Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News

According to Bank of America’s analysis of recent earnings calls, corporate executives are expressing unprecedented pessimism about economic conditions during recent earnings calls, reaching levels not seen since the 2009 financial crisis. Many companies are reducing their 2025 guidance due to uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s trade policies and tariffs. With the S&P 500 down nearly 15% from February’s high, this earnings season carries significant importance. Companies are struggling to quantify the impact of rapidly shifting trade policies, with 27% of S&P 500 firms cutting guidance while only 9% have raised their outlook. Automakers have been hit hardest, while consumer staples...

President Trump has announced a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, marking a retreat from his previous hardline position amid concerns about the escalating trade war. “Tariffs will come down substantially,” Trump stated, expressing optimism about reaching a trade agreement with China. This shift from his earlier aggressive stance, which had prompted substantial Chinese retaliation, has helped calm financial markets and sparked hopes for de-escalation in one of the most severe recent trade confrontations.

Western investors are making a strong comeback to the gold market after a three-year break, purchasing about 240 tons of gold-backed ETFs by mid-April. That’s a significant shift from the 441 tons they sold in the past three years. This surge in demand is boosting prices, with gold recently breaking above $3,500 per ounce. Major ETF inflows, especially into SPDR Gold Shares, are driven by institutional investors looking to hedge against market risks. Analysts believe this buying trend could push gold prices as high as $5,000 in the long run.

The US dollar is experiencing a substantial decline, having weakened more than 9% this year amid uncertainty about US policy. This has triggered a flight from US assets, with Bank of America reporting the most pessimistic dollar outlook from investors in nearly 20 years. As the dollar falls, safe-haven currencies have appreciated significantly – the Japanese yen (10%), Swiss franc and euro (11%) have all strengthened, alongside currencies like the Mexican peso, Canadian dollar, Polish zloty, and Russian rouble. However, some emerging markets have seen their currencies hit record lows despite the weaker dollar.

Recent Treasury market volatility has been driven by concerns about foreign investor support, with some fearing that tariff tensions might cause investors to sell Treasuries. While foreign investors own about 30% of the Treasury market, Goldman Sachs’ William Marshall notes there’s little evidence of active selling by foreign central banks. However, long-term diversification away from dollar assets remains a possibility. The Treasury market faces three main challenges: concerns about the US economy, reassessment of tariff implications, and potential shifts away from dollar assets. Despite these challenges, positive factors such as potential regulatory changes could help banks better absorb Treasury supply,...

Gold ETFs in China are experiencing massive growth as investors seek shelter from market uncertainty caused by trade tensions. Assets under management in Chinese gold ETFs have increased by $9.6 billion to reach 126.7 billion yuan, with the largest fund managed by Hua An Fund Management holding 64.2 billion yuan. Gold prices recently topped $3,400 per ounce and have risen over 60% in two years, positioning the metal as an alternative to traditional safe havens like US Treasury bonds and the dollar. This shift comes as the US dollar index approaches its lowest level since March 2022, and as central...

Apollo Global Management’s chief economist predicts a 90% chance that the US will enter a “Voluntary Trade Reset Recession” due to Trump’s tariff policies. Small businesses are expected to be particularly vulnerable as they lack the working capital to pay tariffs. While some financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs put recession chances between 40-45%, JPMorgan estimates a 60% probability. White House officials remain optimistic, but prominent economists including Ray Dalio and Lawrence Summers express significant concerns, with Summers predicting 2 million additional Americans could become unemployed.

Societe Generale strategist Alain Bokobza, who accurately predicted the end of US financial dominance, believes the shift away from American assets will continue for years under Trump’s trade policies. Since his warning in September 2024, the S&P 500 has fallen 15% and the Dollar Index has dropped nearly 9%. Bokobza cites tariffs, trade uncertainty, and potential Federal Reserve independence concerns as key factors driving investors toward European, Japanese, and Chinese markets instead.

Gold briefly hit a record high of $3,500 per ounce amid market concerns that President Trump might fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This has triggered investors to move away from US stocks, bonds, and the dollar toward safe-haven assets. Gold has risen by one-third in 2025 due to trade tensions undermining confidence in dollar assets. While some analysts predict gold could reach $4,000 next year, technical indicators suggest the rally might pause temporarily.