gold bars stacked on a dark surface against a red financial data display showing U.S. national debt figures
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Trump Called Off the Strike. Gold’s Real Risk Is Still $39 Trillion.

Trump’s decision to pause a planned Iran strike sent gold swinging $45 intraday and crude oil down more than 2% — but the two metals told completely different stories. Oil priced out the geopolitical risk. Gold barely moved. Five briefs explain why: Iran is the catalyst, not the cause. The monetary fundamentals driving gold — $39 trillion in national debt, fifteen years of money creation, central banks in their fifteenth straight year of net buying — don’t get resolved by a phone call.

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What a Gold Revaluation Could Mean for the U.S. and the Dollar
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Analysts Project Gold to Hit $3,500 as Investors Seek Safety in ETFs

Published: 18-03-2025, 03:35 pm | Updated: 18-03-2025, 09:10 am UBS has raised its gold price target to $3,200 per ounce (from $3,000) as retail investors increasingly buy into gold-backed ETFs. This follows gold breaking the $3,000 barrier on March 13, with prices up nearly 40% over the past year. Other financial institutions including Macquarie Group and BNP Paribas have also increased their forecasts, with many analysts now predicting gold could reach $3,500. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s largest physical gold ETF, is up 14% this year as investors seek safety amid trade conflicts, geopolitical instability, and economic concerns.

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Gold Prices Rise on Fed Rate Cut Bets; Silver Hits 13-Year Peak
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UBS Bullish on Gold: Price Target Elevated to $3,200 as ETF Inflows Accelerate

Published: 18-03-2025, 02:45 pm | Updated: 18-03-2025, 09:08 am UBS has raised its gold price target to $3,200/oz (up from $3,000/oz) as gold ETF inflows accelerate. This increase reflects growing investor demand for defensive assets amid escalating uncertainties, continued central bank buying, and unclear Fed policy direction. UBS maintains its preference for gold, recommending investors use price pullbacks as buying opportunities and continue allocating approximately 5% to gold in USD-balanced portfolios for optimal long-term diversification.

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