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Gold Trades Flat as Central Banks Rethink Rate Cuts

Daily News Nuggets Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors 
December 9th, 2025 

 

Gold Treads Water Ahead of Fed’s “Hawkish Cut” 

Gold is holding steady around $4,200 per ounce as traders brace for this week’s Federal Reserve decision. Markets are pricing in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, but the real focus is on what comes next. Analysts expect Chair Jerome Powell to deliver a “hawkish cut” — rate relief paired with guidance that signals a higher bar for further easing in 2026.  

Lower rates typically support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, but hawkish rhetoric could strengthen the dollar and weigh on the metal. Meanwhile, silver continues to shine, trading near its record high of $59.32 hit last Friday, buoyed by tight physical supply and industrial demand. 

The Fed isn’t alone in rethinking the pace of monetary easing. 

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The Global Easing Cycle Hits the Brakes 

Central banks around the world are pumping the brakes on rate cuts — or stopping altogether. Money markets now see almost no chance of further easing from the European Central Bank and are pricing in a 30% probability of a rate hike by the end of 2026. In Australia, the central bank ruled out additional cuts this week, with traders now betting on two quarter-point increases by the end of next year.  

Even as the Fed prepares to cut rates Wednesday, Wall Street is scaling back expectations for 2026 amid lingering inflation concerns and a more resilient economy. For gold investors, the shift is a double-edged sword: higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the metal, but persistent inflation fears and economic uncertainty continue to underpin safe-haven demand. 

That inflation concern isn’t abstract — Americans are feeling it in their wallets. 

 

Why Americans Still Feel Squeezed — Even as Inflation Cools 

Inflation may be cooling from its 2022 peak, but Americans aren’t feeling much relief. While the Consumer Price Index hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, prices for daily essentials remain stubbornly elevated — and in many cases, they’re still climbing 

Food prices are up more than 18% since January 2022, with nearly half of Americans saying groceries are harder to afford than a year ago. Housing costs have surged even more dramatically: the typical homebuyer now needs to earn $121,400 annually to afford a home, well above the average American income of $84,000. Child care costs have jumped 30% since 2020 to over $13,000 per year, while health insurance premiums are set to more than double for millions if federal subsidies expire.  

Even utility bills are up 12% to an average of $265 per month. For investors, this persistent affordability crisis helps explain why gold has rallied over 60% this year — it’s not just about Fed policy, but a deeper unease about the purchasing power of the dollar. 

 

Turkey’s Gold Fever Cools — And the Lira Breathes Easier 

After months of frenzy, Turkey’s physical gold market is returning to normal. The premium Turkish buyers were paying over global spot prices — which peaked above 5% in the fall — has now narrowed back to its historical average of around 1.5%. The surge in local demand had put pressure on the lira as imports spiked to meet appetite for the metal, a longtime inflation hedge in Turkey.  

But with global gold prices stabilizing near $4,200 and local demand cooling, supply has caught up. Turkey’s central bank estimates households are sitting on nearly $500 billion in gold stored at home — a staggering figure that underscores the metal’s role as a wealth preservation tool in high-inflation economies. 

 

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