Silver Is Up 1.5% Today. Oil Is Up 3%. Those Two Moves Shouldn’t Coexist. Here’s Why They Do.

Silver rose 1.55% today even as crude oil surged 3% on fresh U.S.-Iran airstrikes — the inverse of what the standard oil-inflation-hike chain predicts. The reason: the July 29 FOMC hold is already priced above 85%, neutralizing today’s oil move as a rate catalyst. Here is the exact mechanism behind the broken correlation.

Kevin Warsh Wants to Fix the Fed. The Math Says He Can’t.

Kevin Warsh arrived at the Fed with a bold agenda — shrink the balance sheet, normalize policy, restore credibility. But with $6.7 trillion in assets, global bond yields at multi-decade highs, and markets pricing in rate hikes instead of cuts, the math is working against him. Alan breaks down why the plan may be dead on arrival and what it means for gold.

Gold Fell. China Bought Its Most in 17 Months. Here’s Why.

Five things drove gold and silver lower this week — a stronger dollar, spiking Treasury yields, the hottest US producer inflation in over three years, a new Federal Reserve chair, and a Trump-Xi summit with no deal. All five are documented and short-term. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China quietly made its largest gold purchase in 17 months. That contrast is the story.

Why Is Gold Falling When the World Is on Fire?

Why is gold falling when the world is on fire? This piece breaks down the five forces behind the selloff: Iran’s oil shock, the March jobs surprise, the Fed’s stagflation trap, Goldman’s $5,400 gold thesis, and whether the safe-haven story is broken or just deferred.