After a remarkable year that saw gold prices surge nearly 30% and hit record highs, Citigroup analysts are calling for a significant pullback in the precious metal. The bank forecasts gold will retreat from its current $3,388 per ounce to a range of $2,500-$2,700 by the second half of 2026. This bearish outlook stems from expectations of declining investment demand as global growth improves and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates from restrictive to neutral levels.
Citi presents three scenarios: a 60% probability base case where gold consolidates above $3,000 before declining, a 20% bull case targeting new records on tariff and geopolitical concerns, and a 20% bear case anticipating a faster selloff. The predicted reversal would end a rally fueled by Trump’s trade policies, Middle East tensions, US deficit worries, and consistent central bank buying. Interestingly, while bearish on gold, Citi remains very bullish on industrial metals like aluminum and copper.