Morgan Stanley forecasts a steady decline in mortgage rates through 2026 as treasury yields are expected to drop.
The housing market has stalled since 2022 when rates doubled from 3.5% to nearly 7%, remaining above 6.5% despite recent interest rate cuts.
While the Federal Reserve influences mortgage rates, they’re more directly tied to 10-year treasury yields, which lenders use as pricing benchmarks.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has committed to lowering these yields to provide housing relief, potentially stimulating economic growth by revitalizing the long-dormant market.