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Treasury Markets Find Footing Ahead of Crucial Jobs Report

The Treasury market found some relief after a significant selloff that had rippled through global markets, with yields retreating across the curve as investors turn their attention to Friday’s employment data. The timing is particularly notable as US markets prepare to close for former President Carter’s memorial. Fed officials, including Philadelphia’s Patrick Harker and Boston’s Susan Collins, are maintaining a cautious stance on rate cuts, suggesting a slower pace than previously anticipated due to persistent economic strength. Adding complexity to the monetary policy outlook is the Fed’s increased focus on “market-based” inflation measures, which show more moderate price pressures at 2.4% compared to traditional gauges running at 2.8%. This divergence could influence the timing and pace of future rate adjustments.

Gold bars in front of the Federal Reserve building — gold price non-reaction Iran ceasefire
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Gold Didn’t Fall on Iran Peace News. That’s the Point.

Trump called off a planned strike on Iran Monday afternoon. Oil fell over 1%. Gold slipped 0.23%. That’s not a non-event — it’s a signal. The gold price isn’t moving on war or peace news because it’s no longer the war holding it up. It’s the Fed trap: a central bank that can’t raise rates into a $39 trillion debt and can’t cut while inflation runs hot. Until that changes, the floor holds.

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Gold price Iran pause monetary floor: three gold bars stacked on a dark surface against a red financial data display showing U.S. national debt figures
News

Trump Called Off the Strike. Gold’s Real Risk Is Still $39 Trillion.

Trump’s decision to pause a planned Iran strike sent gold swinging $45 intraday and crude oil down more than 2% — but the two metals told completely different stories. Oil priced out the geopolitical risk. Gold barely moved. Five briefs explain why: Iran is the catalyst, not the cause. The monetary fundamentals driving gold — $39 trillion in national debt, fifteen years of money creation, central banks in their fifteenth straight year of net buying — don’t get resolved by a phone call.

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Latest News

Gold bars in front of the Federal Reserve building — gold price non-reaction Iran ceasefire
News

Gold Didn’t Fall on Iran Peace News. That’s the Point.

Trump called off a planned strike on Iran Monday afternoon. Oil fell over 1%. Gold slipped 0.23%. That’s not a non-event — it’s a signal. The gold price isn’t moving on war or peace news because it’s no longer the war holding it up. It’s the Fed trap: a central bank that can’t raise rates into a $39 trillion debt and can’t cut while inflation runs hot. Until that changes, the floor holds.

Read More »
Gold price Iran pause monetary floor: three gold bars stacked on a dark surface against a red financial data display showing U.S. national debt figures
News

Trump Called Off the Strike. Gold’s Real Risk Is Still $39 Trillion.

Trump’s decision to pause a planned Iran strike sent gold swinging $45 intraday and crude oil down more than 2% — but the two metals told completely different stories. Oil priced out the geopolitical risk. Gold barely moved. Five briefs explain why: Iran is the catalyst, not the cause. The monetary fundamentals driving gold — $39 trillion in national debt, fifteen years of money creation, central banks in their fifteenth straight year of net buying — don’t get resolved by a phone call.

Read More »

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