Major financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Barclays have reduced their U.S. recession forecasts following a 90-day tariff truce between the U.S. and China. Goldman Sachs lowered its recession probability from 45% to 35% and increased its 2025 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1%.
The banks have also adjusted their Federal Reserve rate cut predictions, with all three now forecasting just one rate cut in December 2025 instead of earlier timelines. Goldman Sachs also raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,100 points.