J.P. Morgan Economist Raises U.S. Recession Risk to 40%

Bruce Kasman, J.P. Morgan’s chief global economist, has expressed heightened concern about the U.S. economy, raising the probability of a recession in 2025 to 40%, up from his earlier 30% estimate. Speaking to reporters in Singapore, Kasman maintained J.P. Morgan’s current forecast of 2% GDP growth but warned this could deteriorate significantly if President Trump’s threatened reciprocal tariffs materialize in April, potentially pushing recession risk to 50% or higher. His concerns align with broader economic sentiment, as 95% of economists surveyed across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico believe Trump’s tariff policies have increased recession risks. Other major investment banks have […]

Beyond Bird Flu: The Complex Factors Keeping Egg Prices at Record Highs

Egg prices hit a record high of $5.90 per dozen in February 2025, up from $2.50 a year earlier, with a 10% increase in February alone following January’s 15% rise. While bird flu is the primary driver—killing nearly 40 million commercial egg-laying hens in 2024—other factors like production costs, supply-demand dynamics, and potential market manipulation are also contributing. The Justice Department is investigating whether large producers have artificially inflated prices, though the American Egg Board maintains the price spike is solely due to bird flu disruptions.

BRICS Unity Fractures as India Rejects De-Dollarization Push

The BRICS economic alliance is showing internal divisions over de-dollarization efforts, with India emerging as a key dissenter. Despite the bloc’s long-standing goal to reduce reliance on the US dollar, India’s foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has stated they have “no interest” in replacing the dollar for BRICS trade settlements, calling it a “source of international economic stability.” This fracture within BRICS comes amid increased tensions with the West, particularly as President Trump threatens 150% tariffs.

February PPI Flat Despite 53% Egg Price Surge, Trade Tariffs Loom

February’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures wholesale prices, showed no change from January, surprising economists who had predicted a 0.3% increase. This flat reading resulted from counterbalancing forces: gas prices fell by 4.7% while egg prices surged dramatically by 53.6%. The report indicates inflation pressures are easing faster than anticipated, following January’s revised 0.6% increase. However, this positive inflation outlook is now overshadowed by President Trump’s March actions imposing, revoking, and threatening various tariffs against U.S. trading partners, which could drive prices higher if implemented. As a leading indicator of consumer inflation, the PPI data may influence the Federal […]

Trade War Uncorked: Trump Threatens 200% Tariff on European Wines

President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 200% tariff on wine, champagne, and other alcoholic beverages from France and the European Union, dramatically escalating tensions in an emerging transatlantic trade war. The threat, made via social media on Thursday, would be implemented if Brussels proceeds with retaliatory taxes on American whiskey exports – a response to Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs that went into effect Wednesday. European alcohol producers saw immediate market impacts, with shares of LVMH dropping 2.2%, Remy Cointreau falling 4.5%, and Pernod Ricard declining 3.6%. France’s trade minister Laurent Saint-Martin responded firmly, saying France “will not […]

Macquarie Analysts: Gold Could Surge 19% to $3,500 by Q3 as Safe-Haven Demand Grows

Macquarie Group analysts predict gold could reach a record high of $3,500 per ounce in the third quarter, averaging around $3,150 during that period. Currently trading at $2,940, gold has already risen 12% this year amid geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about President Trump’s tariff policies. The analysts attribute this bullish outlook to growing investor preference for gold’s lack of credit or counterparty risk, with additional support expected from a potentially widening U.S. deficit and resilient physical demand despite high prices. Both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have also raised their gold targets to $3,100 and $3,000 respectively.

Silver Climbs to Five-Month High as Trade Tensions and Recession Fears Mount

Silver prices have climbed to a near five-month high of $33.40 per troy ounce, continuing upward momentum for the third consecutive session. The precious metal is benefiting from increased safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions following President Trump’s new steel and aluminum tariffs and his comments about the economy being in a “transition period.” Additionally, February’s lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data has strengthened speculation about earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts, further boosting the non-interest-bearing metal as the U.S. dollar remains under pressure.

Tariff Uncertainty Pushes Gold Within $13 of Record Price

Gold prices are holding near record levels, trading at $2,942.92 an ounce on Thursday—just $13 shy of February’s all-time high. The precious metal has gained 12% this year, bolstered by uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policies and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Despite unchanged producer prices in February and falling jobless claims, analysts predict gold will reach $3,000-$3,200 this year as the Fed is expected to resume cutting rates in June, which typically benefits gold by reducing opportunity costs. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its current 4.25%-4.50% interest rate range next week, having already cut rates […]

US Budget Deficit Soars to $1.147 Trillion in First Five Months of Fiscal 2025

The US budget deficit has reached a record $1.147 trillion in the first five months of fiscal 2025, exceeding the previous high of $1.047 trillion set during the COVID-19 pandemic. February 2025—President Trump’s first full month after his January inauguration—saw a $307 billion deficit, up 4% from last year. Despite record February tax receipts of $296 billion (a 9% increase), government spending reached $603 billion (up 6%) due to rising costs for debt interest, Social Security, and healthcare. Trump’s new tariffs and promised spending cuts have shown little impact so far. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, […]

Macquarie Analysts: Gold Set for Record $3,500 Amid U.S. Deficit Concerns

Macquarie Group analysts, led by Marcus Garvey, forecast gold could surge to an unprecedented $3,500 per ounce during the third quarter, with an average price of $3,150. Currently trading around $2,940, gold has already gained 12% this year, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about President Trump’s tariff policies. The analysts attribute gold’s strength to investors and institutions increasingly valuing its lack of credit or counterparty risk. The precious metal is expected to find additional support from a worsening U.S. budget outlook that signals potential inflation increases, making gold more attractive as a hedge. Despite elevated prices, the physical market […]