Gold Isn’t Falling on a Hawkish Fed. Here’s Why.

Gold isn’t falling on a hawkish Fed because the market itself is split — CME, Kalshi, and Polymarket don’t agree on September’s rate hike odds.

Gold Fell 9% the Last Time Warsh Spoke. He’s Back Tomorrow.

Gold fell roughly 9% the last time Kevin Warsh spoke as Fed chair. He delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote tomorrow, and the market isn’t taking chances.

Americans Spent More in July. They Got Nothing Extra for It.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis put July consumer spending up $36.3 billion, and up $1.3 billion once prices are stripped out. Core inflation held at 3.3%, a sixty-fifth straight month above target. Here is why gold slipped anyway.

Gold Nears $4,700, Silver Holds Above $69. Why Is Everyone Waiting on One Friday Speech?

Gold pushed past $4,600 and silver held near $69 as Treasury yields and the dollar fell into Friday’s Warsh Jackson Hole speech. Here’s the mechanism connecting five threads — and what a hawkish, dovish, or neutral surprise could mean for both metals.

Gold Had Every Reason to Rally Today. It Didn’t. Five Reasons Why.

Gold opened above $4,100 this morning and gave it back within hours. Five forces explain why the rally didn’t hold: the Bank of Japan held rates as the yen hit a 40-year low, the US-Iran pause faded, Q2 GDP missed forecasts, the Fed voted 9-to-3 to hold with three regional presidents pushing to hike, and the gold-silver ratio sits near 70.

Warsh Said the PCE Drop Was “Not Much” of a Consideration. Gold Agreed.

June PCE fell to 3.7% — the number gold investors spent the week watching. Gold opened $34 higher anyway. Fed Chair Warsh said the cooler reading was “not much” of a consideration. Here is the mechanism behind the move, and the GDP number nobody was talking about.

Gold at $4,100. Silver Still Stuck Below $60. Five Signals Define the Next Six Weeks.

The Fed held rates for the fifth straight meeting. PCE cooled. Gold crossed $4,100. Silver still can’t break $60. Here are five signals defining the next six weeks before Jackson Hole.

Everyone Is Watching the Fed. Gold Is Watching Tomorrow at 8:30 a.m.

The Fed announces its rate decision today at 2:00 p.m. ET. But the number that will most directly determine gold’s next move arrives eight hours later — June PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, releases Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here is the three-scenario framework that connects tomorrow’s print to your gold.

Oil Dropped 7%. Gold Rose. Here Is the Mechanism Everyone Misses.

Oil dropped 7% on Monday after the US and Iran paused their 13-night exchange of strikes. Gold rose. Most headlines reported the move. Here is the mechanism that explains it — and why the same chain caused gold to fall during the conflict in the first place.

The Fed Meets July 29. Gold Says Hold Is Already Priced In. Silver Says Something Else.

Gold is holding above $4,000 and silver is surging nearly 5% on Tuesday. Both metals are pricing the July 29 Fed hold. But silver’s outsized move points to something more — and the number that moves gold most this month may not arrive until the morning after the decision.