Gold Takes a Breather at $3,357 After Friday’s Rally, But Bulls Eye $3,500 Target

The US dollar stabilized Monday after Friday’s sharp decline triggered by weak jobs data and political turmoil. July employment figures showed only 73,000 jobs added with massive downward revisions of 258,000 for prior months, while President Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner added to market uncertainty. The dollar had plunged over 2% against the yen and 1.5% against the euro Friday, with markets now pricing a 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc weakened after Trump imposed high tariffs on Swiss imports.

Switzerland’s massive gold refining industry has become a key factor in US-Swiss trade relations after President Trump imposed 39% tariffs on Swiss imports. The country processes billions in gold annually, with bullion exports to the US reaching over $36 billion in Q1 2024—representing two-thirds of Switzerland’s trade surplus with America. Despite handling vast sums, Swiss refiners only capture a few dollars per ounce for recasting gold bars. While gold is now exempt from the tariffs, the precious metal’s flows continue to significantly impact trade balance calculations between the two nations.

At its July meeting, the Federal Reserve chose to keep interest rates steady, rejecting President Trump’s calls for a rate cut. The decision came in a 9-2 vote, marking the first time in decades with two dissenting members who favored easing rates, believing inflation was under control. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained that inflation remains above the 2% target, and the economy’s strength justifies holding rates for now. Recent data shows inflation rose slightly in June, influenced partly by new trade tariffs, which are beginning to affect prices on goods like appliances and groceries.

Gold is experiencing a strong rally, reaching record prices driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and heavy central bank buying. Although the recent gold price highs invite comparisons to the 1980 peak during a period of extreme inflation and political turmoil, today’s economic conditions are different—current inflation and unemployment are lower, and markets are generally healthier. Central banks now actively buy gold, unlike in the 1980s when they were mostly sellers. This shift, combined with rising geopolitical risks, supports gold’s role as a key safe-haven asset, potentially sustaining its high value.

Both President Trump and Democratic leaders are making conflicting and sometimes misleading claims about inflation and price changes during Trump’s current term. Trump says prices for groceries, energy, and eggs have fallen, while Democrats say costs keep rising. Experts note many factors affect prices—like tariffs, weather, disease outbreaks, and global markets—so it’s too soon to fully judge the impact of policies. For instance, grocery and beef prices rose due to tariffs and supply issues, while egg prices fell mainly because the bird flu eased. Gasoline prices are steady but not as low as Trump claims, and electricity costs have gone