Gold and Silver Pull Back — Smart Money Buys When Others Wait 
Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
September 12th, 2025
Inflation Ticks Higher, But Fed Cut Still On Track
August inflation came in slightly warmer than hoped, with headline CPI rising 2.9% annually versus 2.7% in July. The monthly gain of 0.4% exceeded forecasts, driven partly by rising energy costs. Gasoline prices jumped 0.6% for the month while grocery bills continued their stubborn climb, keeping pressure on household budgets.
However, the numbers aren’t hot enough to derail the Federal Reserve’s plans. Core inflation held steady at 3.1% yearly and 0.3% monthly – exactly where economists expected. Markets barely budged on the news, with traders still betting on a quarter-point rate cut next week. The Fed appears more worried about softening job markets than modest price pressures — a shift that’s music to gold investors’ ears.
Gold Eyes Fourth Straight Weekly Gain
Gold is heading for its fourth straight weekly gain, holding steady above $3,650 an ounce and hovering near Tuesday’s all-time high of $3,673.95. What’s remarkable? The metal is climbing even as U.S. bond yields remain firm – typically a headwind for non-yielding assets. President Trump’s recent calls for lower interest rates have added fuel to the rally, with December futures closing in on $3,700.
Central banks continue their buying spree while ETF flows turn positive again. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo notes this unusual divergence signals that traditional market relationships are breaking down as uncertainty grows, with the firm now targeting $3,900 by mid-2025. But it’s not just inflation fears driving this rally anymore…
Labor Market Weakness Takes Center Stage at Fed
The Federal Reserve has a new priority: employment. After years of laser focus on taming inflation, policymakers are shifting their attention to cooling labor markets. Weekly jobless claims just surged to 263,000 – the highest since October 2021 – while August payrolls grew by just 22,000, averaging a meager 29,000 over three months.
A massive downward revision shows nearly a million fewer jobs were created through March than initially reported. RSM’s Joe Brusuelas warns this creates a tricky balancing act: “That’s not really where you want to be just before you’re going to start a rate-cutting cycle.” For precious metals investors, this weakness virtually guarantees aggressive Fed easing ahead – even if it means taking bigger risks.
Fed’s Confidence Cracks as ‘Fear Meter’ Climbs
Behind closed doors, Federal Reserve officials are increasingly worried about economic stagnation rather than stagflation. Their internal “fear meter” is rising as employment data sets off alarms – the breadth of hiring across industries has narrowed to pre-recession levels, while unemployment for Black workers jumped from 6% to 7.5% since February. Job openings are down 27% from 2023 levels.
The good news? Tariff pass-through to prices has been more muted than feared, giving the Fed room to focus on the labor market. Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta argues for a 50-basis-point cut, though most expect 25. Translation: The Fed may choose growth over inflation fighting — historically gold’s favorite scenario. Wall Street is already positioning for what comes next…
UBS Lifts Gold Price Target to $3,800
UBS just raised its gold forecast to $3,800 by late 2025, joining a chorus of bullish Wall Street predictions. The Swiss bank points to an irresistible combination: continued central bank accumulation, weakening U.S. growth, positive ETF flows returning after months of outflows, and structural shifts like de-dollarization.
China is even streamlining its gold import/export licensing system, potentially unleashing more demand. Even if inflation cools, UBS argues that mounting government deficits and tight physical supply will keep pushing prices higher. When major institutions make these calls, it often becomes self-fulfilling as portfolio managers adjust allocations accordingly.
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