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Global Currency Markets Rocked by German Spending Surge and Escalating Trade Wars

Global markets saw major changes Wednesday as two powerful forces came together: Trump’s expanding trade war and a dramatic shift in German spending policy.

The dollar fell to three-month lows, dropping 2.3% in just three days—the biggest fall since late 2022. This came as new US tariffs hit imports from Canada, Mexico, and China on Tuesday. Both Canada and China quickly hit back with their own tariffs, and Mexico promised to do the same.

In Europe, German political parties made a historic decision by agreeing to a massive €500 billion infrastructure fund. They also completely changed their borrowing rules—a move that Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid called “one of the largest fiscal shifts in post-war history.” One analyst described it as “a really big bazooka.” This news sent German 30-year bond yields soaring by nearly a quarter percentage point, their biggest one-day jump since October 1998. The euro reached a four-month high against the dollar, while European stocks rose 1.2% to break records.

At the same time, China’s National People’s Congress kept its growth target at 5% for 2025 but increased its budget deficit from 3% to 4% of GDP to fight against US tariff effects. Oil prices fell for the third straight day, hitting six-month lows as traders worried about weaker energy demand from trade tensions and OPEC+ plans to increase production in April.

Gold at $4,480: Physical Demand Hits a 50-Year Milestone
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Gold at $4,480: Physical Demand Hits a 50-Year Milestone

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Gold at $4,480: Physical Demand Hits a 50-Year Milestone
News

Gold at $4,480: Physical Demand Hits a 50-Year Milestone

Central banks reshape gold markets through the most concentrated sovereign buying in decades — but that’s only one of five forces moving gold right now. Physical investment is overtaking jewelry demand for the first time on record. Russia’s figures don’t add up. China just hit the brakes. Here’s what’s driving the market.

Read More »
Gold Holds $4,481 With Rate Hike Risk Rising. Here's the NFP Decision Map.
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Gold Holds $4,481 With Rate Hike Risk Rising. Here’s the NFP Decision Map.

Gold is holding near $4,481 with rate hike risk rising — a divergence that, in any prior rate cycle, would have already sent gold lower. Tomorrow’s May jobs report is the last major data point before Warsh’s first FOMC meeting June 16–17. Here’s the three-scenario decision map: what a hot print, an in-line print, and a soft miss each mean for gold — and why the Fed’s policy trap makes the structural case for sound money regardless of Friday’s number.

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