100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

Economic experts are increasingly warning about recession risks in the US economy two months into Donald Trump’s presidency. Major financial institutions have significantly raised their recession probability estimates—JP Morgan now forecasts a 40% chance (up from 30%), Moody’s Analytics projects 35% (up from 15%), and Goldman Sachs has increased its estimate to 20% (from 15%). These assessments come as the S&P 500 has fallen to its lowest point since September, reflecting growing investor concern. The market instability primarily stems from Trump’s implementation of tariffs on imports from America’s three largest trading partners, with threats of more to come. Despite inflation

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, with Brent crude climbing above $70 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate reaching around $67. Two main factors supported this increase: First, the US Energy Information Administration significantly lowered its forecast for global oil oversupply. The agency reduced its prediction for 2025 and cut its 2026 surplus outlook in half, based on expectations that Iran and Venezuela will produce less oil. Second, February’s US inflation report showed consumer prices rising at their slowest pace in four months. This positive economic news boosted investor confidence in riskier assets like oil after months of disappointing inflation data.

US inflation cooled more than expected in February, with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.8% annually (down from January’s 3%) and 0.2% for the month (down from January’s 0.5%). This improvement came largely from flat grocery prices and falling gas costs, while egg prices still rose 10.4% for the month but at a slower pace than January’s 15.2% increase. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) also slowed to 3.1% annually. Despite this positive news, economists warn this cooling may be temporary as President Trump’s expanding trade war and tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods are expected to push prices