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Fed Slashes Growth Forecast, Raises Inflation Outlook Amid Stagflation Fears

Federal Reserve officials have significantly lowered their economic growth projections to below 2% while simultaneously increasing their inflation outlook.

Growth is now expected at just 1.7% (down from December’s 2.1% projection), while core inflation is forecast at 2.8% annually (up from 2.5%). This combination of slowing growth and rising inflation has sparked stagflation concerns.

Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that inflation “has started to move up” partly due to tariffs, and noted “significant concerns about downside risks” despite an overall “solid picture.”

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% and still projects two rate cuts for 2025, though their stance has become more hawkish with four members now favoring no changes to rates this year, up from just one member in January. President Trump’s aggressive tariffs are expected to raise prices and reduce consumer spending.

American manufacturing floor with workers operating heavy press machinery and a whiteboard showing rising input costs, illustrating ISM prices paid gold market implications
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Factory Costs Hit 82.1. That Number Is Now Working for Your Gold.

The ISM Manufacturing Prices-Paid Index hit 82.1 in May — the second-highest reading since 2022 and the 20th consecutive month of rising factory costs. Most headlines covered the manufacturing boom. Almost nobody explained what the prices-paid number means for the Fed, for inflation this summer, and for the structural case for holding gold.

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Gold Price History: From $35 to $4,500 in 100 Years
Articles

Gold Price History: From $35 to $4,500 in 100 Years

Gold went from $35 in 1971 to around $4,500 today — a 12,000% gain since the gold standard ended. Meanwhile, the dollar lost 96.9% of its purchasing power over the same period. These are not two separate stories. This is the complete gold price history: decade by decade, the real cause behind every major move, and what a century of data tells investors right now.

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Gold at $4,500: What Fort Knox, China, and Silver Are Telling You
News

Gold at $4,500: What Fort Knox, China, and Silver Are Telling You

Fort Knox holds $662 billion in gold not independently audited since 1953. China has bought gold for 13 straight months. Manufacturers are signaling inflation isn’t finished. Fourteen states just made gold and silver constitutional money. And silver is outperforming gold 2:1 today. Five stories. One through-line. Here’s what they mean for your metals.

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Silver Has Two Engines. Stagflation Is the One Condition That Fires Both at Once.
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Silver Has Two Engines. Stagflation Is the One Condition That Fires Both at Once.

Most assets have a simple relationship with stagflation. Silver doesn’t. It answers to two entirely separate demand pools — industrial and monetary — that in most macro environments pull against each other. Stagflation is the rare condition where both pull in the same direction at once. Here’s why that matters for investors holding physical silver today.

Read More »

Latest News

American manufacturing floor with workers operating heavy press machinery and a whiteboard showing rising input costs, illustrating ISM prices paid gold market implications
News

Factory Costs Hit 82.1. That Number Is Now Working for Your Gold.

The ISM Manufacturing Prices-Paid Index hit 82.1 in May — the second-highest reading since 2022 and the 20th consecutive month of rising factory costs. Most headlines covered the manufacturing boom. Almost nobody explained what the prices-paid number means for the Fed, for inflation this summer, and for the structural case for holding gold.

Read More »
Gold at $4,500: What Fort Knox, China, and Silver Are Telling You
News

Gold at $4,500: What Fort Knox, China, and Silver Are Telling You

Fort Knox holds $662 billion in gold not independently audited since 1953. China has bought gold for 13 straight months. Manufacturers are signaling inflation isn’t finished. Fourteen states just made gold and silver constitutional money. And silver is outperforming gold 2:1 today. Five stories. One through-line. Here’s what they mean for your metals.

Read More »
Silver Has Two Engines. Stagflation Is the One Condition That Fires Both at Once.
News

Silver Has Two Engines. Stagflation Is the One Condition That Fires Both at Once.

Most assets have a simple relationship with stagflation. Silver doesn’t. It answers to two entirely separate demand pools — industrial and monetary — that in most macro environments pull against each other. Stagflation is the rare condition where both pull in the same direction at once. Here’s why that matters for investors holding physical silver today.

Read More »

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