Tariff Chaos Sends Gold Markets Into Turmoil, Then Retreat

New research from Goldman Sachs reveals a significant shift in who pays for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. According to economists led by Jan Hatzius, American consumers have so far shouldered only 22% of tariff costs through June, with businesses absorbing the majority. However, this dynamic is changing rapidly as companies increasingly pass these costs to consumers through higher prices. Goldman predicts consumers will bear 67% of tariff costs if current patterns continue. The impact on inflation could be substantial, with core PCE inflation potentially reaching 3.2% year-over-year by December, compared to 2.4% without tariffs. This creates a complex

Markets are closely watching this week’s inflation data as the Federal Reserve faces mounting pressure to cut interest rates. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due Tuesday, is expected to show inflation rising to 2.8% annually, up from 2.7% in June, with tariffs driving the acceleration. The nomination of Stephen Miran to the Fed Board adds another voice potentially favoring rate cuts, as economists predict the Fed may need to act by September to avoid multiple dissenting votes. Meanwhile, retail sales data on Friday will provide crucial insight into consumer spending strength amid these economic crosscurrents.

President Trump’s aggressive trade policies and tariff regime are challenging the US dollar’s long-standing role as the world’s primary reserve currency. While the dollar currently dominates global transactions—used in 90% of foreign exchange trades and making up nearly 60% of government reserves worldwide—Trump’s approach to reshaping international trade is causing governments and investors to reconsider their reliance on US assets. This shift could reduce America’s economic leverage and its ability to fund budget deficits through foreign investment, potentially ending a key advantage the US has enjoyed since World War II.

Gold faces a critical test at $3,351/oz – a break above this level would confirm the uptrend continues. Last week saw mixed signals: new tariffs were implemented, UK and India central banks made cautious policy moves, and US economic data weakened even as strong corporate earnings lifted stocks. The biggest story was a record price gap between COMEX gold futures and London spot prices, caused by new 39% US tariffs on Swiss exports. Switzerland refines most of the world’s gold, but the tariffs didn’t clearly exempt gold bars (1kg and 100oz sizes), creating market chaos. The White House plans to

The White House plans to issue an executive order to clarify confusion about gold bar tariffs after the U.S. Customs and Border Protection indicated that popular 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars would be subject to country-specific import tariffs. This ruling stunned the gold industry, with Switzerland facing a potential 39% tariff, prompting some companies to pause gold deliveries to the U.S. The White House called the tariff concerns “misinformation” and promised clarification, causing gold futures to pare gains after initially hitting record highs. The uncertainty has disrupted global gold supply chains between major hubs in Switzerland, London, and New York.