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Middle East Violence and Tariff Fears Push Prices to Historic Levels

Gold prices reached another record high, climbing to $3,028.24 an ounce on Tuesday as investors increasingly turn to the safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical and economic uncertainties. This marks gold’s 14th record high this year, with prices surging over 15% year-to-date after first breaking the $3,000 barrier on March 14. The rally is being fueled by what Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen calls “a perfect storm of gold-supporting factors.”

The surge is driven by two main factors: escalating violence in Gaza, where Israeli airstrikes have reportedly killed over 400 people and threatened a fragile ceasefire, and growing concerns about Donald Trump’s trade policies. These include the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum already in place since February and new reciprocal tariffs coming on April 2.

Investors are also closely watching this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. While the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged so far this year after three cuts in 2024, markets expect rate cuts to resume in June. According to WisdomTree strategist Nitesh Shah, a dovish Fed position combined with the “chaotic tariff policy backdrop” could drive gold prices even higher. GoldCore CEO David Russell believes gold might face resistance at $3,050 in the short term but could reach $3,150-$3,200 by the end of March if it breaks through this level.

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Gold at $4,480: Physical Demand Hits a 50-Year Milestone
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Gold at $4,480: Physical Demand Hits a 50-Year Milestone

Central banks reshape gold markets through the most concentrated sovereign buying in decades — but that’s only one of five forces moving gold right now. Physical investment is overtaking jewelry demand for the first time on record. Russia’s figures don’t add up. China just hit the brakes. Here’s what’s driving the market.

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Gold Holds $4,481 With Rate Hike Risk Rising. Here’s the NFP Decision Map.

Gold is holding near $4,481 with rate hike risk rising — a divergence that, in any prior rate cycle, would have already sent gold lower. Tomorrow’s May jobs report is the last major data point before Warsh’s first FOMC meeting June 16–17. Here’s the three-scenario decision map: what a hot print, an in-line print, and a soft miss each mean for gold — and why the Fed’s policy trap makes the structural case for sound money regardless of Friday’s number.

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