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Recession Fears Fuel Gold’s Rise as Major Banks Raise Price Targets to $3,500+

Goldman Sachs and UBS have issued new bullish forecasts for gold prices, raising their targets significantly. Goldman Sachs analysts now predict gold will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2024 and climb to $4,000 by mid-2026. UBS is similarly optimistic, forecasting $3,500 per ounce by December 2025.

These upgraded forecasts follow gold’s impressive 6.6% surge last week, which pushed prices to a record high above $3,245 per ounce on Monday. Both banks had previously upgraded their outlooks in March, reflecting strong consensus on gold’s prospects amid global market uncertainty, particularly related to President Trump’s trade policies.

Goldman has increased its estimate of central bank gold purchases to 80 tons monthly (up from 70 tons) and maintains its recommendation to go long on gold. They highlight that rising recession risks—which they now estimate at 45% probability—could boost inflows to gold-backed ETFs. In a recession scenario, they believe gold could reach $3,880 per ounce by year-end.

Gold price outlook August 2026: chart showing gold's correction and recovery, with Jobs, CPI, and PPI data releases marking the turning point
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Gold Price Outlook August 2026: What Three Data Prints in One Week Mean for Your Metals

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Gold bar resting on a crumpled supermarket receipt on a checkout counter, with a blurred retail store aisle in the background — illustrating how falling consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations are driving gold prices higher in August 2026.
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Gold bar resting on a crumpled supermarket receipt on a checkout counter, with a blurred retail store aisle in the background — illustrating how falling consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations are driving gold prices higher in August 2026.
News

Gold Rebounds to $4,392 as Sentiment Crashes to 51 and Inflation Expectations Rise

The University of Michigan’s August Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 51 — missing the 54.5 consensus and ending two months of improvement — while inflation expectations rose to 4.3%. The simultaneous drop in growth confidence and rise in price expectations creates a stagflation signal that limits the Federal Reserve’s options and extends gold’s tailwind heading into September.

Read More »

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