Large-Cap Stocks Lead Massive Return to U.S. Equities Despite Tariff Fears

U.S. equity funds experienced their strongest weekly inflows since November, with investors adding a net $22.24 billion in the week through March 26, completely reversing the previous week’s $33.53 billion outflow. This surge in investment came as markets responded positively to signals that the Trump administration might take a more measured approach to tariffs, shifting investor focus toward potential corporate earnings growth. However, market volatility returned later in the week when President Trump announced a 25% import tax on foreign-made vehicles and auto parts. Large-cap equity funds were the primary beneficiary, attracting $23.1 billion and reversing their previous week’s $27.38 […]

Warning: Today’s Stock Disconnect Preceded Six out of Eight Past Bear Markets

The S&P 500 is having its worst month since September 2023, and Jim Paulsen has identified a concerning signal: S&P 500 stocks are moving independently of each other at levels not seen in 25 years. This “low correlation” environment typically occurs when market breadth narrows (few stocks leading the market), during monetary tightening, and often as bull markets mature. Historical data shows this pattern has preceded trouble – six of eight bear markets since 1980 started when correlation was below average, as it is today. When stocks have been this disconnected (bottom quartile of correlation), future S&P 500 returns averaged […]

Economists Lower 2025 Growth Expectations as Inflation Concerns Linger

Economists now expect slower US growth in 2025 – just 2% for the year instead of the previously predicted 2.3%, according to Bloomberg’s latest survey. The first three months of 2025 look particularly weak, with growth expected at only 1.2%, down from earlier forecasts of 2.2%. This slowdown is happening because both consumers and businesses are spending less money due to uncertainty about President Trump’s changing trade policies. At the same time, inflation is expected to reach 2.8% by year-end, higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Because of this persistent inflation, the Fed is being cautious about cutting interest […]

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Stubbornly Holds at 2.5%, Tariff Impact Still to Come

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, held steady at 2.5% year-over-year in February, matching January’s rate. Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, came in at 2.8% annually and 0.4% monthly, slightly exceeding economists’ expectations of 2.7% and 0.3% respectively. Consumer spending showed resilience, increasing 0.4% in February after January’s 0.3% decline, while inflation-adjusted disposable income rose 0.5% monthly and 1.8% annually. Fed officials remain cautious about inflation’s outlook, not expecting a return to their 2% target until 2027. Boston Fed President Susan Collins acknowledged upcoming tariffs will likely increase inflation […]

Global Stocks Tumble While Safe Havens Rally

Global stock markets tumbled Friday as President Trump’s announcement of 25% auto tariffs fueled fears of an escalating trade war, while gold reached new record highs as investors sought safe-haven assets. Asian markets were hit particularly hard, with Japan’s Nikkei falling nearly 2% as Toyota and Honda shares dropped sharply. South Korea’s Kospi similarly declined 2%, while Europe’s STOXX 600 edged down with its automotive sector logging its sixth straight week of losses. Automakers including Volvo, Audi, Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai have begun relocating production in response to the tariffs. Markets remain anxious ahead of April 2, when reciprocal measures against […]

The Paradox of Silver: Strong Fundamentals, Weak Performance, and Misunderstood Markets

While gold has surged 36% over the past year, silver has only risen 27%, underperforming at what should be a moment of significant outperformance. Ross Norman, of Metalsdaily.com contends that the “manipulation” narrative misunderstands how markets actually work, as banks maintain neutral positions through offsetting physical and futures positions. This persistent negative messaging leaves silver “friendless” in the market despite strong fundamentals. The constant claims of manipulation deter potential investors from entering the market, making them distrust not the alleged manipulators but the messengers themselves.

Is $4,000 Gold “Just Around the Corner”? JPMorgan Analysts Think So

Wall Street continues to raise its bullish outlook on gold as the precious metal reaches new heights. Bank of America has increased its price target from $3,000 to $3,500 per ounce over the next 18 months, based on projections of 10% growth in investments through increased buying from China, central banks, and physically backed ETFs. This follows Macquarie Group’s similar $3,500 forecast for Q3 2025. JPMorgan analysts have noted the unprecedented speed of gold’s price increases, with the move from $2,500 to $3,000 taking just 210 days compared to the historical average of 1,700 days for $500 increments. They suggest […]

Mark Cuban Predicts “Red Rural Recession” for Small-Town America

Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban has sparked controversy with his prediction of an imminent “Red Rural Recession” if the Trump administration continues its current course of action. In a post on Bluesky that gained significant attention, Cuban warned that federal budget cuts, widespread firings, cancellation of grants and contracts with companies, and office closures will have outsized negative impacts on small towns and rural areas across America. According to Cuban, these actions will disproportionately affect smaller communities, potentially turning their financial situations “upside down” and leading to serious economic consequences in rural America.

Citi “Very Bullish” on Silver as April 3 Tariff Announcement Looms

Gold and silver prices have surged to new cyclical highs, with gold breaking past its March 20 record of $3,057.50 and silver climbing above $34.24, approaching its October high of $34.87. This rally is primarily driven by concerns about the upcoming “Liberation Day” tariffs scheduled for April 3, which markets appear to be underpricing according to Citi analysts. The potential for higher-than-expected reciprocal tariffs is creating bullish conditions for precious metals. While current silver price differentials between U.S. and U.K. markets imply tariffs of 3-6%, Citi is “very bullish” on silver’s prospects if actual tariffs reach 15-30%. This expectation of […]

Safe-Haven Gold Soars Past $3,080 Amid Growing Trade War Concerns

Gold has hit a record high of $3,086.21 an ounce as investors seek safety amid trade tensions following President Trump’s upcoming April 2 reciprocal tariffs. These measures have sparked concerns about inflation, slower economic growth, and trade conflicts. Heading for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, gold’s rise is fueled by safe-haven demand, central bank buying in Asia, and growing institutional investment in gold-backed ETFs. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank notes gold’s enduring value as a wealth preserver during market turbulence. Investors are watching upcoming U.S. inflation data for Federal Reserve policy clues, with analyst Alexander Zumpfe projecting gold could reach […]