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Following Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear program, the U.S. Treasury bond market experienced an unexpected selloff on Friday, pushing yields modestly higher. While investors initially sought the safety of government bonds late Thursday, this “safe-haven” demand quickly reversed. According to BMO Capital Markets strategists, the shift occurred as traders became more concerned about inflation risks, particularly from rising oil prices. The market found itself caught between two opposing forces: the typical flight to safety during geopolitical tensions versus worries about renewed inflation.

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President Trump’s tariffs have had surprisingly little impact on inflation, with prices rising just 0.1% in May. While some imported goods saw increases—canned fruits and vegetables (1.9%), major appliances (4.3%), and coffee (1.2%)—overall inflation remains minimal. Three factors explain this: – Companies stockpiled imports before tariffs took effect – Price increases take time to work through the economy – Weak consumer spending limits businesses’ ability to raise prices Economists are split on what’s next. Some expect tariff impacts to emerge soon, while others believe weak consumer demand could actually lead to deflation—similar to the 1930s Smoot-Hawley tariffs. The Federal Reserve...

Consumer confidence in the US economy showed significant improvement in June, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index. The gauge jumped 8.3 points to 60.5, exceeding all economist forecasts and marking the first increase this year. The key driver was a sharp decline in inflation expectations—consumers now anticipate a 5.1% price increase over the next year, compared to 6.6% in May. Long-term inflation expectations (5-10 years) remained relatively stable at 4.1%. The survey revealed broad-based optimism, with the expectations index soaring 10.5 points to 58.4 and current conditions rising to 63.7. Sentiment improved across all political affiliations, with...

Oil prices jumped 8% on Friday after Israel conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, with Brent crude reaching nearly $74 per barrel. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated Israel would continue strikes “for as many days as it takes,” while President Trump urged Iran to negotiate over its nuclear program. As OPEC’s third-largest producer, Iran’s oil exports of 1.6-1.8 million barrels daily face potential disruption, creating uncertainty in global energy markets.

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The Quiet Bank Run in Gold

Gold surged 1.7% to $3,439.79 per ounce on Friday, nearing its April record of $3,500.05, as Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and missile factories sparked fears of wider Middle East conflict. The precious metal posted a 4% weekly gain. Two factors drove the rally: escalating geopolitical tensions and softer U.S. inflation data that boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold typically thrives during uncertainty and when interest rates fall. Major banks remain bullish on gold’s outlook. Goldman Sachs forecasts $3,700 by end-2025, while Bank of America sees $4,000 within 12 months, both citing strong central bank buying. Despite...

Silver vs. Gold: Which Precious Metal Holds the Edge in 2025?

Wall Street traders are turning to precious metals as uncertainty over trade policies drives investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold has surged 27.5% this year, silver is up 24%, and platinum has skyrocketed 36%, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500’s modest 3% gain. The metals rally reflects investors’ search for alternatives amid tariff concerns and a weakening dollar. Gold remains the primary safe haven, hitting near-record levels above $3,300 per troy ounce, driven by both investor demand and central bank purchases. Silver has benefited from its dual role as both a precious metal and industrial commodity used in solar panels and data...

Perth Mint Gold Scandal: Mint Regains Global Confidence

Gold experienced a significant rally following Israel’s military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, with prices jumping as much as 1.7% before moderating. Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to continue operations until the “threat” is eliminated, while Iran responded with drone attacks and promises of severe retaliation, including potential action against U.S. targets despite America’s non-involvement. The precious metal, trading around $80 below its April record of $3,500.10 per ounce, has gained 30% year-to-date. This impressive performance reflects multiple factors: hedge-seeking against President Trump’s trade policies, ongoing Ukraine tensions, and robust central bank demand. Recent weak U.S. economic data showing muted inflation...

Gold Price Record $3400 for First Time in HISTORY

UBS analysts remain bullish on gold despite its recent price consolidation after reaching a record $3,500 in April. The bank cites ongoing uncertainty around U.S. tariffs, fiscal policy, and Federal Reserve decisions as factors that make gold an attractive portfolio diversifier. Strong demand from central banks, ETF inflows, and physical investment continues to support gold’s outlook, with the current pause viewed as healthy for future price increases.

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The Quiet Bank Run in Gold

TD Securities has taken a bullish stance on gold, opening a tactical long position with an ambitious one-month price target of $3,650 per ounce. The investment bank views gold as a low-risk safe haven asset that can provide protection against escalating tensions in the Middle East and potential regional instability.

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Fed Takes Conservative Stance on 2025 Rate Cuts

Recent economic data strengthens the case for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts beginning in September. Thursday’s reports revealed two key developments: inflation appears to be moderating toward the Fed’s 2% target, and the labor market shows signs of softening. Producer prices increased 2.6% year-over-year in May, and economists estimate that core inflation likely rose just 0.12% month-over-month. On the employment front, while initial jobless claims remained steady at 248,000, continuing claims jumped to 1.951 million—the highest since November 2021. This suggests unemployed workers are having more difficulty finding new jobs. The Fed is expected to maintain current rates at its...

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