Breaking the Rules: Why Gold Is Ignoring Traditional Market Signals in 2025

Financial markets are unusually calm, with volatility measures for stocks, bonds, and currencies all hitting yearly lows. The VIX “fear gauge” has dropped to its lowest level since December, while Treasury volatility is at early-2022 lows. This calm seems surprising given ongoing risks: geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, and Trump’s Fed criticism. But experts cite three key reasons for the low volatility: – large cash reserves ready to buy any dips – a stronger-than-expected economy avoiding recession – and investors betting Trump will back down from extreme threats (his typical pattern) With the S&P 500 hitting new records and inflation improving,

Investors are enthusiastically buying risky assets across all markets following encouraging US inflation data, with Wall Street hitting record highs and volatility measures collapsing to yearly lows. Despite concerns about Trump’s tariffs, traders are betting that falling interest rates will boost an already resilient economy. Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, with Treasury Secretary Bessent suggesting rates could drop 150-175 basis points. The optimism is driven by strong tech earnings, which accounted for 90% of S&P 500 profit growth, and a general “what tariffs, who cares?” attitude among investors.

Gold prices are consolidating near $3,355-$3,360 (spot) and $3,410 (futures) as investors position for a potential stagflation scenario—a combination of slowing economic growth and persistent inflation. Following disappointing U.S. jobs data that showed only 73,000 jobs added versus 150,000 expected, markets now price an 81% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. Citigroup has raised its 3-month gold target to $3,500, viewing stagflation as the base case rather than a tail risk. The upcoming CPI report on Tuesday will be crucial, with a softer inflation reading likely to push gold through resistance at $3,450.

In a statement on Bloomberg TV, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for substantial interest rate reductions, arguing that current rates are overly restrictive for the U.S. economy. Bessent specifically stated that rates should be 150-175 basis points lower than current levels, which would represent a major shift in monetary policy. He anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate a cutting cycle beginning with a potential 50 basis point reduction in September. This marks a notable divergence from the Fed’s recent cautious stance and suggests the Trump administration is pushing for more aggressive monetary accommodation to support economic growth and market conditions.

Despite record-breaking tariff revenue in July 2025, the U.S. budget deficit still climbed 20% compared to last year, according to Treasury Department data. While customs revenue surged 273% (or $21 billion) due to President Trump’s import taxes, federal spending continues to outpace government revenues. The deficit increase is driven by rising interest payments on the $37 trillion national debt and cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security. Although the Congressional Budget Office estimates tariffs could reduce deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years, economists warn this comes with trade-offs including slower economic growth and higher inflation.