Why China Still Dominates Rare Earths – And How the West Can Catch Up

Rare earth elements, essential for everything from EVs to missile systems, aren’t actually that scarce. The real bottleneck lies in refining — a complex, costly, and often environmentally messy process. China dominates that stage, accounting for over 90% of global refined output, thanks to government subsidies that let its companies accept razor-thin margins.

Western miners prefer extracting raw materials, which is more profitable than refining. But this hands-off approach has left a strategic vulnerability. As prices fall, non-Chinese refiners can’t compete without help. Governments in the U.S., South Korea, and France are now stepping in with subsidies, price guarantees, and public-private partnerships. Still, the International Energy Agency says China will likely control 73% of the refining market even by 2040. The West may need to go further — forming global alliances and stockpiling unused output — if it wants a real shot at independence.