100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

Commodities rose 4.3% last month, performing better than stocks (+3.1%) and bonds (+1.1%). Gold led the way, reaching a record high of $2,950 per ounce and helping precious metals jump 7.2%. Investors bought gold because they’re worried about new tariffs, and central banks are purchasing gold at more than twice their 2012-2021 average. Farm products grew 6.6% due to bad weather in South America. Wheat prices went up 8.7% after poor harvest forecasts in Argentina and Europe, while coffee prices climbed because of drought in Brazil threatening crops. Industrial metals increased 2.1% despite new 25% U.S. tariffs on steel and

Bitcoin has dropped below the $90,000 mark, falling approximately 3% to $88,901 amid mixed performance in U.S. markets. This decline represents a 47% retracement of Bitcoin’s post-election rally that ran from November 5 to its record close on December 17. Despite this selloff, market analysts note that from a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains in relatively strong territory, with the current correction not yet reaching key Fibonacci retracement levels.

The global precious metals market is experiencing its most significant transformation since the 1970s, driven by political uncertainty, tariff threats, and unprecedented logistical challenges. Greg Frith of StoneX highlights how Trump’s America First policy and potential tariffs have created significant uncertainty, prompting major banks to stockpile physical gold in New York’s Comex vaults—similar to behavior during the early pandemic. This defensive positioning has fundamentally altered the relationship between London’s physical markets and New York’s futures markets. The most notable shift has been from contango (future prices exceeding spot prices) to backwardation, as gold rapidly moves from London to New York,