100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

President Trump’s unexpected focus on auditing Fort Knox, mentioned multiple times during an Air Force One press briefing, has raised eyebrows among market watchers. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed that the gold is regularly audited and “all present and accounted for,” the president’s interest might signal a more significant financial maneuver. The key lies in the dramatic disparity between Treasury’s official gold valuation of $42 per ounce and current market prices approaching $3,000. A revaluation to market prices could instantly generate approximately $750 billion in Treasury assets, though Bessent has dismissed suggestions this might lead to creating a

Gold jewelry demand in India has fallen significantly since January, with the weakness continuing into February. Meanwhile investment interest remains robust through bars, coins, and ETFs, which saw record inflows in January. The Reserve Bank of India has returned to gold buying, adding 2.8 tonnes to its reserves after a December pause. The market is seeing structural changes in consumer behavior, with many buyers choosing to exchange old gold for new jewelry or sell existing holdings to lock in profits. This shift has created challenges for retailers, leading to a liquidity crunch in the industry and causing domestic gold prices

Research by Duke University’s Campbell Harvey and former TCW manager Claude Erb suggests gold’s current rally may be setting up investors for disappointment. Their analysis shows gold’s price-to-CPI ratio is now at 9-to-1, even higher than the 7-to-1 ratio that preceded gold’s 50% price drop after 2012. The researchers challenge two popular arguments for gold investment: its effectiveness as an inflation hedge and its role as protection against geopolitical risks. While gold has outperformed inflation for the past 20 years, the study found that gold only maintains its purchasing power over very long periods – perhaps a century – and