Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
The silver market just experienced a structural shock — and history suggests it may matter far more than today’s price action.
In a recent video, Mike Maloney breaks down a fresh CME margin requirement hike that sent shockwaves through the futures market. Silver margins were raised 30% overnight, forcing traders to either post significantly more capital or liquidate positions. That kind of move almost always creates short-term volatility.
But as Maloney explains, forced selling does not end bull markets. In fact, some of the strongest long-term advances in precious metals have emerged after margin-driven pullbacks.
If you’re watching silver from a fundamental or long-term perspective, this moment deserves close attention.
CME Margin Hike: Why Silver Futures Suddenly Got More Expensive
Just hours before the video was recorded, Maloney received confirmation that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements again:
- Gold margins: up 9.1%
- Silver margins: up 30%
- Silver maintenance margin: increased from $25,000 to $32,500 per contract
Each COMEX silver futures contract represents 5,000 ounces of silver, meaning traders must now post an additional $7,500 per contract simply to maintain existing positions.
For heavily leveraged traders holding multiple contracts, this adds up fast.
What Happens Next?
When margin requirements rise sharply:
- Some traders post additional capital
- Others are forced to sell part or all of their positions
- Selling pressure pushes prices lower
- Falling prices trigger additional margin calls
This feedback loop can cause sudden downside volatility — even in strong markets.
As Maloney notes, this is why he expects silver prices to fall when markets open following the announcement.
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Forced Liquidations Don’t Kill Bull Markets
Short-term price declines caused by margin hikes are often misunderstood.
They are mechanical, not fundamental.
Maloney is clear: this is not “irrational exuberance” or speculative mania. Silver’s recent strength is being driven by real supply-demand pressures and future industrial demand, not hype.
Forced selling simply reshuffles positions — it doesn’t eliminate the underlying reasons silver has been rising.
“This is not speculation. It’s rising because of supply-demand fundamentals and all of the future need for silver.”
Historically, some of the strongest bull markets in gold and silver experienced multiple violent pullbacks caused by leverage resets — and then continued higher.
Why This Pullback Could Be a Buying Opportunity
Maloney is careful not to give financial advice, but he’s clear about his personal interpretation:
“To me, that’s a buying opportunity.”
Markets that move too far, too fast often need to pause and consolidate. That doesn’t invalidate the trend — it strengthens it.
Silver had become short-term overbought, rising rapidly in a compressed timeframe. A pullback driven by margin mechanics — not a collapse in fundamentals — can:
- Shake out weak hands
- Reduce excessive leverage
- Reset technical indicators
- Establish new support levels
In strong bull markets, these pauses often become launchpads, not endings.
Technical Levels: What the Charts Are Telling Us
Maloney walks through key technical indicators to provide context for what could happen next.
Key Moving Averages to Watch
- 9-day exponential moving average
- 20-day simple moving average
- 50-day moving average
- 200-day moving average (off-chart)
During the 2002–2011 precious metals bull market, Maloney often noted that touches of the 200-day moving average were historically strong buying opportunities.
However, he does not expect silver to pull back that deeply in current conditions.
Instead, a more shallow retracement — potentially toward prior resistance levels — would be consistent with a healthy bull market.
The 1970s Silver Parallel: History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes
One of the most compelling parts of the video is Maloney’s historical comparison to the 1970s silver bull market.
He notes something remarkable:
- Silver recently broke through a major resistance level
- It did so on the same calendar day that silver broke out in the 1970s
- That breakout in the late 1970s preceded a spectacular run-up
In that historical cycle, silver did not immediately retrace to long-term moving averages before continuing higher. The breakout itself marked a regime change.
Maloney sees today’s price structure as a reflection of late-1979 behavior, not a random coincidence — though he stresses this is a loose comparison, not a prediction.
From Resistance to Support: The Bull Market Confirmation Signal
The most important takeaway may be this:
If silver pulls back and former resistance turns into support, it would strongly confirm that a long-lasting bull market is underway.
That kind of retest often separates:
- Short-lived speculative spikes
- From structural, multi-year bull trends
“If that resistance becomes support, it’s confirmation that the game is on.”
In other words, the next pullback may help answer the biggest question silver investors are asking right now:
Is this just a fast move — or the beginning of something much bigger?
Why Maloney Warns Against Silver Futures
Despite his bullish outlook on silver itself, Maloney is unequivocal about one thing:
Avoid futures contracts.
Margin hikes consistently:
- Protect short positions
- Hurt leveraged longs
- Introduce forced selling unrelated to fundamentals
Physical silver, by contrast, carries no margin calls, no forced liquidation risk, and already provides significant leverage to price movements.
Recent price action alone demonstrates how powerful that exposure can be — even without derivatives.
Could Silver Reach Triple Digits?
Maloney does not mince words about the long-term implications:
If this pullback resolves constructively and confirms support, silver’s bull market could extend far beyond a short-term move — potentially into triple-digit prices over time.
That outcome would not be driven by speculation, but by:
- Structural supply constraints
- Growing industrial demand
- Monetary debasement pressures
- A loss of confidence in paper markets
The path there will not be smooth — but bull markets never are.
Final Thoughts: Volatility Is the Price of Opportunity
CME margin hikes create discomfort, volatility, and emotional reactions — but they also reveal where real demand exists without leverage.
If silver holds key levels and transforms former resistance into support, today’s forced selling may be remembered not as a breakdown — but as a confirmation moment.
For long-term observers of the silver market, this is not noise.
It’s structure.
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People Also Ask
Why did silver prices react to the CME margin hike?
Silver prices reacted because the CME raised margin requirements on silver futures by 30%, forcing traders to either post more cash or liquidate positions. This forced selling creates short-term downward pressure on prices, even when the underlying fundamentals remain strong.
Does a CME margin increase mean the silver bull market is over?
No. A CME margin increase does not end a bull market. Margin hikes cause mechanical, short-term selling due to leverage reduction, but they do not change supply-and-demand fundamentals. Historically, similar pullbacks have occurred within strong silver bull markets before prices moved higher.
Why do margin hikes cause forced selling in silver futures?
Margin hikes require traders to increase the cash backing their futures contracts. Traders who cannot meet the higher margin requirements must sell part or all of their positions, which increases selling pressure and can temporarily push silver prices lower.
Is a silver price pullback after a margin hike a buying opportunity?
A pullback caused by forced liquidation can be a buying opportunity for long-term investors, as it often reflects technical pressure rather than weakening fundamentals. These pullbacks can help reset overbought conditions and establish new support levels in a bull market.
Why does Mike Maloney warn against trading silver futures?
Mike Maloney warns against silver futures because margin changes favor short sellers and expose long traders to forced liquidation. Physical silver does not carry margin calls and provides direct exposure to silver’s price without leverage-related risks.
