Retailers Cannot Shield Shoppers from Tariff Costs for Long

May’s Consumer Price Index report is expected to show the first real impact of import tariffs on American shoppers. While overall inflation stayed modest at 0.2% monthly growth, core inflation (excluding food and energy) is projected to jump 0.3% – the biggest increase in four months. The timing tells the story: retailers had been selling pre-tariff inventory through April, but May marks when those cheaper goods ran out. Major retailers like Walmart have already announced price hikes, with economists warning this is just the beginning of tariff-driven inflation that could last through year-end. The data comes as the Bureau of […]

Recession 2025: Why Economists Can’t Agree on What’s Coming Next

The U.S. economy faces mixed signals about a potential 2025 recession. Warning signs include a 0.2% GDP contraction in Q1 2025, slowing consumer spending, and President Trump’s tariff policies driving inflation. The unemployment rate is projected to rise above natural levels through 2027, while 83% of CEOs expect a recession within 18 months. The yield curve has been inverted since July 2022, traditionally a recession predictor. However, positive indicators persist. Unemployment remains relatively low at 4.2%, retail sales jumped 1.4% in March, and the Federal Reserve maintains steady interest rates. Some economists suggest we’re experiencing a “vibecession” – where negative […]

Rising Debt, Rising Doubts: Why Investors Are Questioning U.S. Treasury Bonds

Despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent assurance that the U.S. will “never” default on its debt, history tells a different story. The U.S. has actually failed to meet its financial obligations several times since 1789, including during the War of 1812, the Civil War, and the 1933 gold clause abrogation under FDR. With U.S. debt-to-GDP now above 120% and rising, concerns about long-term default risk are growing. Recent Treasury bond market behavior reflects this anxiety, with 30-year yields jumping sharply in spring 2025. While default isn’t imminent, the article warns that dismissing this possibility entirely is no longer prudent.

Gold Shines as Dollar’s Grip on Global Reserves Weakens to 58%

According to a new ECB report, the dollar’s role as the dominant global reserve currency is steadily eroding, falling from 68% to 58% over the past decade. In 2024 alone, it lost 2 percentage points of market share. However, the euro has struggled to capitalize on this shift, maintaining its roughly 20% share while smaller currencies and gold have been the primary beneficiaries. Central banks worldwide are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against uncertainty, purchasing over 1,000 metric tons in 2024—double the previous decade’s average. This surge reflects growing concerns about geopolitical risks and the need for portfolio […]

The Hidden Chart Pattern That’s Predicted Every Silver Boom

Silver just flashed a rare breakout signal — Mike explains why this could lead to triple-digit prices.

US Core Inflation Rises Just 0.1% in May, Below Expectations

US core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose just 0.1% in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of lower-than-expected increases. This suggests businesses aren’t passing on higher tariff costs to consumers. Key points: – Annual core inflation stands at 2.8% – Goods prices remained flat, with declines in cars and clothing – Service prices rose modestly (0.2%), with drops in airfares and hotels – Markets reacted positively: Treasury bonds rallied, the dollar fell, and stocks rose – Traders now see a 75% chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September The weaker inflation data strengthens the case for […]

Your Chance to Learn from Mike Maloney Face-to-Face

For years, Mike Maloney has turned down speaking engagements and group events, preferring to focus on research and creating educational content for the GoldSilver community.  But now, he’s making an exception.  Mike will spend an entire week aboard a luxury cruise ship at the Investor Summit at Sea, working directly with a small group of investors. This isn’t your typical conference where speakers disappear after their presentation. Instead, you’ll share meals with Mike, attend intimate workshops, and have those impromptu deck conversations where the real insights happen.  An All-Star Lineup  Mike won’t be alone. He’ll be joined by:  Together, they’ll […]

US-China Reach Framework Agreement in London Talks on Trade Relations

Following recent diplomatic tensions, US and Chinese officials met in London to establish what Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called “a framework to implement the Geneva consensus” from last month’s meeting. The two-day talks aimed to eliminate negativity and create a path forward for broader negotiations. The emerging agreement appears to involve a quid pro quo: China would speed up shipments of rare earth metals crucial for global supply chains, while the US would relax some export restrictions on semiconductors. While the immediate focus is on defusing current trade frictions, both sides expressed hope for future discussions on larger issues like […]

US-China Trade Talks Back on Track After London Meeting Breakthrough

The US and China have reached an agreement on a framework to resume trade negotiations after recent disputes threatened to derail talks. Following two days of meetings in London, senior negotiators from both countries found a way forward on issues related to mineral and technology exports. While the fundamental issue of China’s trade surplus with the US remains unresolved, both sides expressed optimism about moving past recent tensions. The breakthrough followed a phone call between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, and Asian stock markets responded positively to the news.

Gold Strengthens 0.4% as Markets Await Inflation Data and Trade Progress

Gold strengthened on Wednesday, gaining 0.4% to reach $3,336.20 per ounce, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid continuing uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations. While officials from both countries announced progress on a framework to revive their trade truce and eliminate China’s rare earth export restrictions, the lack of concrete resolution to longstanding trade disputes kept markets cautious. The ongoing trade tensions, which began with tit-for-tat tariffs in April, continue to support gold prices. Investors are also closely watching the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report for insights into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy, with most economists expecting rates to […]