Gold Had Every Reason to Rally Today. It Didn’t. Five Reasons Why.

Gold opened above $4,100 this morning and gave it back within hours. Five forces explain why the rally didn’t hold: the Bank of Japan held rates as the yen hit a 40-year low, the US-Iran pause faded, Q2 GDP missed forecasts, the Fed voted 9-to-3 to hold with three regional presidents pushing to hike, and the gold-silver ratio sits near 70.

Warsh Said the PCE Drop Was “Not Much” of a Consideration. Gold Agreed.

June PCE fell to 3.7% — the number gold investors spent the week watching. Gold opened $34 higher anyway. Fed Chair Warsh said the cooler reading was “not much” of a consideration. Here is the mechanism behind the move, and the GDP number nobody was talking about.

Everyone Is Watching the Fed. Gold Is Watching Tomorrow at 8:30 a.m.

The Fed announces its rate decision today at 2:00 p.m. ET. But the number that will most directly determine gold’s next move arrives eight hours later — June PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, releases Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here is the three-scenario framework that connects tomorrow’s print to your gold.