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Gold Market Sees Opposing Forces: Chinese Buying vs. Indian Hesitancy

Chinese gold demand is rising as trade war fears push investors toward this safe-haven asset. Chinese dealers now charge $6-$13 per ounce above global prices – a notable shift from last week when gold traded between a $4 discount and $1 premium.

Analyst Ross Norman explains this as a “two-way market” where uncertainty brings in new buyers while others sell to lock in profits from record prices. New gold bars are selling particularly well.

Meanwhile, Indian buyers are holding back, offering discounts up to $20 per ounce (improved from $33 discounts last week) as they wait for prices to stabilize. Indian gold prices reached 89,700 rupees per 10 grams on Friday after hitting an all-time high of 91,696 rupees earlier, marking a 15% increase in 2025.

Central banks are likely to continue buying gold due to concerns about President Trump’s policies, including his new plan for a 10% minimum tariff on most US imports and higher duties on goods from many countries.

A brass balance scale with gold bars on the left pan outweighing papers labeled Rate Hike, ETF Outflows, and Dollar on the right — illustrating State Street's gold forecast that structural tailwinds outweigh tactical headwinds heading into 2027.
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