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100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

President Trump’s first 100 days back in office have been marked by significant uncertainty around tariffs, which appear to be his administration’s top economic priority but also the biggest drag on his popularity.

Despite promises of quick deals, negotiations with foreign nations remain unclear, with Trump and his team offering contradictory statements about progress.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently described this approach as “strategic uncertainty,” highlighting a pattern that extends beyond trade to other policy areas where progress has been slower than initially promised.

A brass balance scale with gold bars on the left pan outweighing papers labeled Rate Hike, ETF Outflows, and Dollar on the right — illustrating State Street's gold forecast that structural tailwinds outweigh tactical headwinds heading into 2027.
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State Street Predicts $5,500 Gold by Q1 2027: Is the Dip Over?

State Street’s July 2026 Monthly Gold Monitor targets $5,000 per ounce into early 2027, with a 70% probability baseline range of $4,750–$5,500. Here is the structural case behind the forecast — record global debt, central bank buying, and a stock-bond correlation breakdown — and what a gold recovery means for silver’s high-beta setup.

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Oil refinery at dusk reflecting financial price chart in glass panel — gold price correction July 2026
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Gold Fell 3.4% This Week. The Long-Term Case Didn’t.

Gold fell 3.4% in the week ending July 17 — its largest weekly decline since June 1. Six days of U.S.-Iran escalation drove oil up 12%, repricing Fed rate-hike odds and pressuring gold to $3,968. Banks cut their 2026 average forecasts. Asia’s physical buyers did the opposite — and the structural case for gold ownership remains intact.

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HSBC: U.S. Recession, Stagflation, and Debt Concerns Could All Boost Gold

Published: 04-01-2025, 03:35 pm | Updated: 04-01-2025, 10:01 am HSBC sees three ways gold could strengthen during what they call a “US-driven” market correction: 1. U.S. Recession Scenario: If recession fears grow, investors would move away from risky assets. This would weaken the dollar and lower Treasury yields, pushing more investors toward gold as a safe haven. 2. U.S. Stagflation Scenario: If the economy faces both weak growth and high inflation at the same time, gold could see even stronger gains. Under these conditions, Treasury yields would hit a floor while risky assets decline. 3. U.S. Debt Concerns: If the

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Market Anxiety Propels Gold to 40% Annual Gain Amid Trade War Fears

Published: 04-01-2025, 02:55 pm | Updated: 04-01-2025, 09:57 am Gold prices have reached unprecedented heights, up a substantial 40% increase from a year ago and a 19% rise since the beginning of 2025. This surge comes as global markets continue to decline due to growing anxiety over President Trump’s protectionist trade policies, with his latest round of tariffs scheduled for implementation on Wednesday—a day he’s dubbed “Liberation Day.” Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven during this period of economic uncertainty. Market confidence has been steadily eroding since the start of the year, with both businesses and

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Universal vs. Reciprocal: Trump’s Trade Team Divided Over Tariff Strategy

Published: 04-01-2025, 01:55 pm | Updated: 04-01-2025, 09:44 am President Trump has confirmed he’s decided on his “Liberation Day” tariff plan but hasn’t revealed the details ahead of Wednesday’s announcement. The White House is divided between two approaches: – A universal 20% tariff on almost all imports – A “reciprocal” country-by-country approach with different rates that could be negotiated This split reflects Trump’s competing goals for tariffs: – Generate revenue (possibly $600 billion annually according to adviser Peter Navarro) to help offset tax cuts – Use tariffs as leverage to pressure other countries to lower their duties or make policy

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