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Recession 2025: Why Economists Can’t Agree on What’s Coming Next

The U.S. economy faces mixed signals about a potential 2025 recession. Warning signs include a 0.2% GDP contraction in Q1 2025, slowing consumer spending, and President Trump’s tariff policies driving inflation. The unemployment rate is projected to rise above natural levels through 2027, while 83% of CEOs expect a recession within 18 months. The yield curve has been inverted since July 2022, traditionally a recession predictor.

However, positive indicators persist. Unemployment remains relatively low at 4.2%, retail sales jumped 1.4% in March, and the Federal Reserve maintains steady interest rates. Some economists suggest we’re experiencing a “vibecession” – where negative sentiment doesn’t match actual economic fundamentals. Financial expert Julia Khandoshko advises preparing for a downturn regardless of predictions: reduce unnecessary expenses, delay major purchases, pay down debt, and build emergency savings. The economic outlook remains genuinely uncertain, with compelling arguments on both sides.

Australian Gold Kangaroo coin standing on edge against an open legal volume, representing Perth Mint's statutory guarantee
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Australian Gold Kangaroo: The Bullion Coin Backed by an Act of Parliament

Perth Mint’s flagship bullion coin changes its reverse almost every year, which is the least interesting thing about it. At 99.99% purity with an uncapped mintage, the Australian Gold Kangaroo coin sits behind a guarantee written into Western Australian statute in 1987. Here is what that actually means for what you own.

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