100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

President Trump has proposed a “gold card” program offering permanent U.S. residency to wealthy foreign individuals and companies willing to pay $5 million. Trump claims selling a million cards could generate $5 trillion toward reducing the national debt. The plan would replace or supplement the existing EB-5 program, which currently grants green cards for investments of $800,000 to $1.1 million. Immigration experts have expressed mixed reactions – attorney Reaz Jafri reports immediate interest from clients but doubts the program will attract enough participants to meaningfully reduce the national debt. Armand Arton of Arton Capital called it a “fantastic initiative” but

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned that interest rates might need to go up, not down, to fight inflation. Speaking to a local club in Virginia, he explained that several economic shifts could make inflation harder to control in the future. For years, certain factors helped keep prices stable, but now the economy faces “headwinds” from problems with global supply chains, fewer working-age Americans, and higher government spending on aging populations and defense. While these challenges aren’t certain, Barkin believes the Fed should be careful about cutting rates too quickly. He reminded listeners about the 1970s, when the Fed eased

On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below the 3-month yield, creating an “inverted yield curve”—a phenomenon with a strong historical track record of forecasting economic downturns within 12-18 months. The New York Fed monitors this relationship closely, even publishing monthly updates with recession probability estimates. At January’s end, that probability was just 23%, but February’s dramatic yield relationship shift will likely increase these odds. This inversion typically occurs when investors anticipate the Fed will need to cut short-term rates to counter future economic weakness. While the previous inversion in October 2022 hasn’t resulted in a recession after 2½ years,