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Gold Nears $4,000, HSBC Calls More Upside Ahead

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
October 6th, 2025 

 

Gold Smashes Through $3,900 as Safe‑Haven Demand Intensifies 

Gold rocketed past $3,900 per ounce for the first time ever, peaking near $3,944 in intraday trade. The surge was driven by a rare confluence: a U.S. government shutdown, political stress in Japan that weakened the yen, and rising expectations that the Fed will ease further.  

ETF flows and central bank buying added fuel, while spillover demand from silver and palladium underscored the broader strength in precious metals. And gold isn’t the only asset pushing record highs…

 

Bitcoin Joins the Flight to Safety — But It’s Not the Same Bet 

Bitcoin also hit a record high, surpassing $125,000 over the weekend. Analysts suggest crypto’s surge is being fueled by a growing distrust of fiat systems and speculative momentum. While both gold and bitcoin are touted as alternatives to traditional finance, they behave very differently under stress. Gold’s 5,000-year track record as a store of value gives it a credibility that crypto is still earning. 

Some investors are diversifying across both — but gold’s price stability and physicality remain unmatched for those seeking a proven hedge.

 

Consumers Still Spending, But Cracks Are Appearing 

Holiday online sales in the U.S. are expected to rise 5.3% year-over-year, reaching $253.4 billion. But this uptick is propped up, in part, by growing consumer stress and increasing reliance on credit mechanisms. 

Despite softening labor market signals and rising prices from tariffs and inflation, shoppers are leaning into buy now, pay later (BNPL) schemes to keep consumption afloat. Adobe projects BNPL usage will expand 11% this season, making up $20.2 billion of total spend. 

This isn’t purely a health check on consumption — it’s a warning shot. Households are pushing into debt to maintain discretionary outlays. If wage growth falters or interest rates tick upward, we could see higher delinquencies, weakened demand, or abrupt cutbacks.

 

Government Shutdown Drags On, Pressuring Markets 

The U.S. is now in its 5th day of a partial government shutdown, after funding legislation fell short on September 30. Key economic data — from inflation to payrolls — is stalled, complicating how the Fed makes decisions.  

The longer the shutdown drags on, the higher the risk to growth, confidence, and credit ratings. Some agencies warn that current political dysfunction could pressure the U.S.’s debt standing.  

Treasury yields are volatile — inflation fears and rate expectations push them up and down in turn, putting stress on both equities and bond markets. Still, many analysts assess this all through one central variable: where gold goes next.

 

Gold’s Next Milestone? HSBC Eyes $4,000 Amid Market Stress 

HSBC’s latest note argues gold could trade above $4,000 per ounce in the near term, driven by intensifying geopolitical friction, fiscal instability in the U.S., and growing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s institutional autonomy. The bank points out that central banks and institutional investors are increasingly stepping into non‑dollar assets to diversify away from sovereign risk.  

HSBC warns, however, that if the Fed cuts interest rates less aggressively than markets expect, the rally could stall.  

This forecast is significant — when a major global bank leans into a four‑figure price target, it adds institutional weight to the bullish narrative. For investors hedging uncertainty, this is more than conjecture: it’s a signal that gold may no longer be a fringe hedge but a core pillar of capital preservation. 

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