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Fed Takes Conservative Stance on 2025 Rate Cuts

President Trump toured the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation site with Chair Jerome Powell, sparring over whether the cost has risen to $3.1 billion (Powell said that figure included a third building completed earlier). Trump used the visit to press for lower interest rates, but Powell defended the Fed’s independence. The renovations—covering the Eccles and East buildings—started in 2022 and are due in 2027, with security upgrades a major driver of cost.

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On Friday, spot gold eased to $3,357.25 an ounce (–0.3%) after U.S. jobless claims fell for the sixth consecutive week—the longest run of declines since 2022—reinforcing views that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting. Treasury yields climbed, and swap markets trimmed their rate-cut forecasts to fewer than two this year, with October now seen as the most likely starting point. President Trump’s easing criticism of Fed Chair Powell boosted the dollar, making gold more expensive abroad. Despite this pullback, gold remains up about 25% year-to-date, buoyed by trade-war and geopolitical uncertainty.

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Newmont Mining — the world’s largest gold producer — posted adjusted Q2 earnings of $1.43 per share—beating the $1.18 consensus—as soaring gold prices offset an 8% drop in production to 1.48 million ounces. With bullion averaging $3,220/oz (up 12% QoQ and 40% YoY) and realized prices near $3,320/oz, higher revenues more than covered a small rise in all-in-sustaining costs to $1,593/oz. The miner has also trimmed debt by selling non-core assets, and is managing an incident where three workers remain trapped underground at one of its Canadian sites.ada to pay down debt after its blockbuster Newcrest acquisition.

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“Renewed hopes for a U.S.–EU trade deal (potentially setting a 15% tariff with exemptions) alongside progress on U.S.–Japan talks have lifted stock markets and dented gold’s appeal as a refuge. On Friday, gold futures slipped to $3,356.10/oz and spot prices to $3,360.13/oz. OANDA’s Kelvin Wong attributes part of the pullback to profit-taking by short-term bulls. Despite the dip, gold remains buoyed by a weakening dollar and the market’s expectation that the Fed will eventually cut rates—possibly as soon as September. Adding to the drama, President Trump’s surprise visit to the Fed this afternoon injects fresh uncertainty into the policy outlook....

“This week, Asian physical gold markets saw muted buying as higher prices dampened sentiment and pushed dealers to offer steeper discounts. In India—the world’s largest consumer—jewellers quoted up to $15/oz off official domestic rates (which include a 6% import duty and 3% sales tax), up from a $10/oz discount last week. Retail demand remained negligible, with many shops postponing new orders amid uncertainty. In China, gold dealers vacillated between a $5/oz discount and a $4/oz premium over international benchmarks, while customs data revealed imports have declined for a second consecutive month. Hong Kong’s premium settled between zero and $1.50/oz, Singapore’s...

Perth Mint Gold Scandal: Mint Regains Global Confidence

On Friday, spot gold fell to $3,343.00 per ounce (–0.7%) and U.S. futures slid to $3,344.50 (–0.9%) as the U.S. dollar index rebounded from a two-week low and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields ticked higher. Traders cheered news that the U.S. and EU are close to a negotiated tariff solution, and U.S. jobless claims dropped to a three-month low—signs that the Fed may hold rates steady rather than cut soon. While President Trump publicly urged Fed Chair Powell to lower rates, markets now price in only a September easing. Analysts say central-bank gold buying could underpin prices, but a fresh wave...

On Thursday, Azoria Capital—led by Trump ally James Fishback—filed suit in Washington, D.C., claiming the Federal Open Market Committee’s secret sessions breach a 1976 statute requiring public access. The complaint asks the court to compel the Fed to open its next policy meeting to the public. Azoria argues that real-time insight is essential for market participants to guard against abrupt rate changes and contends that the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates is driven by political bias against President Trump. This legal challenge comes as Trump himself visits the Fed today and continues to pressure Chair Powell over high interest rates.

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Perth Mint Gold Scandal: Mint Regains Global Confidence

Nearly half of the world’s central banks plan to boost their gold reserves over the next three years, driven by the economic and political uncertainty stoked by President Trump’s tariff-driven trade policies. Invesco’s research finds that 50% of monetary authorities view gold as a vital “reserve of resilience,” prized for its safe-haven status and political neutrality. A parallel World Gold Council survey shows 43% of central banks expect to increase holdings in the coming year, up from 29% a year ago.

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The Quiet Bank Run in Gold

In H1 2025, China imported and mined a combined 505.205 tonnes of gold for use in jewelry, investment, and industry—a drop of 3.54% from the 524 tonnes recorded in the first six months of 2024. The China Gold Association noted that slower consumer spending, tempered investor appetite, and muted industrial demand all contributed to the decline. Meanwhile, output from Chinese mines edged down by just 0.31% to 179.083 tonnes, reflecting steady but slightly reduced domestic production.

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After jobless claims for the week ending July 19 came in at 217,000—4,000 fewer than the prior week and below the 227,000 forecast—Treasury yields ticked higher across the curve. The benchmark 10-year yield rose to 4.434%, the 2-year to 3.923%, and the 30-year to 4.978%. Investors are weighing these signs of labor-market strength alongside President Trump’s July 24 visit to the Fed—an event not seen in nearly two decades—and renewed optimism about an impending U.S.–EU trade deal following the recent framework with Japan.

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