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Economists now expect slower US growth in 2025 – just 2% for the year instead of the previously predicted 2.3%, according to Bloomberg’s latest survey. The first three months of 2025 look particularly weak, with growth expected at only 1.2%, down from earlier forecasts of 2.2%.
This slowdown is happening because both consumers and businesses are spending less money due to uncertainty about President Trump’s changing trade policies. At the same time, inflation is expected to reach 2.8% by year-end, higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Because of this persistent inflation, the Fed is being cautious about cutting interest rates further.
Businesses are importing more goods now (up 12.9% in early 2025) to stock up before potential tariffs hit. Both consumer and business confidence surveys show growing pessimism, and economists now see a 30% chance of recession within the next year, up from 25% in the previous survey.
