Gold Just Erased Its Entire Post-Election Rally 

Published: 11-12-2026, 08:49 am

Gold is trading near $3,940 an ounce Thursday morning. That number matters for one reason. It erases almost the entire rally gold built after Democrats swept the November 3 midterm elections. In fact, the metal closed at $3,929.46 the day before results arrived, then climbed to $4,143.74 by November 9. Now it has given nearly all of that gain back in three straight sessions. Silver moved the same way, slipping to near $50.93 this morning, which keeps the gold-silver ratio close to flat for the whole round trip. 

Key Takeaways 

• Gold closed at $3,929.46 on November 3, the last session before midterm results, then rallied 5.5% to an intraday high of $4,143.74 on November 9. 

• This morning, gold trades near $3,940. That is just 0.3% above its pre-election level and almost 5% below the rally peak. 

• A hot October inflation report, released Tuesday, triggered the reversal, as traders responded by pricing in more Federal Reserve rate hikes. 

• Five Fed officials speak today, ahead of Friday’s producer price report, so today gives markets their first real test of whether the hawkish repricing holds. 

Why Did Gold Give Back the Entire Election Rally? 

The rally rested on one bet: that a Democratic sweep would raise the odds of fiscal expansion and political friction in Washington. Both have historically supported gold. However, that bet lost its footing on Tuesday, when October’s inflation report came in hotter than expected. Headline prices rose 0.4% for the month, against a 0.3% forecast. Because gold earns no yield, every basis point added to the Fed’s hiking path raises its cost. Holding gold becomes less attractive than holding interest-bearing assets. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthens on the same logic. So a political catalyst and a monetary one pulled in opposite directions this week, and the monetary one won. 

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Why Is Gold Still Falling Today? 

Wednesday’s bounce did not hold. For a few hours, silver briefly outran gold the morning after the inflation shock. But that rebound faded by Wednesday’s close. As a result, both metals opened lower again today. Market commentary published this morning describes a clear shift. Investors now price in a Fed rate increase in December. They also now expect a further hike in March 2027. Some Fed officials say more decisive tightening may be needed if price pressure persists. Also, a stronger dollar is doing part of the work. In short, two priced hikes instead of one is why gold stays under pressure heading into today’s session. The old pre-election close near $3,929 is now acting like a support level, the kind of price where buying interest has repeatedly shown up to halt a decline, and today’s session is an early test of whether that holds. 

What Is the Fed Saying Today? 

Today’s calendar is packed with Fed officials. The Fed already raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% this past September, its first hike since 2023, with a median year-end projection of 4.1%. So today’s speakers are talking inside an active hiking cycle, not debating whether to start one. 

First, weekly jobless claims land at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Next, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, a voting hawk, speaks at 9 a.m. Then existing home sales data follows at 10 a.m., alongside Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr. After that, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 11:30 a.m. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly delivers remarks at Stanford at 1:10 p.m. Finally, New York Fed President John Williams closes out the day at 6:30 p.m. Friday brings October’s producer price report, the next hard data point. 

CME’s FedWatch tool is the standard gauge of market-implied rate expectations. It showed December hike odds near 80% on Monday. By this morning, that figure had climbed to roughly 89%, with a small but rising chance (around 11% to 13%) now on a larger half-point move instead. Therefore, today’s speakers give policymakers their first chance to confirm that pricing, or push back against it, before Friday’s data lands. 

Does a Three-Day Pullback Change the Case for Owning Gold? 

A three-day drop driven by one hot inflation report makes a simple point. Gold’s price responds to real yields and the dollar over any given week, not to who wins an election. Still, that short-term sensitivity is separate from the longer-run case for holding gold. Indeed, gold and silver do not simply “go up.” They measure the debasement of the currency they are priced in. Persistent inflation causes that loss over years, not days. So no single data release changes the underlying case either way. Owners who bought on the election rally and are underwater today are feeling exactly the volatility gold is known for. Meanwhile, owners holding for the multi-year thesis have seen this round trip before. They will likely see it again. 

SOURCES
1. GoldSilver.com — Gold Falls to $4,055 as Hawkish Fed Remarks Meet a Hot CPI
2. GoldSilver.com — Silver Is Outrunning Gold the Morning After the Fed’s CPI Shock
3. GoldSilver.com — Gold Tops $4,000, Silver Jumps as Democrats Sweep the Midterms
4. CME Group — CME FedWatch Tool
5. Kiplinger — This Week’s Economic Calendar
6. Yahoo Finance — Gold Prices Today, Thursday, November 12, 2026
7. GoldSilver.com — Gold and Silver Price Charts

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.  

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