Gold Advances as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Strengthen on Inflation Data

Despite record-breaking tariff revenue in July 2025, the U.S. budget deficit still climbed 20% compared to last year, according to Treasury Department data. While customs revenue surged 273% (or $21 billion) due to President Trump’s import taxes, federal spending continues to outpace government revenues. The deficit increase is driven by rising interest payments on the $37 trillion national debt and cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security. Although the Congressional Budget Office estimates tariffs could reduce deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years, economists warn this comes with trade-offs including slower economic growth and higher inflation.

The U.S. government’s budget deficit surged nearly 20% to $291 billion in July 2025, despite collecting $21 billion more in tariff revenue from President Trump’s trade policies. While customs duties jumped from $8 billion to $28 billion compared to last year, government spending outpaced revenue gains. Total outlays hit a record $630 billion for the month, growing 10% year-over-year, while receipts only increased 2% to $338 billion. For the fiscal year through July, the deficit stands at $1.629 trillion, up 7% from the previous year.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the Federal Reserve should consider a larger 50 basis-point rate cut at its September meeting, arguing that revised job data shows the Fed could have started cutting rates earlier. In a Fox Business interview, Bessent noted that weaker employment figures for May and June only became apparent after the Fed’s July meeting. He also discussed Trump’s Fed board nominee Stephen Miran, expressing hope he’ll be confirmed in time for the September meeting, and mentioned that the search for Jerome Powell’s successor remains wide open.

Gold prices rose on Wednesday, climbing 0.6% to $3,363.61 per ounce, as investors increasingly bet on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. The rally was driven by mild inflation data and a weakening dollar, which made gold more affordable for international buyers. Markets are now pricing in a 96% chance of a rate cut next month, with gold benefiting as a traditional safe-haven asset that performs well in low-interest environments.