Two Inflation Numbers Come Out Every Month. The Fed Only Cares About One.

The Fed releases two inflation numbers every month — headline CPI and core CPI. They tell very different stories, and the Fed only acts on one of them. Here is what each measure captures, why the Fed leans on core PCE to set interest rates, and why that gap between what you pay and what the Fed watches matters for gold investors.

Warsh Said the PCE Drop Was “Not Much” of a Consideration. Gold Agreed.

June PCE fell to 3.7% — the number gold investors spent the week watching. Gold opened $34 higher anyway. Fed Chair Warsh said the cooler reading was “not much” of a consideration. Here is the mechanism behind the move, and the GDP number nobody was talking about.

The Fed Just Named AI as Its Top Inflation Threat. Gold Noticed.

NY Fed President John Williams says AI-driven demand is now his biggest inflation concern — and that the Fed would “need to respond” if it persists. Here’s why that’s a gold story, not just a tech story, and what to watch before July 14.

Warsh Sat Out the Dot Plot. The FOMC Minutes Drop Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve releases the FOMC minutes from its June 16–17 meeting on Wednesday, July 8 at 2:00 p.m. ET. The committee came out nine to nine on whether to raise rates in 2026. Here is what the minutes will reveal — and why the real-yield mechanism makes them the most important data point for gold holders this week.

Kevin Warsh Wants to Fix the Fed. The Math Says He Can’t.

Kevin Warsh arrived at the Fed with a bold agenda — shrink the balance sheet, normalize policy, restore credibility. But with $6.7 trillion in assets, global bond yields at multi-decade highs, and markets pricing in rate hikes instead of cuts, the math is working against him. Alan breaks down why the plan may be dead on arrival and what it means for gold.

How Warsh’s Inflation Measure Could Move the Gold Price

The incoming Fed Chair wants to change how inflation is measured. That single shift — from core PCE to trimmed mean — could reopen the path to rate cuts and compress the real yields that drive gold.

Hot PCE, Stalling Growth, and an Oil Crisis That Isn’t Over 

PCE inflation came in at 2.8% year-over-year in February — above the 2.6% forecast and unchanged from January. Combined with near-stalled Q4 GDP growth and an unresolved energy crisis, today’s data paints a complicated picture for the Fed and a familiar one for gold.

Gold Price Drops After Oil Shock — Here’s What’s Really Driving It 

Gold is falling even as oil surges and inflation risks climb. The gold price drop after oil shock is catching investors off guard—but the real story reveals a deeper shift in markets that could shape what comes next.