Recession Fears Fuel Gold’s Rise as Major Banks Raise Price Targets to $3,500+

Goldman Sachs and UBS have issued new bullish forecasts for gold prices, raising their targets significantly. Goldman Sachs analysts now predict gold will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2024 and climb to $4,000 by mid-2026. UBS is similarly optimistic, forecasting $3,500 per ounce by December 2025.

These upgraded forecasts follow gold’s impressive 6.6% surge last week, which pushed prices to a record high above $3,245 per ounce on Monday. Both banks had previously upgraded their outlooks in March, reflecting strong consensus on gold’s prospects amid global market uncertainty, particularly related to President Trump’s trade policies.

Goldman has increased its estimate of central bank gold purchases to 80 tons monthly (up from 70 tons) and maintains its recommendation to go long on gold. They highlight that rising recession risks—which they now estimate at 45% probability—could boost inflows to gold-backed ETFs. In a recession scenario, they believe gold could reach $3,880 per ounce by year-end.