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Economists Lower 2025 Growth Expectations as Inflation Concerns Linger

Economists now expect slower US growth in 2025 – just 2% for the year instead of the previously predicted 2.3%, according to Bloomberg’s latest survey. The first three months of 2025 look particularly weak, with growth expected at only 1.2%, down from earlier forecasts of 2.2%.

This slowdown is happening because both consumers and businesses are spending less money due to uncertainty about President Trump’s changing trade policies. At the same time, inflation is expected to reach 2.8% by year-end, higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Because of this persistent inflation, the Fed is being cautious about cutting interest rates further.

Businesses are importing more goods now (up 12.9% in early 2025) to stock up before potential tariffs hit. Both consumer and business confidence surveys show growing pessimism, and economists now see a 30% chance of recession within the next year, up from 25% in the previous survey.

Gold portfolio allocation shift: handwritten notepad showing 60/40 crossed out and replaced with 60/20/20
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Gold Portfolio Allocation: Why Wall Street Is Rewriting the 60/40

For forty years, the 60/40 portfolio was the default prescription for the serious investor. That model worked because stocks and bonds moved in opposite directions when markets got scared. That relationship is broken — and the institutions that built trillion-dollar businesses on it are now replacing bonds with gold.

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A 1,000-troy-ounce industrial silver bar stamped 999.0 fine silver, assayed in London, resting on a wooden pallet inside a commercial warehouse loading bay — illustrating the physical precious metals storage infrastructure at the center of the SILVER Act precious metals reform debate.
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What Does the SILVER Act Mean for Precious Metals Investors?

On May 21, 2026, the Senate introduced the SILVER Act — the System Integrity through Licensed Vault Expansion and Resilience Act — requiring at least two approved precious metals storage facilities in each US time zone. Here’s what it does, why it has bipartisan support, and what it means for anyone holding physical gold or silver.

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