Gold Rises as Fed Rate Cut Odds Hit 74%

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
November 24th, 2025 

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Gold Holds Steady as Fed Rate Cut Odds Jump 

Gold prices held near $4,080 per ounce Monday, up 0.4% as growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut helped offset pressure from a firm dollar. Market odds of a rate cut surged to 74% from just 40% on Friday following dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams.  

But not all Fed officials are on board. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for keeping rates on hold “for a time,” while Fed presidents from Chicago and Cleveland warned that further cuts carry significant risks. 

The stronger dollar makes gold pricier for international buyers, creating headwinds even as lower rates typically benefit non-yielding assets like precious metals. Analysts expect a “flattish to negative undertone” over the next few weeks absent new geopolitical catalysts. The Fed’s inflation fight just got more complicated. 

Treasury Chief Says Tariffs Don’t Drive Inflation — Data Disagrees 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed Sunday that President Trump’s tariffs have “nothing to do” with inflation, attributing price increases instead to the service economy. The comments came on NBC’s “Meet the Press” as the administration rolled back tariffs on over 200 food products including coffee, beef, and tropical fruit. 

Ther data tells a different story: CPI data shows inflation jumped from 2.3% in April — before tariffs took effect — to 3.0% in September. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed research estimates tariffs added roughly 0.5 percentage points to PCE inflation from June through August.  

The disconnect matters for markets. If inflation stays elevated above the Fed’s 2% target, rate cuts could slow or pause — which traditionally benefits gold and silver as hedges against both persistent inflation and currency concerns. While policymakers debate inflation’s causes, analysts are already positioning for what comes next. 

UBS Says Silver’s Selloff Is a Buying Opportunity 

Silver has pulled back from recent highs near $54.50 per ounce, but UBS is doubling down on its bullish call — maintaining a $55 target by mid-2026. The investment bank sees the recent decline as profit-taking by momentum traders rather than a fundamental shift. 

UBS expects the gold-to-silver ratio to narrow to around 76x, potentially reaching 70x, which would signal silver outperforming gold. The bank also predicts ETF holdings will surpass their all-time high of 1,021 million ounces, driven by lower rates, global debt concerns, and dollar weakness. 

Their base case assumes gold reaches $4,200 per ounce, which would support silver’s climb. For investors eyeing precious metals exposure, UBS views current levels as a strategic entry point. Industry leaders are assessing similar trends. 

World Gold Council Weighs in on What’s Next for Gold 

The World Gold Council’s latest Unearthed podcast tackles where gold prices go from here, analyzing recent market movements, the impact of political developments in Washington, and predictions for the remainder of 2025. 

Hosts John Reade and Joseph Cavatoni also discussed sentiment from the recent LBMA Global Precious Metals Conference in Kyoto, where industry leaders gathered to assess supply chains, central bank buying, and investor demand trends. 

With gold trading above $4,000 for much of this year despite recent pullbacks, the podcast offers timely perspective on whether the rally has room to run — or if consolidation is the new normal. Worth a listen for anyone tracking precious metals markets.  

Senate Bill Targets First Real US Gold Audit in Decades 

A new Senate bill (S.3218) would mandate the first credible audit of US government gold holdings in decades and upgrade the purity of gold reserves to meet global market standards. The legislation also calls for follow-up audits every five years.  

The last comprehensive audit of Fort Knox was in 1953 — back when Eisenhower was president. While the Treasury claims to hold over 8,100 tonnes of gold (the world’s largest official reserves), skeptics have long questioned whether the metal is actually there and in what condition. 

If passed, this could bring unprecedented transparency to America’s gold stockpile. For investors, it’s a reminder that even in 2025, some of the most basic questions about sovereign gold reserves remain unanswered.