100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

Macquarie Group analysts, led by Marcus Garvey, forecast gold could surge to an unprecedented $3,500 per ounce during the third quarter, with an average price of $3,150. Currently trading around $2,940, gold has already gained 12% this year, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about President Trump’s tariff policies. The analysts attribute gold’s strength to investors and institutions increasingly valuing its lack of credit or counterparty risk. The precious metal is expected to find additional support from a worsening U.S. budget outlook that signals potential inflation increases, making gold more attractive as a hedge. Despite elevated prices, the physical market

UBS Investment Bank, through analyst Joni Teves, has significantly raised their gold price forecast to $3,100/oz by year-end 2025. While the fundamental narrative around gold hasn’t changed dramatically, the potential for upside growth has increased substantially. Teves explains that investors are flocking to gold primarily due to the combination of slowing economic growth prospects and higher inflation expectations. She emphasizes that gold presents a compelling case as a portfolio diversifier in the current environment, which features multiple overlapping risks – from economic growth concerns to geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures. This bullish outlook comes amid increased market interest in precious

Economic experts are increasingly warning about recession risks in the US economy two months into Donald Trump’s presidency. Major financial institutions have significantly raised their recession probability estimates—JP Morgan now forecasts a 40% chance (up from 30%), Moody’s Analytics projects 35% (up from 15%), and Goldman Sachs has increased its estimate to 20% (from 15%). These assessments come as the S&P 500 has fallen to its lowest point since September, reflecting growing investor concern. The market instability primarily stems from Trump’s implementation of tariffs on imports from America’s three largest trading partners, with threats of more to come. Despite inflation