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Goldman Sachs’ Daan Struyven, who leads global commodities research and heads oil research, shares insights on the ongoing gold rally.
We raise our end-2025 forecast to $3,300/toz (vs. $3,100) and our forecast rangeto $3,250-3,520, reflecting upside surprises in ETF inflows and in continued
strong central bank gold demand. While the uncertainty is large, we estimate that large Asian central bank buyers are likely to continue their rapid gold purchases for another 3-6 years to reach our estimated range of potential gold reserve targets. Our base case forecast assumes speculative positioning normalizes from current elevated levels (85th percentile), while the top end of our price range reflects persistently stretched positioning amid heightened uncertainty. Medium-term price risks remain skewed to the upside, and we illustrate how, in tail-risk scenarios, gold can exceed $4,200/toz by end-2025.
